After the Lunar New Year of the ox, the price of domestic aggregate MDI market rose sharply. The price rise lasted for more than 10 days. Basically, the quotation only lasted for half a day, and then rose again on the same day. In March, as soon as the guidance prices of Wanhua and kostrong came out, they were lower than the market prices at that time, and the market prices declined. What changes will aggregate MDI market face next?

 

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the market price of domestic aggregate MDI was 19300 yuan / ton on February 19 after the festival, and 25750 yuan / ton as of March 4, with an increase of 33.52%. The highest price in the cycle was 27750 yuan / ton on February 26, with an amplitude of 43.78%. From March 1 to March 4, the price of domestic aggregate MDI market fell by 4.98%, and traders generally responded that “open a single talk mode, profit margins are basically exhausted, low price goods are sold out, and the price is back on the rising track”. It seems to indicate that a new round of rise is already in the pipeline.

On the upstream side, pure benzene: the pure benzene market is high, and the downstream enterprises in Shandong just need to take the goods, but the overall inventory of Shandong Dilian is low, and the price is relatively strong. Aniline: the aniline Market is stable and small, individual enterprises increase the ex factory price, but I heard that the overhaul time of Shandong’s main enterprises is delayed, and other aniline manufacturers are mainly stable in shipment. It is not difficult to see from the price comparison index chart of business community that the price rise and fall trend of raw material pure benzene and aniline is closely related to the price rise and fall trend of polymerized MDI market. The price of pure benzene is still at a high level, and the market of aniline is on the upward trend. It is expected that the market price of polymerized MDI will still rise slightly in the short term.

 

In terms of devices, domestic devices: the heavy bus device is scheduled to start maintenance on February 27, with a duration of about one month; the technical transformation of Wanhua Yantai device is successful, with the capacity expanded to 1.1 million tons / year. Foreign devices: the market understands that the first quarter maintenance plan of Huntsman devices in the United States.

 

In the future, traders are full of confidence, and the low price supply has been exhausted. Business community aggregation MDI analysts expect that the short-term domestic aggregation MDI market may still rise again.

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In recent years, the domestic methanol market has been rising slowly. Under the situation that the whole bulk market is greatly improving, the performance of methanol market seems to be “out of place”: the price growth is slow, the market rise is small, and the performance of methanol market seems to be “half shot slow”. With the approach of spring inspection, the trend of domestic methanol market regionalization is obvious.

 

In the mainland market, some upstream enterprises in the northwest main production areas and other places still have inventory, strong willingness to ship, low reception mood in the downstream, and price decline. Due to the continuous rise of crude oil and the impact of global inflation expectations, most of the bulk commodities have climbed to the highest level in the past three years, the commodity linkage has been enhanced, and the higher methanol futures has led to the rise of port spot. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, as of March 3, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 2332 yuan / ton, up 4.13% month on month and 16.48% year on year.

 

As of 3.3, methanol market price summary by Region:

 

Region, price

Qinghai Area/

Shanxi Province 1930-1970 yuan / ton factory cash

Liaoning area: 2200 yuan / ton

Fujian area: 2510-2530 yuan / ton

RMB 2300-2350 / T in the two lakes area

Anhui region 2310-2320 yuan / ton factory acceptance

Henan Province: RMB 2130-2140 yuan / ton

In terms of upstream and downstream, the formaldehyde market has not yet fully resumed production, and the price of the areas that have resumed work has risen in a wide range; the dimethyl ether Market has fallen sharply, and the transaction is slightly light; the domestic acetic acid market has risen sharply to the highest point in nearly a decade; the price of MTBE has continued to rise, with an increase of 150-350 yuan / ton.

 

In terms of external market, as of March 2, the closing price of methanol in CFR China was 307.00-308.00 US dollars / ton, and that in CFR Southeast Asia was 382.00-383.00 US dollars / ton. US Gulf methanol closed at 115.00-116.00 cents / gallon, up 1 cent / gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol closed at 335.50-336.50 euros / ton, down 0.5 euro / ton.

 

Region, country, closing price, up and down

Asia, China, 307.00-308.00 USD / T, 0 USD / T

Asia, Southeast Asia, 382.00-383.00 USD / T, 0 USD / T

U.S. – U.S. Gulf, 115.00-116.00 cents / gal, 1 cent / gal

Europe – FOB Rotterdam, 335.50-336.50 euro / ton, – 0.5 euro / ton

In the future, on the supply side, as spring overhaul is approaching, overhaul plans of methanol enterprises in the mainland are coming out one after another; foreign plants are recovering, and imports are expected to increase in March. In terms of demand, the Ministry of formaldehyde started or recovered in succession. Business community methanol analysts expect that the domestic methanol market in the short term consolidation.

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After the Spring Festival, the antimony ingot market continued to develop, and the price went up all the way. In the environment of most non-ferrous products going down on March 1, the antimony ingot price stood out.

 

According to the price monitoring of the business community, on March 1, 2021, there were 5 kinds of commodities in the non-ferrous plate that rose month on month, among which there were 3 kinds of commodities that rose by more than 5%, accounting for 13.6% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top 3 commodities that rose were dysprosium ferroalloy (5.79%), dysprosium oxide (5.56%) and antimony (5.29%). There were 8 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products were lead (- 1.91%), silver (- 1.87%) and gold (- 1.40%). The average daily rise and fall was 0.32%. In addition to antimony, cobalt and rare earth products, other non-ferrous products prices fell.

 

Antimony related products will enter a new rising cycle after the opening of the festival. This round of rising is not only the continuation of the rising trend before the festival, but also the beginning of a new cycle. In view of the current market situation, the overall construction of domestic antimony mines is on the low side, and the shortage of supply has not changed significantly. At present, domestic manufacturers mainly rely on imported raw materials. Affected by foreign public health events, the situation of imported antimony ore is not optimistic. The overall decline in 2020 is about 30% compared with that in 2019. Coupled with the limited transport capacity during the Spring Festival, the main domestic antimony ingot manufacturers are in a state of shortage of raw materials, manufacturers are reluctant to sell, and the operating rate is generally low.

 

In the future, the business community believes that it is difficult to alleviate the short-term situation of tight supply at the ore end. When it is difficult for manufacturers to obtain raw materials, they can only continuously increase the ex factory price to achieve the purpose of reluctant to sell, so as to alleviate the pressure brought by the difficulty in obtaining raw materials. Therefore, the price of antimony ingot may start a new rising cycle.

 

related data

 

Antimony is a kind of small metal which is scarce in the world. It is called China’s four strategic resources together with rare earth, tungsten and tin. It is mainly affected by its wide use and irreplaceable. It is widely used in various flame retardant materials, alloys, glass, semiconductor components, medicine and chemical industry, national defense and military industry and other fields. In 2016, the Ministry of land and resources issued the national mineral resources planning (2016-2020), which included 24 minerals such as antimony in the strategic mineral catalogue.

 

According to the latest customs data, China’s import volume of antimony ingots in December 2020 was 117 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 83%, and the export volume decreased by about 70%.

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Recently, the domestic ethanol market has risen slightly, and the market performance of different regions is different. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, as of March 1, the domestic ethanol market price was 7262 yuan / ton, with a month on month rise of 1.57% and a year-on-year rise of 27.64%.

 

In terms of regional market conditions, Henan’s ethanol market was weak; Northeast’s ethanol market was up; East China and Shandong’s ethanol market was up; Dongguan’s ethanol market in South China was up; Sichuan’s corn ethanol market was high; Anhui’s corn ethanol market was up; Dongguan’s cassava ethanol market was up; most cassava ethanol enterprises in Yunnan shut down and the market was down The transaction was limited, and the molasses ethanol market in Guangxi rose.

 

From the perspective of raw material corn, the raw material corn market remains strong after the festival. At present, the corn gap is still large, and the import of grain to Hong Kong is limited. Downstream, the domestic ethyl acetate Market rose sharply to the highest point in nearly a decade.

 

Latest price trends of ethanol market in different regions:

 

Region, category, price

Shandong Province ﹣ general grade ﹣ 7150 yuan / ton

Shandong Province ﹣ excellent grade ﹣ 7600-7800 yuan / ton

Shandong Province: 7900-8000 yuan / ton

In southern Jiangsu Province, the average price is 7300-7350 yuan / ton

In the south of Jiangsu Province, ﹣ 7350-7450 yuan / ton

In Northern Jiangsu Province, the average price is 6950 yuan / ton

About 7300-7350 yuan / ton of corn in Anhui Province

About 7100-7200 yuan / ton of cassava in Anhui Province

In Anhui Province, the price is about 8150-8200 yuan / ton

Henan Province ﹣ excellent grade ﹣ 7070-7100 yuan / ton, tax included

Anhydrous ethanol in Henan Province: 7900-8000 yuan / ton, tax included

Hebei Province: 7450-7500 yuan / ton

In Hebei area, the coal quality is less than 7600 yuan / ton

In Guangxi, the consumption of honey alcohol is 7250-7300 yuan / ton

Cassava alcohol in Guangxi is 6900-7150 yuan / ton

Guangxi region: anhydrous ethanol: 7800 yuan / ton

About 7000-7400 yuan / ton of cassava alcohol in Guangdong

There are about 8100-8150 anhydrous cassava ethanol in Guangdong Province

In Heilongjiang Province, the general grade of corn alcohol is 6500-6600 yuan / ton, including tax

Jilin Province ﹣ 6650 yuan / ton of ordinary alcohol, tax included

About 7600-7700 yuan / ton of corn alcohol in Sichuan, including tax

About 6700-6800 yuan / ton of molasses alcohol in Yunnan

About 6800-6900 yuan / ton of cassava alcohol in Yunnan

The high price of corn has become the norm. Due to the possibility of small fluctuation in the increase of supply, the overall trend will continue to run at a high level. In the near future, the operation rate of ethyl acetate in the downstream has increased. Business community ethanol analysts expect short-term, domestic ethanol market price regional trend is obvious

PVA

1、 Price trend

 

This week, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong increased from 2186.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2193.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.3%, and a year-on-year increase of 25.57%. Overall, the urea market rose this week, with the urea commodity index at 102.02 on February 26.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. Yangmei plain urea quoted 2200 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2180 yuan / ton this weekend, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 2200 yuan / ton this weekend, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of the week.

 

On the demand side: the agricultural demand started in succession, the willingness of terminal purchasing gradually increased, and the topdressing increased in some areas due to the favorable rainy weather; the starting load of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants increased, and the new orders were followed up appropriately, and there was still demand potential in the later industry. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 72.5%, and the daily output is about 160000 tons. The pressure on manufacturers to ship is not big. With the gradual recovery of logistics and transportation, the inventory accumulated during the festival is also declining.

 

From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain: the upstream products of urea have mutual rise and fall this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas dropped slightly, from 2976.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2840.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 4.59%, a year-on-year decrease of 10.97%; the price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 3300.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3376.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.32% , a year-on-year increase of 23.54%. This week, the quotation of melamine in the lower reaches of urea rose from 7200.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7400.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 2.78%, 24.72% year on year compared with the same period last year. Overall, urea cost support is weak this week.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

In the first ten days of March, the urea market in Shandong may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand is gradually increasing, the industrial demand is better, the urea supply is increasing, the international urea price is rising, and the domestic urea market is expected to rise slightly in the short term.

PVA