According to the price monitoring data of business news agency, as of March 9, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol containing packaging in mainstream areas was around 10733 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price base in early March. Compared with the price after the Spring Festival (reference price 10700 yuan / ton on February 18), the average price increased by 33 yuan / ton, or 0.31%.

March has come to normal, and the market of propanol is stable

In March, the domestic market price of n-propanol was stable as a whole. At present, the normal start-up of n-propanol market and the rise of upstream raw material ethylene market in March provide a certain cost support for n-propanol. However, at present, the trading atmosphere of n-propanol is general and downstream demand is just in demand. Therefore, the market has no upward momentum and basically maintains stable operation. On March 9, Shandong fengcang Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 9700 yuan / ton of n-propanol for delivery (bulk water / Shandong); Ningbo Haorui Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 9800 yuan / ton of n-propanol for delivery (bulk water / domestic); Jinan Mingyu Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 10600 yuan / ton of n-propanol for delivery (barrel / domestic). Dealers all over the world still have reservations about the price. It is difficult to monitor the price, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. There are also differences in each region. The real order negotiation is the main way, and we will wait and see the changes in the price of raw materials and the delivery situation in the future.

Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. (formerly Nanjing Wujiang Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.) has started normal production of n-propanol in Nanjing. At present, it is operating at full load. The n-propanol factory has reported 9600 yuan / ton (loose water). Since March, the transaction of n-propanol market has been flat. Dadu, a manufacturer in Nanjing, has offered stable quotations.

In terms of raw materials, in March, the overall external ethylene market showed an upward trend. As of March 8, the price of ethylene in Asia is 1198-1204 USD / T in Northeast Asia and 1143-1150 USD / T in Southeast Asia. Recently, the price of ethylene in Asia is mainly rising. In the European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted 1231-1242 US dollars / ton, up 3 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe quoted 1206-1217 US dollars / ton, down 1 US dollar / ton. In the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted 1288-1300 US dollars / ton, up 38 US dollars / ton. In the recent US ethylene market, the demand is general.

At present, the supply and demand of the market is relatively stable, and the market adjustment is limited in the short term, with little fluctuation

At present, the operating rate of some manufacturers in Nanjing is normal, the production operation is normal, and the relationship between supply and demand is generally maintained in a relatively balanced state. Individual traders stimulate the market, offer a narrow downward trend, the overall impact is small. Business News Agency propanol data analysts believe that short-term domestic propanol prices maintain a stable operation, little volatility. Later, pay attention to the cost of raw materials and the supply of goods.

1、 Price trend

According to business news agency’s block list data, toluene rose at the beginning of this week and closed down at the end of the week, and its price was higher than that of last week. On February 28, the price of toluene was 5687.5 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (March 7), the price was 5825 yuan / ton, up 137.5 yuan / ton or 2.42% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

After the festival, toluene rose sharply due to the influence of crude oil, but the downstream demand was weak compared with toluene, which restricted the growth of toluene. At the beginning of this week, the bearish crude oil fell back, driving toluene down. In terms of external market, the price of toluene in the external market continued to decline this week. As of March 5, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 735 US dollars / ton, down 42 US dollars / ton or 5.41% compared with February 26, and the price of imported toluene from East China was 760 US dollars / ton, down 40 US dollars / ton or 5% compared with February 26.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil fell first and then rose this week. In the early stage, the market worried that the rapid rise of oil price would lead to the return of more production capacity, and OPEC + might increase production. However, at the OPEC + meeting on the 4th, it was decided to maintain the current scale of production reduction until the end of April, and Saudi Arabia will still reduce production by an additional 1 million barrels per day, boosting crude oil prices. On February 26, Brent rose $3.085/barrel, or 4.68%; WTI rose $4.69/barrel, or 7.66%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rose again this week, with domestic goods at 19250 yuan / ton, up 5.48% from last week and 73.42% from the same period last year. The domestic market is relatively strong, the guidance price of large factories is relatively high, the TDI device of Cangzhou Dahua is out of order, which is good for the market, the supplier has strong support, and the attitude of the industry is bullish. However, the downstream does not have a high acceptance of the high price, and the trading and buying gas are general. It is expected that the market will be relatively strong in the future, so we should pay attention to the factory policy guidance.

In the PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price rose 1000 yuan / ton this week, at 6700 yuan / ton, up 42.55% over the beginning of the year and 8.06% over the same period last year. As of March 5, the closing prices in Asia were US $850-852 / T FOB Korea and US $868-870 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

After the festival, the lower reaches rose weaker than toluene, with strong resistance to high price toluene and weak demand follow-up. In March, domestic toluene refineries entered into centralized maintenance, and it is expected that toluene arriving in Hong Kong will be limited, and toluene supply will be tight. In addition to crude oil, external price support, toluene price is expected to be strong. Continue to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and the impact of crude oil and external market on toluene prices.

Partial region, individual period, partial coal species or supply is tight in 2021

The annual report on the development of coal industry 2020 issued by China coal industry association holds that the quality of coal supply system will steadily improve in 2021, the contract price of coal in the medium and long term will be stable in a reasonable range and the market price will maintain a basic balance trend.

From the perspective of coal demand, 2021 is a year of special importance in the process of modernization construction in China. The central economic working conference emphasized that macro policies should be continuous, stable and sustainable, and that active fiscal policies and sound monetary policies should be implemented to maintain the necessary support for economic recovery; A series of key tasks were deployed at the meeting, which will promote the stable development of China’s macro-economy and drive the continuous growth of coal demand.

Meanwhile, the state strengthens energy conservation and emission reduction, and the air environment governance, and the substitution effect of new energy and renewable energy on coal consumption is further enhanced, which will inhibit the growth of coal consumption. It is expected that the national coal demand will increase slightly in 2021.

From the perspective of coal supply, it is expected that the new high-quality production capacity in the new coal production areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Mongolia will continue to be released in 2021, but at the same time, some southern provinces, such as Hunan, Jiangxi and Chongqing, will further withdraw from the backward coal production capacity. Overall, the national coal production will maintain an increasing trend in 2021, and the increase will further focus on Shanxi, Shaanxi and Mongolia.

From the perspective of coal import, the trend of diversification of China’s coal import market in 2021 is becoming more and more obvious, and the coal import volume will remain basically stable throughout the year.

Based on comprehensive judgment, the quality of the national coal supply system will be steadily improved in 2021, the contract price of coal in the medium and long term will be stable in a reasonable range, and the coal market will maintain a basic balance.

However, due to the constraints of resources and environment and the uncertainty of weather, the situation of partial area, individual period and partial coal species is not excluded.

Coal production increased by about 5% in the 14th five year plan and consumption increased by about 6%

The report predicts that by the end of the 14th five year plan, the domestic coal production will be controlled at 4.1 billion tons and the national coal consumption will be controlled at about 4.2 billion tons. The above target values are about 5% and 6% higher than China’s coal production and consumption in 2020.

By the end of 2020, China has about 4700 coal mines. By the end of the 14th five year plan, this data will be compressed to about 4000, and more than 1000 intelligent coal mines will be built; 65 million tons of Mines (open air) and nearly 1billion tons / year production capacity will be built. Cultivate the world-class coal enterprises with global competitiveness in 3-5 furniture. We will promote the merger and reorganization of enterprises and establish 10 coal enterprises with an annual output of 100 million tons. The mechanization degree of coal mining is more than 90%, and the mechanization degree of driving reaches more than 75%.

During the 13th five year plan, the coal industry exceeded the target of capacity reduction, the report said. By the end of 2020, the country has withdrawn 5500 coal mines in total and has withdrawn from backward production capacity of more than 1billion tons / year, exceeding the target of resolving the excess coal capacity proposed by the State Council.

At the same time, the quality of coal supply system has been significantly improved. China has built 1200 large-scale modern coal mines with an annual output of more than 1.2 million tons, accounting for about 80% of the total output. Among them, 52 coal mines with an annual output of 10 million tons have been built, with a capacity of 820million tons / year. Thus, the coal to capacity has no impact on the new coal mine project.

In the future, the concentration of coal industry will be greatly improved. At present, the output of raw coal of the first 8 large enterprises is 1.855 billion tons, accounting for 47.6% of the total. With the pace of merger and reorganization of coal enterprises accelerating, the proportion will be further increased.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of February 28, the reference ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 15433 yuan / ton, which was up 2167 yuan / ton, or 16.33%, compared with February 1 (reference price was 13266 yuan / ton).

In February, domestic propylene glycol “Rose violently” and rose by more than 16% in the whole month

In late February, after the festival, the market of propylene glycol “rose strongly”. In terms of cost, driven by the rising price of raw material propylene oxide, the support of propylene glycol cost was strengthened, and the price of propylene glycol rose steadily. In terms of demand, domestic demand maintained just purchasing. Affected by foreign public affairs, the export trade of propylene glycol performed well, and the foreign trade demand helped the propylene glycol market to rise broadly On the 24th, the ex factory price of propylene glycol in Shandong Province rose to around 14800-15800 yuan / ton, and the high quoted price rose to 16500 yuan / ton. Then, the propylene glycol market ran steadily to the end of the month. On the 28th, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 15433 yuan / ton, up nearly 2200 yuan / ton, or more than 16% compared with the price at the beginning of the month.

In terms of raw materials, in February, the market of propylene oxide in Shandong Province rose sharply. According to the data of the business club, as of February 28, the average quoted price of propylene oxide enterprises was 18833.337 yuan / ton, up 2033 yuan / ton, or 12.1% compared with February 1 (16800 yuan / ton). At present, the propylene oxide manufacturers are still in a state of no pressure, the price support mentality still exists, most of the factory contracts are steadily promoted, the new order negotiation is higher and the feedback is smooth, the lower polyether level is high, and the wait-and-see mood increases.

The supply of propylene glycol is increasing in succession, and it may fall in the short term

In March, the large propylene glycol plants in Shandong Province resumed operation, the operating rate increased and the supply increased. The demand for propylene glycol raw materials in the domestic downstream unsaturated resin industry was still low, and the high market support mainly came from the export and cost aspects. In terms of cost, at the end of February, the rising trend of propylene oxide raw material slowed down, and the support for propylene glycol did not continue to increase Taking all the above into consideration, propylene glycol will continue to rise in the short term. Under the influence of insufficient power and increased supply, the market may show a clear and steady decline, with a slight negative drop.

After the Lunar New Year of the ox, the price of domestic aggregate MDI market rose sharply. The price rise lasted for more than 10 days. Basically, the quotation only lasted for half a day, and then rose again on the same day. In March, as soon as the guidance prices of Wanhua and kostrong came out, they were lower than the market prices at that time, and the market prices declined. What changes will aggregate MDI market face next?

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the market price of domestic aggregate MDI was 19300 yuan / ton on February 19 after the festival, and 25750 yuan / ton as of March 4, with an increase of 33.52%. The highest price in the cycle was 27750 yuan / ton on February 26, with an amplitude of 43.78%. From March 1 to March 4, the price of domestic aggregate MDI market fell by 4.98%, and traders generally responded that “open a single talk mode, profit margins are basically exhausted, low price goods are sold out, and the price is back on the rising track”. It seems to indicate that a new round of rise is already in the pipeline.

On the upstream side, pure benzene: the pure benzene market is high, and the downstream enterprises in Shandong just need to take the goods, but the overall inventory of Shandong Dilian is low, and the price is relatively strong. Aniline: the aniline Market is stable and small, individual enterprises increase the ex factory price, but I heard that the overhaul time of Shandong’s main enterprises is delayed, and other aniline manufacturers are mainly stable in shipment. It is not difficult to see from the price comparison index chart of business community that the price rise and fall trend of raw material pure benzene and aniline is closely related to the price rise and fall trend of polymerized MDI market. The price of pure benzene is still at a high level, and the market of aniline is on the upward trend. It is expected that the market price of polymerized MDI will still rise slightly in the short term.

In terms of devices, domestic devices: the heavy bus device is scheduled to start maintenance on February 27, with a duration of about one month; the technical transformation of Wanhua Yantai device is successful, with the capacity expanded to 1.1 million tons / year. Foreign devices: the market understands that the first quarter maintenance plan of Huntsman devices in the United States.

In the future, traders are full of confidence, and the low price supply has been exhausted. Business community aggregation MDI analysts expect that the short-term domestic aggregation MDI market may still rise again.