Trend of magnesium (6.28-7.2, the same below)

At the beginning of last week, due to the decrease of market demand, the price fell back. In the middle and later period of this week, the market stabilized at 19000 yuan / ton of spot exchange including tax, a year-on-year decrease of 1.72%. As of July 2, the specific price ranges of each region are as follows:

In fugu area, the ex factory cash including tax is 19000-19100 yuan / ton; In Ningxia, 19000-19100 yuan / ton of ex factory cash including tax; In Taiyuan, the ex factory cash including tax is 19100-19200 yuan / ton; In Wenxi area, the ex factory cash including tax is 19200-19300 yuan / ton.

Market analysis of last week

Cost side: last week, magnesium price was affected by policy control, and the cost gap decreased. Last week, coke increased by 0.75%, and last week, it decreased by 2.02% year on year. However, the price of ferrosilicon and coke at the cost side is still at a high level, and the cost pressure supports the magnesium plant’s strong willingness to stabilize the price.

Demand side: at present, it is still in the off-season of the industry. This week, the quotation has declined, and the market transaction situation has gradually improved. However, generally speaking, most of the people waiting and waiting in the market are still in the majority, and the actual order recovery is limited.

Supply side: at present, some magnesium plants are in the summer maintenance period, and the inventory of large plants is low, but it is still difficult to change the overall situation of oversupply.

Future forecast

In the short term, the magnesium market will remain at the current level, and the price will not change greatly. At the same time, considering the support from the cost side, it is unlikely that the magnesium price will fall sharply, and the magnesium price may continue the weak and stable consolidation operation of the current price.

Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market rebounded slightly in June. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was 11970 yuan / ton at the beginning of June and 12330 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall increase of 3.01% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month. In June, the ex factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber dropped first and then rose. As of June 30, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of Sinopec North China sales company was stable. Qilu cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber reported 12100 yuan / ton, and North China warehouse raised the price; Yanshan Shunding quoted 12020 yuan / ton, and Huabei warehouse raised the price.

In June, the domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber industry started down slightly. According to the business news agency, Yangzi’s 100000 t / a Shunding plant continued to shut down in June; The Shunding units with a total capacity of 200000 tons / year, such as Lande, Wanda and ChuanHua, were shut down for maintenance in the first and middle of June respectively, and the two units returned to normal at the end of the month; Maoming 100000 t / a shundingzhuang was put into operation in mid June; Shunding units in Daqing, Qilu and Dushanzi were in normal operation.

enterprise Plant capacity Commencement at the end of June

Yantai Haopu 60000 tons / year normal operation

Shandong Wanda 50000 tons / year parking

Qi xiangtengda 50000 tons / year normal operation

Qilu Petrochemical 70000 tons / year normal operation

Sichuan Petrochemical 150000 tons / year normal operation

Maoming Petrochemical 100000 tons / year restart

yanshan petrochemical 150000 tons / year normal operation

Yangzi Petrochemical 100000 / year parking

Huayu rubber 80000 tons / year parking

Taixiang Yubu 72000 / year normal operation

Dushanzi Petrochemical 30000 / year normal operation

Lande, Xinjiang 50000 / year normal operation

Daqing Petrochemical 160000 / year normal operation

Liaoning Shengyou 30000 / year parking

Jinzhou Petrochemical 30000 / year normal operation

Shandong Huamao 100000 / year restart

Zhejiang ChuanHua 100000 / year normal operation

The price of natural rubber is at a low level, which forms a certain pressure on cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber from the perspective of substitutability.

In June, the price of butadiene rose sharply, and the cost side was strongly supported. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of butadiene was 7458 yuan / ton at the beginning of June and 8852 yuan / ton at the end of June, with an overall increase of 18.68%.

Future forecast: business community analysts believe that, on the one hand, the price of raw materials rose sharply, forming a positive support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber; On the other hand, the low price of natural rubber and the slight decline of downstream construction have a negative impact on cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range.

This week (6.28-7.2) the domestic price of ethyl acetate fell. After the first two weeks of June, the price of ethyl acetate rose and hovered at a high level in the second half of the month, it is now in a downward trend. According to the monitoring of business news agency, this week’s rise and fall rate was 0.27%, and the prices of some domestic manufacturers were lower. At present, the prices are in the range of 9200-9500 yuan / ton.

First of all, in terms of the upstream acetic acid market, the price of acetic acid fell sharply this week. According to the monitoring of the business agency, since late June, the price of acetic acid has been falling continuously. Since June 20, the cumulative decline has been 9.08%, and this week’s decline has also exceeded 5%. On the one hand, in the early stage, high market prices gradually accumulated resistance psychology, superimposed with high social inventory, traders competing to reduce prices and ship goods, superimposed with export obstacles and other factors, resulting in the market price falling again and again.

In addition, from the perspective of ethyl acetate supply, part of the maintenance units have resumed operation in the early stage. At present, the supply of goods in the market is relatively sufficient, and the manufacturers are under great pressure to maintain the price, and there are gradually downward adjustments. In addition, the recent transport constraints, poor shipping and other factors, the new single trading low hover.

From the perspective of ethyl acetate demand side, the terminal demand entered the traditional off-season, and the market demand continued to be weak. After a previous round of price increase, the current price is still relatively high. The lower reaches are rational and somewhat resistant to the high price of ethyl acetate, and the trading volume is affected to some extent, making the market more vulnerable.

In the future, ethyl acetate analysts from business clubs believe that with the continuous decline of acetic acid price, the cost pressure of ethyl acetate has been greatly alleviated, but the supply and demand side is still loose, and the demand is mainly insufficient. It is expected that in the later stage, both in terms of cost and supply and demand side, ethyl acetate will have downward pressure.

DOP price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, in June, DOP prices first rose and then fell, DOP prices fluctuated and adjusted, so the DOP market was difficult to stabilize. As of June 30, DOP price was 13066.67 yuan / ton, up 4.64% from 12487.50 yuan / ton of DOP price on June 1, the beginning of June.

Analysis of the price trend of raw materials

From the trend chart of isooctanol price, in June, the price of isooctanol rose first and then fell, and the price of isooctanol rebounded and adjusted. The price of isooctanol rose 9.1% in June, the cost of DOP rose in June, and the power of DOP price rise increased, and the pressure of decline was weakened.

From the trend chart of phthalic anhydride price, it can be seen that in June, the price of phthalic anhydride first fell and then rose, while in June, the price of phthalic anhydride fell slightly, down 1.3%. The increasing downward pressure of DOP rising power still exists.

PVC market stop falling

According to the monitoring data of business society, the PVC market market fell first and then rose in June, and the price of PVC hit the bottom in June. During July 1, the construction and transportation were limited, the downstream customers increased their stock, the PVC price rebounded, the demand for DOP was general, the support for the rise of DOP was insufficient, and the pressure of the drop of DOP remained in the future.

Import and export data

In May 2021, DOP export volume was 3762.86 tons, up 172% year on year, and the accumulated export volume was 17321.49 tons, and the cumulative export volume increased by 193% year on year. In May 2021, DOP import volume was 1581 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 25%, and the cumulative import volume was 7962.98 tons, with the cumulative import volume increasing by 48% year-on-year. The export volume of DOP increased, the import volume decreased, and the demand for DOP increased.

Market overview and future market expectation

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst with DOP data from business agency, said that the DOP price in June followed the change due to the fluctuation of raw material prices, and the DOP market in June was difficult to stabilize. With the DOP entering the off-season in the later market, the number of DOP imports remains low, while the increase of export volume stimulates the demand of DOP to rise. With the coming of off-season, the export stimulus is weakened, and the support for the rise of the latter market is insufficient. In the aspect of commencement, in June, DOP manufacturers still maintained low load level, but in June, the theoretical profit of DOP recovered, the start-up of enterprises recovered slowly, and the output of DOP increased slightly. Generally speaking, under the support of the cost of DOP in the short term, there is still some pressure on the rise of DOP, and it is expected that the short-term fluctuation of DOP will rise slightly; In the long run, demand for DOP has declined, supply increases, and the pressure of DOP decline increases, and the driving force of rise is weakened. It is expected that the long-term market of DOP will fall and price fluctuation will fall.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the price trend of cryolite market in June was stable, moderate and downward. The average price at the end of the month was 6350.00 yuan / ton, down 1.17% from the beginning of the month and up 12.06% from last year.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the market of cryolite in Henan Province was stable as a whole. The price of cryolite in the month was basically maintained at about 6425 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, individual enterprises adjusted the price, and the price trend of cryolite decreased. The main reason for the decrease was that the enterprises’ trading was general, and the quotation was reduced according to their own shipping. In terms of devices, in June, the devices of domestic cryolite enterprises operated normally and smoothly, with low production capacity of manufacturers, tight inventory and tight raw materials. Due to stable demand, they mostly shipped according to single order, talked about it in a single way, and the quotation of enterprises remained stable, so there was no possibility of short-term price rise. By the 30th, the ex factory price of cryolite in Henan was 6000-6800 yuan / ton; The ex factory quotation in Shandong is 6000-6500 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is flexible, mainly through negotiation.

On the upstream side, the domestic fluorite market remained stable, with the average price of fluorite at the end of the month at 2627.78 yuan / ton, up 0.42% from the beginning of the month. On the other hand, the price of raw fluorite ore is on the high side, the flotation plant is not willing to ship at a low price, the downstream delivery situation is general, the demand for fluorite is not improved, and the market situation in the later stage is waiting to be sorted out. The downstream aluminum industry was in a volatile market in June. At present, the aluminum social inventory is low, and the aluminum consumption end is acceptable. The market game has formed a volatile market in the future.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the supply of cryolite in the market is fair, with small order procurement on demand, stable downstream demand, firm quotations from manufacturers, stable market mentality and wait-and-see. It is expected that the cryolite market will be stable in the future.