Yesterday (2.2) the domestic aggregate MDI market was at a high level. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the current domestic aggregate MDI market price is about 19075 yuan / ton. In terms of raw materials, the pure benzene plant was overhauled out of plan in February, and the business atmosphere was strong, and the market transaction was active; the inventory of aniline enterprises was controllable, and the aniline Market was mainly strong. In terms of enterprises, the weekly quoted price of Shanghai Corus is aggregated in the distribution market, and the guiding price of MDI this week is 19500 yuan / ton, so the supply continues to be tight. In terms of market and regional prices, Wanhua’s negotiated price is about 19500-19700 yuan / ton, while Shanghai’s negotiated price is about 19500 yuan / ton. (including tax, the price of barreled goods will be raised)

In the future, the domestic aggregate MDI market continued to maintain a high level, and the industry gradually withdrew from the market, with few inquiries and transactions. Factory weekly guidance price increases and tight supply, domestic and foreign parts of the device maintenance plan in the first quarter, the industry more bullish outlook. Business community aggregation MDI analysts expect that before the festival, the domestic aggregation MDI market fluctuates little.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of February 2, the average price of domestic rubber grade high-grade silica was 4700.00 yuan / ton. The market is cold near the holiday, and the downstream just needs to purchase, so the demand has not improved significantly. The overall market supply and demand balance, the quotation range is between 4000-5000 yuan / ton, the shipment is smooth, and the inventory is sufficient.

Domestic rubber grade silica market is mainly stable operation, contract orders, just need procurement, procurement atmosphere is flat, the number of new orders is limited, and most of them are mainly discussed. At present, the shipment is smooth, the negotiation atmosphere is general, the merchants take the goods carefully, and the shipment is slow. The latest enterprise price is Shandong Lihua 4600 yuan / ton, Boai xiang4200 yuan / ton, Shandong Shouguang 5300 yuan / ton

In the upstream hydrochloric acid market, the quotation of manufacturers is temporarily stable, the trend is mainly stable, the purchasing enthusiasm is general, the trading atmosphere is maintained at the early level, and the hydrochloric acid market is mainly stable in the short term.

On February 1, the chemical industry index was 856 points, up 3 points from yesterday, down 15.75% from 1016 points (2012-03-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 43.14% from 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business community silica analysts believe that: in the short term, the silica market maintains a stable operation, and the price fluctuation range is limited. (the above prices are provided by major silica manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by business silica analysts. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more details.)

1、 Price trend

According to the business news agency’s block list data, this week’s domestic toluene continued the upward trend of last week. On January 24, the price of toluene was 4150 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (January 24), the price was 4250 yuan / ton, up 2.41% from last week’s 100 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and comment

Within the week, Sinopec’s Toluene price increased by 150-250 yuan / ton. This week, some downstream purchasing, toluene supply is expected to tighten, prices rose. In terms of external market, toluene continued to rise this week. As of January 29, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 553 US dollars / ton, up 5 US dollars / ton or 0.91% compared with January 22. The price of imported toluene from East China was 574.5 US dollars / ton, up 20.5 US dollars / ton or 3.7% compared with January 22.

In terms of crude oil, the news of Iraq’s decision to make compensatory production cuts at the beginning of this week supported the crude oil market, but the epidemic situation was still severe, curbing the demand of the crude oil market. On January 22, Brent fell 0.095 USD / barrel, or 0.17%; WTI fell 0.19 USD / barrel, or 0.36%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rose slightly this week, with domestic goods at 12766.67 yuan / ton, up 1.86% over last week and 9.12% over the same period last year. The East China market is relatively strong, the supplier’s equipment maintenance news is fermenting, the export demand is good, the industry’s offer is high and the market is strong, the downstream is on holiday one after another, the market’s acceptance of high prices is low, the follow-up of buying is weak, and the goods just need to be prepared to enter the market.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week, with an average price of 5200 yuan / ton over the weekend, down 24.64% year on year. The domestic PX operating rate is about 60%. This week, the operation rate of p-xylene plant in Asia dropped to 60%, the supply of PX in Asia decreased, and the external price of PX remained volatile this week. As of the end of the week, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia was US $665-667 / T FOB Korea and US $683-685 / t CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Downstream terminals have been shut down, logistics reduced, toluene market is expected to enter a period of stable price consolidation. Continue to pay attention to the downstream purchasing situation, as well as the impact of crude oil and external market on the price of toluene.

1、 Price data

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the price of petroleum coke products of domestic refineries fell slightly. The average price of Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 1724.00 yuan / ton, while the average price of petroleum coke market at the weekend was 1685.25 yuan / ton, down 2.25%, up 61.97% year on year. On January 29, the petroleum coke commodity index was 131.08, down 3.01 points from yesterday, down 15.75% from 155.59 points (January 25, 2018), the highest point in the cycle, and up 95.96% from 66.89 points, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of local refined petroleum coke was basically stable, and the price of some refineries fluctuated. The price of low sulfur coke kept stable. The price of medium and high sulfur coke was stable in the middle and lower reaches. At the end of the month, the downstream was mainly purchased on demand, and the refinery made profits to ship.

Upstream: U.S. crude oil stocks are declining, the U.S. dollar is weakening, and the global epidemic is still serious. The market is more concerned about the delay of vaccination and new travel restrictions that may depress demand. This week, WTI crude oil prices rose 0.13% and Brent crude oil prices fell 0.56%.

Downstream: affected by the downturn of downstream demand, the carbon market is weak; the price of downstream electrolytic aluminum is weak and volatile; the silicon metal market is stable.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business community, in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the 4th week of 2021 (1.25-1.29), there are 5 kinds of commodities in the energy sector, including 1 kind of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities with an increase are liquefied natural gas (11.38%), coke (3.91%) and liquefied gas (2.06%). There were 9 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products with a decline were steam coal (- 12.77%), dimethyl ether (- 2.30%) and petroleum coke (- 2.25%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.19%.

Business community petroleum coke analysts believe that: at present, terminal demand is temporarily stable, calcined coke shipment is good, and it is expected that petroleum coke will be stable in the short term.

Magnesium market trend

On January 29, 2021, the price of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in domestic main production areas stabilized in cash including tax, with an overall range of 14100-14400 yuan / ton, mainly through actual single negotiation.

The specific price range of each region is as follows:

In fugu area, the ex factory spot exchange including tax is 14100-14400 yuan / ton; in Taiyuan area, the spot exchange is 14300-14400 yuan / ton; in Wenxi area, the spot exchange is 14400-14500 yuan / ton; in Ningxia area, the spot exchange is 14100-14300 yuan / ton.

Magnesium ingot is original magnesium ingot according to national standard (GB / t3499-2011); non pickling, no wooden pallet and non payment acceptance price, mainly based on single negotiation.

According to the data of business news agency, the monthly decline of magnesium ingot in January 2021 was 7.74%, which was mainly reflected in the middle and early ten days, and the magnesium ingot stabilized and slightly recovered in the later period.

It is reported that at present, the mainstream manufacturers mainly sell orders in advance, and most of them are “futures like” products that will be picked up after the year. The delivery date is delayed. On the one hand, the transportation is affected by the approaching Spring Festival; on the other hand, the downstream manufacturers mainly prepare goods in the early stage, and plan to purchase just in time.