Trade name: urea

Latest price (May 31): 2386.67 yuan / ton

On May 31, the ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong increased by 33.34 yuan / ton, or 1.42%, compared with the quotation on May 28. The prices of upstream natural gas and coal have dropped slightly recently, and the cost support has weakened. From the perspective of demand, the agricultural demand of different regions has been followed up; The downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet factories took goods actively, and the new orders of enterprises followed up well. From the supply side: in recent years, some enterprises in Shandong, Xinjiang, Shaanxi and other places have been overhauled, and the supply side has been tightened. At the same time, the enterprise inventory and social inventory have also been maintained at a low position. In terms of Indian bidding: the bidding price of India RCF company announced that the bidding quantity of East Coast is 795000 tons CFR, and the lowest price is 408.88 US dollars / ton CFR. On the whole, the urea cost support this week is general, the downstream demand is better, and the urea supply is tight.

It is expected that the ex factory price of urea in Shandong will rise slightly in the future: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2400 yuan / ton.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market rose sharply in May. By the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 3260 yuan / ton, 9.4% higher than that of 2980 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 39.91% higher than that of the same period last year.

In May, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market rose sharply. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers operated stably. In the near future, the supply of goods on the site was normal. The goods on the site were generally transported. The inventory of manufacturers was not high. The price of upstream raw material liquid ammonia continued to rise, and the price of ammonium nitrate rose sharply. In the near future, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is general, and the downstream is purchased on demand. In the near future, the trend of nitro compound fertilizer in the downstream is stable. There are still many production stops in the domestic downstream civil explosive industry, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start to work normally. Affected by the cost support, the price of ammonium nitrate market rises. Up to now, the negotiation mainstream in Shaanxi is 3100-3300 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2500-2700 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 3900-4100 yuan / ton.

In May, the price trend of domestic concentrated nitric acid declined. By the end of the month, the average price of domestic nitric acid was 2233.33 yuan / ton, down 2.9% from 2300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The price of Xinghua is 2100 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe quoted 2100 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai quoted 2400 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic nitric acid plant has been running stably, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the delivery of goods in the market is general. In April, the price trend of nitric acid market dropped slightly, and the price of raw nitric acid dropped, which has a certain negative impact on the ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate rose.

The price of domestic liquid ammonia in the upstream market rose sharply in May. By the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia was 4103.33 yuan / ton, up 5.48% from 3890 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. According to the monitoring of the business community, the market price has broken through the 4000 mark, reaching a three-year high. The soaring price of liquid ammonia is the result of the dual effects of higher cost and tight supply and demand. On the one hand, after the May Day holiday, with the support of inflation expectations, domestic commodities ushered in a new round of rising cycle, especially the upstream products of liquid ammonia, such as coal and methanol, rose sharply. In addition, the urea market has soared recently, and most of the low-level ammonia enterprises have concentrated on producing urea, which exacerbates the shortage of liquid ammonia. Jiangsu Hengsheng produces all the urea, and it is difficult to ease the shortage of market supply. The sharp rise in the price of upstream liquid ammonia formed a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate rose sharply.

In the near future, the demand of downstream civil explosive industry is general, and the market demand for ammonium nitrate is normal. However, the high price of raw material market has a certain supporting role for the ammonium nitrate Market. The ammonium nitrate analysts of business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate will remain high in the later period.

According to the price monitoring of the business association, the domestic polyester filament market price fell slightly this week, among which the polyester POY rose the most obviously, with a decrease of 1.61% as of May 28 compared with the beginning of the week, followed by the polyester DTY, which fell by 1.03%, and the polyester FDY was flat. Today, polyester filament has started the preferential mode of profit giving and sales promotion, and the mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced the price by 100-300 yuan / ton.

Average price rise and fall of polyester filament market this week, unit: yuan / ton

product 2021-5-24 2021-5-28 Up and down Year on year rise and fall

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) seven thousand five hundred and twenty-seven seven thousand five hundred and twenty-seven 0% 19.04%

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) seven thousand three hundred and eighty seven thousand two hundred and sixty-one – 1.61% 31.21%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elastic) eight thousand eight hundred and thirty-three eight thousand seven hundred and forty-two – 1.03% 20.36%

PTA raw material mainstream suppliers announced maintenance plan in June, the current industry operating rate is stable at around 83%. It is also reported that the main PTA suppliers reduced their supply by 40% – 50% in June, which is good for the market mentality. Due to the reduction of supply by large factories, the market continues to go to the warehouse in the short term, and the spot circulation is still tight. As of May 27, the settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was 66.85 U.S. dollars per barrel, up 0.64 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures market settlement price of the main contract at 69.46 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 0.59 U.S. dollars. As of May 28, the average price of PTA spot market was 4670 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 1.02%.

The comprehensive starting load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the lower reaches is around 73%, which is 4.43% lower than that of last week. Specifically, for example, the weaving start-up rate in Shengze continues to drop to around 70%, and the “two start stop one” continues to be implemented. At present, some local weaving factories maintain order production, but the overall start-up rate is not high, and some weaving factories also produce inventory. At present, the export of foreign trade is not smooth, coupled with the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, leading to the cautious attitude of the factory to receive orders. In Haining area, the warp knitting machine started up stably. Most of the mainstream factories started up more than 90%, and a few of them started up at 40-60%. The main warehouse of the factory is still accumulated, and the local mainstream large factory billet warehouse is around 20-35 days, and the lower is 1-2 weeks. Due to the generally good expectation of the terminal market after June, the factory still maintains a high load start-up under the pressure of accumulated storage.

Business analysts believe that at present, the terminal textile industry has entered the traditional off-season, with orders ending in summer and few new orders in autumn and winter. Some weaving factories have an appropriate amount of production inventory, but the weaving operation rate has not decreased significantly, and small orders are also increasing. The industry expects that autumn and winter orders will be issued after the Dragon Boat Festival. Recently, boosted by the strength of crude oil and the favorable cost side, polyester prices are expected to stabilize in the short term, and may rebound slightly from mid June.

Recently, the market of phosphorus chemical industry rose, and it rose sharply in the situation of the price decline of more than 100 raw materials of “stepping on the brake” of bulk commodities, and reached the highest level in the year. Yellow phosphorus led the rise of phosphorus chemical industry, which was comparable to the price trend in 2019, and led to the fluctuation of related product price index, and the overall trend of phosphorus chemical industry was up.

According to the large data list of business agencies, the phosphorus chemical industry plate has been red all over the country recently. The phosphorus chemical index on May 27 was 1087, up 5 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 45.13 percent from the lowest point of 749 on October 07, 2018（ Note: the cycle refers to December 1, 2011 to present). According to the price monitoring of business agency, there are 3 commodities rising in the list of rise and fall of phosphorus chemical industry price on May 26, 2021, 0 commodities falling, and 2 commodities with rise and fall of 0. The main commodities rising were: yellow phosphorus (4.17%), monoammonium phosphate (1.95%), phosphoric acid (1.17%); The daily average rise and fall was 1.46 per cent.

China is the world’s largest producer of phosphorus chemical products. Phosphorus chemical industry includes phosphate fertilizer industry, yellow phosphorus and phosphating industry, phosphoric acid and phosphate industry, organic phosphating industry, phosphorus containing pesticide and pharmaceutical industry, etc. it is widely used and an important industry in national economy. According to the data above, five commodities in the plate, including yellow phosphorus led the market, up about 48% year-on-year, followed by diammonium phosphate, up more than 40% year-on-year, with different commodity growth, but the overall trend of phosphorous chemical industry is strong. The following is a detailed view:

Good atmosphere of investment and high consolidation operation of domestic phosphorus ore

In late May, the domestic phosphorus ore market continued to maintain high consolidation operation as a whole, the overall market investment atmosphere was good, downstream orders were relatively stable, and the delivery of the industry was normal. The phosphorus ore market in Guizhou Province is in high order and operation. The enterprise start rate is low in Guizhou Province, the inventory of phosphate ore is low, and the spot supply is tight. Most of Guizhou mining enterprises keep high and firm quotation. The market transaction price is generally high. According to the data monitoring of business society, as of May 27, the reference average price of 30% of the mainstream areas of phosphorus ore in China is 510 yuan / ton, compared with the price on May 1, The average price rose 30 yuan / ton, or 6.25%, up 30.21% compared with the same period last year.

The analysts of phosphorus ore of business agency believe that: the overall trading climate of the market is good, the downstream Yellow Phosphorus market is also slightly pushed up, and the upstream and downstream are effectively supported. Therefore, the analysts of the phosphorus ore of business society believe that the domestic phosphorus ore market will continue to be strong in the short term.

Domestic yellow phosphorus market price soared in short supply

In late May, the price of yellow phosphorus rose rapidly. Affected by drought, less water and limited electricity in Yunnan, the power of yellow phosphorus enterprises in some areas was less than 20%! Recently, the power limit has not been relieved, but it is becoming more and more serious. More yellow phosphorus plants are shut down, the shortage of spot goods is aggravating, and some manufacturers have temporarily stopped making external quotations. On the demand side, the downstream glyphosate price continued to rise, which was acceptable to the high price of yellow phosphorus, and played a certain role in boosting the price rise of yellow phosphorus. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 25000 yuan / ton; The main quotation in Sichuan is about 23000-25000 yuan / ton; The main quotation in Guizhou is about 25000 yuan / ton.

Analysts of huangp, a business agency, believe that due to the influence of power limit in Yunnan, manufacturers park more and the spot tension is increasing. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will still be adjusted above the main price in the short term.

Cost supports the high market of phosphoric acid

In May, the phosphoric acid market was relatively stable in the first half of the month, and the next half of the month fluctuated narrowly. Near the end of the month, the phosphoric acid market rose rapidly and rushed to a high level. This month, the increase was mainly caused by the rising price of raw material yellow phosphorus. The price of yellow phosphorus is now high to 25000 yuan / ton, and the supply is short. The phosphoric acid market is supported by cost and the price increases in linkage. The enterprise’s range of increase is about 350-1100 yuan / t, which rapidly rises to high level. Taking Ronghong chemical as an example, the latest price is 6400 yuan / ton, and the price is high, Some enterprises started to decline due to the high price of raw materials and goods, while closing the offer and closing the report, the business was mostly in a wait-and-see form, while the downstream still maintained the purchase demand, and the high price transactions were very few.

Phosphoric acid analysts of business agency believe that the price of raw material yellow phosphorus market has been rising continuously recently, most of which have been closed and closed. The phosphoric acid market has been linked to a high level. It is expected that the price will still rise in the short term, and the change of raw material price should be closely watched.

The market of Monoammonium is warming, and there is no fluctuation of diammonium

The price of monoammonium phosphate rose, and the price rose 3.29% in the month. Domestic demand increased, and orders increased. The commencement rate of ammonium monoammonium enterprises is about 70%, slightly higher than last week. In the process of shutdown and maintenance of some enterprises, the price rose. The price of diammonium phosphate is stable. The domestic market is stable and has no fluctuation for now. Domestic demand is general, and the order quantity is not followed up enough. Some enterprises stop production and maintenance, and the source of goods is tight, mainly export oriented. The start rate of ammonium enterprises was about 55% this Tuesday, and the rate of commencement was low.

Business agency analysts believe that the atmosphere in the market of monoammonium phosphate is warming and demand has been improved. The price of raw materials increased and supply decreased. Domestic market of diammonium phosphate is flat, still export oriented, new single follow-up is insufficient. It is expected that the price of monoammonium phosphate will continue to rise in the short term, and the stable operation of diammonium phosphate will be the main.

Post market forecast

In late May, phosphorus chemical opened up the upward channel, the price went higher, and the overall market was relatively strong. Huangp is in the middle of the industrial chain. Recently, the price has risen, and the industrial chain is linked up and up. Individual products are dragged down by demand, and the price has not changed significantly. At present, the supply of phosphorus chemical industry market is tight, and there is still upward expectation in the short term. However, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, and the industry has a strong wait-and-see mentality. Therefore, the driving force of continuous rise is not strong, and the market may face a callback.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of May 26, the comprehensive price of the PC market was 28466.67 yuan / ton, which was dominated by the weak operation of the PC market in the near future. Compared with the same period last week, the price dropped by 2.06%. At present, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, and the transaction atmosphere is general. In the short term, the PC market is in a narrow range and remains weak.

The PC market is weak, the focus of negotiation is low, the downstream follow-up is slow, and just need to purchase is maintained. The PC market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. In the near future, it is mainly weak and volatile, and it is possible to continue to decline. BPA in the upstream falls sharply, and the PC cost is generally supported.

Bisphenol a commodity index: on May 25, the bisphenol a commodity index was 241.82, down 6.81 points from yesterday, down 14.61% from 283.19 points (2021-04-16), the highest point in the cycle, and up 235.44% from 72.09 points, the lowest point on April 6, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from March 1, 2020 to now).

Business community PC analysts believe that: in the short term, PC weak operation, start low, the rise is not obvious, maintain the early trend（ If you want to get more information about goods and master the price of goods, you can subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community.