Recent trend of urea price

As can be seen from the figure above, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose this week, from 2273.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2320.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 2.05%, and a year-on-year increase of 42.33%. On the whole, the urea market rose this week. The urea commodity index was 107.91 on May 21, with an upward trend over the weekend.

The upstream support is general, the downstream demand is good, and the supply side is tight

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. The price of urea in Yangmei plain this weekend is 2320 yuan / ton, which is 50 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2310 yuan / ton this weekend, which was 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 2330 yuan / ton this weekend, up 70 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain, it seems that the upstream products of urea have mutual rise and fall this week: the price of liquefied natural gas has dropped sharply, from 3860.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3566.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 7.60%, a year-on-year increase of 33.75%; The price of steam coal dropped slightly, from 942.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 935.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.80%, up 78.69% year on year compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 3846.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3920.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 1.91%, 27.14% over the same period last year. This week, the quotation of melamine in the lower reaches of urea fell sharply, from 15066.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 13900.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 7.74%.

From the perspective of demand, the agricultural demand of different regions has been followed up; The start-up load of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet plants increased slightly, most of them were used as they were mined, and the manufacturers had less inventory. From the supply side: in recent years, some enterprises in Shandong, Xinjiang, Shaanxi and other places have been overhauled, and the supply side has been tightened. At the same time, the enterprise inventory and social inventory have also been maintained at a low position. India bid: India RCF issued a new round of urea import bidding on May 18 and opened the bid on May 25. Purchase quantity and price will affect the next domestic urea market trend. On the whole, the urea cost support this week is general, the downstream demand is better, and the urea supply is tight.

More profits, more stable prices in the future

In late May, the urea market in Shandong may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand is rising and the industrial demand is also rising slightly, but the supply of urea is tight. It is expected that the domestic urea market will not meet the demand in the short term, and the market price will fluctuate slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the block data list of business news agency, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on May 24 was 5333.33 yuan / ton, up 0.95% from the previous day and 2.56% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Looking back last week, the supply of raw material yellow phosphorus was short of demand, and the price soared. The phosphoric acid market was cautious and had the intention to increase. On the 24th, the yellow phosphorus market price continued to rise, breaking through 20000 yuan, with a one-day increase of about 13%. The cost support was strong, so the phosphoric acid market price rose, with the range of 50-700 yuan / ton, and some enterprises’ quotations rose above 6000 yuan, There are also some enterprises that have not offered new prices yet, but tend to increase obviously, and the overall market focus has moved up. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of May 24, the quotation in Sichuan was 4950-5650 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was 4800-5650 yuan / ton, that in Beijing was 4800 yuan / ton, that in Hubei was 5600-6200 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin was 5900 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was 5800 yuan / ton, and that in Henan was 5500-5600 yuan / ton, The price of phosphoric acid has increased in different areas.

On May 24, the reference price of phosphate rock was 510.00, up 6.25% compared with 480.00 on May 1. At present, the overall trading atmosphere of the market is good, and the yellow phosphorus Market in the lower reaches is also slightly pushed up, which is effectively supported by the upper and lower reaches. Therefore, the phosphorus ore analysts of the business community believe that the domestic phosphorus ore market will continue to be strong in the short term.

Yellow phosphorus, in late May, the price of yellow phosphorus rose rapidly. Affected by drought, lack of water and power restriction in Yunnan, the power of yellow phosphorus enterprises in some areas was less than 20%! Recently, power rationing has not been alleviated, but has become more and more serious. More yellow phosphorus plants are shut down, the shortage of spot goods is aggravating, and some manufacturers have temporarily stopped making external quotations. On the demand side, the downstream glyphosate price continued to rise, which was acceptable to the high price of yellow phosphorus, and played a certain role in boosting the price rise of yellow phosphorus. So far, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 25000 yuan / ton; The mainstream price in Sichuan is about 23000-25000 yuan / ton; The mainstream price in Guizhou is about 21000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analysts of the chemical branch of business society, the supply of raw material yellow phosphorus exceeds the demand, and the soaring price drives the price trend of phosphoric acid. The enterprises actively follow the trend, and some enterprises close their offer and stop reporting. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will continue to rise in the short term under the strong support of cost.

According to the data monitored by the business society, the average price of the main domestic light potassium carbonate factory tax included in the early Zhou was 6750.00 yuan / ton, and the average price of the domestic light potassium carbonate mainstream factory tax included in the factory was 6720.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, down 0.44%, and the current price fell 2.21% on a month basis, and the current price rose 7.52% year on year.

The domestic market of potassium carbonate has declined in recent years. The market of potassium carbonate market is generally supplied with the same source of goods, the downstream is maintaining the demand, the mood of goods preparation is weak, the purchasing intention is low, the trading atmosphere of potassium carbonate is flat, and the market is slightly down. According to statistics of business agency: the main ex factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 6400-7000 yuan / ton (quotation is for reference only), and different prices are offered according to the purchase situation.

Recently, the quotation of the mainstream manufacturers of potassium chloride is at a high level: on May 21, the KCl equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. was in normal operation. The factory quotation is about 2400 yuan / ton, and the quotation is stable temporarily, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. On May 21, the sales price of potassium chloride of Anhui Badao Chemical Co., Ltd. was about 2650 yuan / ton, and the quotation was stable temporarily, and the actual transaction price was mainly negotiated. Recently, the potassium chloride market was in high consolidation, and port inventory continued to decrease, and the price remained high.

The analysts of potassium carbonate of business agency believe that the domestic potassium chloride market is in a state of stop sale and waiting in the near future. Large traders mainly cherish the sale and the cost is supported well. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will be mainly increased in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to be seen（ The above prices are provided by major manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of business society. For reference only, please contact relevant manufacturers for more details.

This week (5.17-5.21) the market of NBR showed a small decline. According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of NBR was 20400 yuan / ton as of May 21, which was 0.97% lower than 20600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

This week, the domestic nitrile rubber showed a slight decline, and the ex factory price of Lanhua nitrile rubber was stable. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of May 21, the ex factory price of Lanzhou Petrochemical nitrile rubber n41e was 17700 yuan / ton; At present, 3305e offers 18800 yuan / ton; At present, 3308e offers 19700 yuan / ton. This month, India made a final anti-dumping decision on China related NBR. The export market of NBR was slightly blocked, and domestic demand was still just to be stabilized. Some businesses offered a small adjustment to the shipping negotiations. At present, according to the monitoring of business news agency, the mainstream market of Lanhua nitrile 3305 was 20000 yuan, the mainstream market of Nandi 1052 was 22000 yuan / ton, the mainstream market of Russia 3365 was 18400 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market of South Korea lg6250 was 18800 yuan / ton.

The price of raw material butadiene rose slightly, with more impact. As of May 21, butadiene price was 7006 yuan / ton, up 2.31% from 6848 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Future forecast: NBR analysts of the business community believe that the relative pressure on the supply side is not big, and the price has dropped sharply in the early stage, so it is expected that the NBR market will be stable in the later stage.

At present, the international oil price has fallen sharply, the price of pure benzene and caprolactam has increased, the delivery of cyclohexanone in the spot market is not smooth, and the market has slightly dropped. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, as of May 20, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market was 11100 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 7.35% and a year-on-year increase of 90.39%.

As of May 20, domestic cyclohexanone market summary:

region ., Price

East China 11400-11500 yuan / ton in cash

South China 11600 yuan / ton in cash

Shandong Province 11000-11250 yuan / ton in cash

In terms of raw materials, Sinopec increased the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan / ton, and implemented 8200 yuan / ton, which was implemented by all its refineries. The price is effective from May 12. Downstream, Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam price this week increased by 200 yuan / ton to 14700 yuan / ton (liquid high-grade products will be accepted in June).

The upstream and downstream support was weak, the wait-and-see mood was high, the pressure of cyclohexanone was high, and the transaction center was frustrated. Business community cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will be weak in the short term.