According to the data monitored by the business agency, the quotation of domestic first-class industrial potassium nitrate at the beginning of this week was 4212.50 yuan / ton, and the quotation of domestic first-class industrial potassium nitrate at the end of this week was 4262.50 yuan / ton, up 1.19%. The current price is up 2.10% month on month, and the current price is down 2.29% year on year.

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate market rose, the market supply has been in short supply, mostly concentrated in the hands of large traders, reluctant to sell, the overall supply is still tight, shipping is more difficult, the downstream market on-demand procurement, potassium nitrate market continues to rise, according to business statistics: this week, the domestic potassium nitrate mainstream manufacturers quote 4000-4500 yuan / ton (quotation for reference only), according to the procurement situation of different quotations Different.

Recently, the quotation of potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers is at a high level: on April 2, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is about 2210 yuan / ton, the quotation is temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation. On April 2, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted about 2550 yuan / ton for potassium chloride distribution, which was temporarily stable. The actual transaction price was mainly through negotiation. Recently, the potassium chloride market rose at a high level, and the import potassium price of the port also continued to rise. The cost support was strong, which supported the rise of potassium nitrate Market.

The recent start-up of potash fertilizer plant is not high, and the market price is high and firm. It is expected that the market of potassium nitrate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the main manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of the business society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business community, as of March 31, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 15933.33 yuan / ton, up 7.9% from the beginning of the month, and down 13.09% from the same period last year.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business news agency, as of March 31, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 20433.33 yuan / ton, up 3.37% from the beginning of the month, flat on a month on month basis, and down 10.51% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

R22: the price of refrigerant R22 rose sharply in March, mainly due to the strong rise of cost, which led to the price trend of R22. In March, chloroform rose by more than 1000 yuan, with an overall monthly amplitude of 42.24%, and then fell to a high level, but the support force is still strong. In addition, the demand side is gradually changing from off-season to peak season. The air conditioning market is expected to be better. At the same time, the export side has also improved. The start-up of refrigerant manufacturers is at a high level, and the delivery is under no pressure. Some enterprises receive orders in a limited amount, so the market has a high driving mood. But in the second half of the month, R22 rose too fast, the downstream follow-up was weak, and the acceptance was general, so the market gradually stabilized, digesting the early gains. Near the end of the month, the price of raw materials fell, R22 market was stable and wait-and-see, but some enterprises were stable and declined, and the market was weak. At present, R22 market quotation is mostly around 15500-17000 yuan / ton, Shandong quotation is about 16000-17000 yuan / ton, Zhejiang quotation is about 15500-16000 yuan / ton, Hunan quotation is about 15500-16000 yuan / ton, Shanghai quotation is about 16000 yuan / ton, the prices of all regions are stable as a whole, individual callback.

R134a: refrigerant R134a rose steadily in March. In addition, the market for hydrofluoric acid was still weak, and the demand for hydrofluoric acid was slightly higher than that for general maintenance, so the demand for hydrofluoric acid was not good. Near the end of the month, the market speculation atmosphere is obvious, mainstream manufacturers raise their quotations, dealers follow the quotation, the market goes up again, the market temporarily returns to the seller’s market, waiting for the demand to follow up. At present, R134a market quotation is mostly in the range of 19000-23000 yuan / ton, Shandong quotation is about 20000-21000 yuan / ton, Zhejiang quotation is about 21500-22000 yuan / ton, Hunan quotation is about 21000-21500 yuan / ton, Jiangsu quotation is about 23000 yuan / ton, Shanghai quotation is about 23000 yuan / ton, the price is generally up and the center of gravity is moving up.

In terms of raw materials, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid rose slightly in March. Up to now, the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid in various regions is 10000-11000 yuan / ton. The domestic hydrofluoric acid trading market is mainly stable. Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is slightly tight, and the price trend of the floor is rising slightly. On the whole, the price of raw fluorite did not change much, and the price of downstream refrigerants rose slightly. In addition, due to the recent overhaul of some domestic hydrofluoric acid plants, the spot supply on the site was slightly tight, and the price of sulfuric acid rose sharply. Supported by favorable factors, hydrofluoric acid analysts of business community believed that the market price of hydrofluoric acid might remain high and stable.

Since March, the market of trichloromethane in Shandong Province has gone up and down. The price of trichloromethane at the beginning of the month was 3030 yuan / ton. In the middle of the month, the price rose to 4310 yuan / ton, the highest point of the month. After that, the price dropped to 3750 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The overall amplitude of the month was 42.24%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 23.76% compared with the beginning of the month. At present, the inventory pressure of trichloromethane production enterprises in Shandong is not big, the raw material price rises sharply, and the cost support is strong. Although the demand side falls slightly in the short term, the downstream refrigerants still need to be supported in the later period as the weather gets warmer. It is expected that the price of trichloromethane will rise steadily in April.

3、 Future forecast

According to refrigerant analysts of business news agency, in March, the cost was boosted, the refrigerant market rose, and the prices of various models rose to varying degrees. However, the price of raw materials declined, and R22 showed a steady decline. It is expected that the short-term market is stable and weak, and there is a risk of downward adjustment. Recently, R134a has been in a strong market speculation mood. The manufacturers support the market and the dealers’ prices rise accordingly. In the short term, the rising atmosphere is still there, and it is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term.

In March, the domestic butadiene market fell after a stalemate. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the domestic butadiene market price was 8368 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 7860 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 6.08% and a year-on-year increase of 53.28%.

In February, domestic bulk commodities went through a cycle of sharp rise. With the favorable environment, the international crude oil price continued to rise, saving the butadiene market which started at a low level in January 2021. By March, crude oil and bulk commodities had a poor trend. Although the external quotations of major producers were firm, the market was weak and the market turned down. With the further opening of the supply side, Liaotong chemical and Fushun Petrochemical are exporting. In the last week at the end of the month, the prices of domestic production enterprises have been widely reduced, and the market has rapidly turned into a downward channel.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec East China butadiene supply price has been reduced by 1200 yuan / T month on month, implementing 7300 yuan / T; Yantai Wanhua 50000 T / a butadiene extraction unit is in normal operation, and the source of goods is in normal export, with the price of 7500 yuan / T; Shenhua Ningmei 64000 T / a butadiene unit is in stable operation, and some of the sources are exported, with the price of 1 It is planned that Fushun Petrochemical’s 160000 T / a butadiene unit will be shut down for maintenance in the middle and early April, and some of the inventory will be exported; sipang Petrochemical’s 100000 t / a oxidative dehydrogenation unit will be shut down for maintenance on March 27, and the restart time is expected to be in the middle and early April, so it is recommended to continue to pay attention; Zhenhai Refining and chemical’s 165000 T / a butadiene unit will be shut down for maintenance until the end of May, and the time will be shortened It lasted for about 15 days. Sinopec Wuhan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. added 60000 T / a butadiene extraction unit, which started operation on March 27, and some goods were sold out.

External price: as of March 31, the external price of butadiene in Asia was stable: FOB Korea closed at US $1025-1035 / T; CFR China closed at US $1065-1075 / T. The external price of butadiene in Europe was stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at USD 1045-1055 / T; FD closed at EUR 795-805 / T in northwest Europe.

At present, there is still good profit support in the second half of April for the maintenance of some downstream synthetic rubber plants. In terms of bad news, sufficient supply of goods will still affect the domestic butadiene market in a short time. Business community butadiene analysts expect short-term domestic butadiene market consolidation.

Zinc price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, zinc price fluctuated and adjusted in March, and zinc market rose in struggle. As of March 31, the average price of zinc was 21766.67 yuan / ton, up 0.74% from 21606.67 yuan / ton on March 1.

China Purchasing Managers Index for March

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ index (PMI) was 51.9% in March, 1.3 percentage points higher than that of last month, and the manufacturing industry recovered. Both sides of supply and demand picked up at the same time, imports and exports returned to the boom range, and the macro economy was good. The demand of zinc market is sufficient, and the market of zinc market is generally good.

Social inventory of zinc ingots

According to the statistical data in the table, the social inventory of zinc city is high and stable, and the supply of zinc city is sufficient. In March, the inventory of zinc city declined slightly, the de inventory of zinc City intensified, and the rising power of zinc city in the future is greater.

Zinc processing fee

Due to the shortage of mine supply, the processing fee paid by the miner to the smelter for refining zinc decreased from $300 / t a year ago to $200 / T in 2021. China’s domestic zinc concentrate processing fee fell to 3600-4200 yuan / ton in March, the lowest level since September 2018, far lower than 6500 yuan / ton in early 2020. Lower processing fee may force zinc smelters to cut production. The output of zinc smelters decreased, the supply of zinc market decreased, and the market of zinc market rose.

Analysis summary and Prospect

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at business news agency, said: compared with the rapid recovery of the domestic economy, the recovery of the EU economy was hindered by the epidemic, the global nonferrous plate was under pressure, and the domestic zinc market was weaker. However, the overall recovery of domestic economy is relatively fast, the decline of zinc market inventory is good for the zinc market, and the decline of zinc concentrate processing fee has also hit the enthusiasm of zinc smelting enterprises. The future output of zinc market is likely to decline. The supply of zinc market is generally sufficient, but the supply and demand are generally tight. Zinc market up support still exists. Zinc price is expected to rise slightly in the future, zinc market is cautiously optimistic.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average market price at the beginning of the week was 1535 yuan / ton, and that at the end of the week was 1518.33 yuan / ton, down 1.09% and up 4.35% compared with the same period last year. This week coking coal prices weak market operation.

On March 29, the coking coal commodity index was 112.05, which was the same as yesterday. Compared with the highest point 121.53 in the cycle (March 12, 2019), it decreased by 7.80%, and increased by 149.50% compared with the lowest point 44.91 on January 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to from September 1, 2012 to now)

According to the business community, as for the supply side, with the tightening of environmental protection inspection and the safety inspection of coal mines in the producing areas, the supply of coking coal is shrinking.

Demand: affected by the slowdown of coke demand caused by downstream blast furnace maintenance, coke shipment is relatively general. The environmental protection policy of limiting production by 30% – 50% has been strictly implemented in Tangshan steel works. The stock in the yard is at a medium to high level. At present, the stock is mainly digested and the purchasing enthusiasm is low. Steel mills still have the intention to lower the price, and coking enterprises have a weak mentality. At present, the market is still in the situation of oversupply, and it is difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that the coke market will still be weak.

According to the coking coal analysts of business society, with the tightening of environmental protection inspection and the safety inspection of coal mines in production areas, the supply of coking coal is in a state of shrinking. The price of coke in the lower reaches is weak, and some steel mills in Hebei have started the eighth round of increase and decrease, with a total decrease of 800 yuan / ton, which shows that they are not enthusiastic about purchasing coking coal. However, with the decline of coke enterprise’s inventory in the later period, the supply side of coking coal is tight. It is estimated that there is not much room for coking coal to go down in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.