1、 Price trend

According to the data of the block list of business associations, toluene fluctuated in a narrow range this week, and the price was weak to maintain stability. On April 4, the price of toluene was 5461 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (April 11), the price was 5452 yuan / ton, down 9 yuan / ton or 0.16% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, Sinopec’s Toluene price adjustment range is – 100 / 0 (yuan / ton). Toluene stocks at ports in East China fell this week. At present, the downstream demand is stable. The trend of toluene mainly follows the fluctuation of crude oil. Crude oil continues to fluctuate, and the guidance is weak. Toluene lacks clear upward momentum and runs weakly and stably in the week. In terms of external market, as of April 9, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was US $680 / T, up US $2 / T or 0.29% from April 2, and the price of imported toluene from East China was US $703 / T, flat from April 2.

Crude oil, this week’s crude oil long short game, price shocks. Good news: US commercial crude oil inventory fell, China and US economic data were strong; bad news: OPEC + decided to gradually increase crude oil production, and the epidemic situation in Europe and other places was severe. On April 1, Brent rose 0.08 USD / barrel, or 0.13%; WTI fell 2.13 USD / barrel, or 3.46%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China continued to decline this week, with domestic goods at 16250 yuan / ton, down 2.9% from last week and up 68.62% from the same period last year. The domestic market has been reorganized and operated, the factory’s supply is tight, the downstream inquiry is increasing, the terminal’s overall willingness to receive goods is weak, and the demand for goods is mainly rigid.

In the PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week was stable compared with last week, with the price at 6400 yuan / ton, up 48.84% year on year. The operation of domestic p-xylene units is stable as a whole, Sinopec and private enterprises are in normal operation, the on-site operation rate is more than 90%, the on-site supply is normal, and the goods are in good condition. As of April 9, closing prices in Asia were 786-788 USD / T FOB Korea and 804-806 USD / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

In April, some refineries entered the spring inspection, the market supply of unit maintenance decreased, and the industry expected the toluene supply to be tight in April. However, the follow-up of downstream demand is still weak, and the wait-and-see sentiment of cargo holders is strong. It is expected that toluene will still follow the fluctuation of crude oil in the short term. Focus on the impact of crude oil and gasoline blending price trend, toluene unit spring maintenance dynamic, toluene late arrival and downstream demand change on toluene price.

Market analysis: after the Qingming Festival, the spot price of cotton rose slightly, with an increase of about 100 yuan / ton. On the 9th, the price index of domestic cotton 3128 was 15369 yuan / ton. In the early period of delivery, 26S cotton yarn was slightly better than 32S cotton yarn. In recent days, yarn prices stabilized after some transactions, mainly loose. Cotton yarn early callback basically in place, for downstream weaving, fabrics, clothing and other links to make a part of the profit space. Affected by the rebound of overseas epidemic situation and the decline of cotton price, the international cotton yarn market began to weaken, and the price of imported yarn continued to decline. On April 9, the main cotton yarn 2109 contract price of zhengshangsuo rose 1.06% yesterday, with the opening price of 22165 yuan / ton and the settlement price of 22255 yuan / ton.

Downstream market: downstream domestic yarn, grey cloth inventory low increased slightly. In the first and middle of April, the willingness of textile mills to replenish stock began to pick up, and the enterprises were still cautious in receiving orders, and the replenishment was mainly based on rigid demand. Autumn and winter orders in April have been issued, although it is still mainly exploratory delivery, the price is also lower, but for yarn and fabric enterprises, it is still good news. According to the prosperity monitoring results of the circulation branch of China Textile Federation, from February to March 2021, the prosperity index of the managers of the national textile and garment professional market was 53.12, up 4.03 percentage points from 49.09 in January, and from various indicators, the prosperity index rose significantly compared with January, indicating that the downstream market as a whole maintained a healthy operation.

Future forecast: after the fermentation of market worries caused by Xinjiang cotton, the futures prices of cotton and cotton yarn rebounded, but the trading of cotton yarn market did not show obvious signs of improvement. At present, the atmosphere of cotton yarn market is light, the prices of chemical fiber yarn and cotton yarn have declined, the overall purchasing demand of textile industry is at a low level, the cotton yarn market is mainly wait-and-see, and the order situation is still concerned in the later stage. It is estimated that the future market is still low It will remain low.

1、 Acrylic acid price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of acrylic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

In April, the acrylic acid market went down. According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of April 8, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 9900 yuan / ton, down 4.19% compared with the previous trading day, down 5.11% compared with the price at the beginning of the month, and down 16.57% compared with the price on March 8.

Recently, the acrylic acid market has been in a weak position, some enterprises have lowered their quotations, the downstream follow-up is insufficient, and the lower rigid demand is the main reason, so the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is weak.

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the recent acrylic acid prices of some enterprises (for reference only, the actual transaction prices of different brands, different specifications and products are mainly negotiated)

Upstream propylene, as of April 7, Shandong propylene market prices rose slightly. According to the price chart of the business association, the price of propylene decreased sharply in the second half of March and rose at the end of the month. At the beginning of April, the market price rose slowly, with an average daily increase of about 50 yuan / ton. On the 6th, most of the propylene prices remained stable, but some of them showed a trend of make-up. Today, the price rose again by 50 yuan / ton. Now, the market transaction is between 8150 and 8400 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 8150 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Acrylic acid analysts of business news agency believe that the recent price rise of raw material propylene has slightly enhanced the cost support, but the downstream just need to follow up is insufficient, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that in the short term, the acrylic acid market may be dominated by weak points, and more attention should be paid to market information guidance.

Trade name: styrene butadiene rubber 1502

Latest price (April 7): 14450 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business news agency, the domestic price of styrene butadiene rubber was 14450 yuan / ton on the 7th, down 0.12% compared with the previous day. Recently, the price of styrene has gone up, the price of butadiene has gone down, the cost side is long and short, and the enthusiasm of downstream goods preparation has decreased, so the upstream and downstream of styrene butadiene rubber are slightly deadlocked. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of April 7, the ex factory price of 1502 butylbenzene of PetroChina Northeast sales company was 14500 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: at present, the upstream and downstream of styrene butadiene rubber are mainly deadlocked; however, if some enterprises start to repair styrene butadiene units in the later stage, the supply side will be tight, which will push up the price of styrene butadiene rubber.

1、 Nitric acid market price trend chart

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of concentrated nitric acid in China was 2233 yuan / ton on April 6, and 2050 yuan / ton before the Qingming Festival, up 8.94%.

2、 Market analysis

On April 6, Anhui Jinhe quoted 2200-2300 yuan / ton, an increase of 350-400 yuan / ton compared with last time; Anhui Aodeli quoted 2350 yuan / ton, an increase of 470 yuan / ton compared with last time; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2200 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, 960 yuan / ton of dilute nitric acid, an increase of 200 yuan / ton compared with last time Shaanxi Xinghua Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2150 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, an increase of 250 yuan / ton. Nitric acid market is in short supply, the market is good, the manufacturers have no inventory pressure, and the raw material liquid ammonia rises to boost the price of most manufacturers.

The market of upstream liquid ammonia rose sharply in March. According to the monitoring of the business association, the monthly increase of liquid ammonia was 17.16%. By the end of the month, the mainstream price of aniline in Shandong was 3700-3850 yuan / ton; the average price of aniline in the downstream market was 12300 yuan / ton from April 1 to April 6, and the average price was 13066 yuan / ton on April 1, down 5.87%.

3、 Future forecast

Nitric acid market is better, nitric acid analysts of business association predict that nitric acid price will continue to rise.