This week, the domestic adipic acid market is mainly stable. After the correction of adipic acid Market in the first ten days, it is mainly stable at present. This week, the price of adipic acid was basically the same as last week, most dealers quoted at a reasonable level, not much higher than last week, and some of them sold at a profit. This week, the adipic acid plant maintained a normal operating rate of about 80-90%, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers increased slightly compared with that at the beginning of this month. In the short term, it is still in the process of destocking, the downstream demand is general, and the dealers’ delivery is generally lower than the level in early April.

Cost side: the price of pure benzene went up this week, and the increase was relatively strong. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of pure benzene increased by 7.6% this week, but the boosting effect on downstream adipic acid is weakened. As the profits of adipic acid manufacturers are still in a reasonable range, the factors influencing the price of adipic acid are more focused on downstream demand, but the weak demand leads to the weak rise and fall of adipic acid.

Demand side: from the perspective of downstream PA66 of adipic acid, according to the monitoring of business society, the market of PA66 continued to decline in April, with a monthly decline of 4.08% as of the 23rd. The weak downstream demand has obvious impact on adipic acid.

In terms of local markets:

The market of adipic acid in East China is stable, and there is generally room for profit. The on-the-spot inquiries are normal, and the high price transactions are mostly on the lookout. At present, there are not many high price goods in the market, the manufacturers have general inventory pressure, and the shipment is normal. Some dealers are reluctant to sell. Today’s market mainstream prices are: Shandong source 10800-11000 yuan / ton acceptance price, Jiangsu source 11000-11200 yuan / ton acceptance price.

At present, adipic acid in South China is mainly stabilized, and most dealers make offers to make profits. Manufacturers are under general inventory pressure and gradually transfer to dealers’ inventory. Today’s market mainstream prices are: 11000-11200 yuan / ton acceptance price of Shandong source, 11200-11400 yuan / ton acceptance price of Jiangsu source, and rigid demand purchase is the main downstream.

In the future, the market supply pressure of adipic acid may rise in the later stage, mainly due to the increase of shipping pressure of enterprises, the slowdown of downstream procurement, and the high price may lead to the accumulation of storage. It is expected that adipic acid will continue to maintain a low market, and the upward momentum is relatively weak.

According to the price monitoring data of business club, as of April 22, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol including packaging in mainstream regions was around 9333 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on April 16. Compared with that at the beginning of the month (the average price of n-propanol on April 1 was 11133 yuan / ton), the average price decreased by 1800 yuan / ton, or 16.17%.

In the first ten days of April, the domestic n-propanol market maintained a stable operation. The trading atmosphere on the floor was cold, the downstream demand was indifferent, and the new orders were generally closed. In the middle of April, the n-propanol industry was under heavy pressure for many days, and the inventory accumulated, and the industry was in a low state of mind. On the 12th, the offer prices of n-propanol factories in Shandong and Jiangsu dropped significantly, and on the 16th, the prices of n-propanol factories in Shandong and Jiangsu dropped significantly, The ex factory price of n-propanol bulk water in Shandong Province has dropped to 8300-8800 yuan / ton, and the low-end price is 8100 yuan / ton, which is about 1500 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of this month; The factory price of n-propanol bulk water in Jiangsu Province is 8500-9000 yuan / ton, which is 1000 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of this month.

Demand boost is not obvious, propyl alcohol fell to maintain weak stable operation

Then this week, the domestic n-propanol market stopped falling and stabilized, maintaining a weak stable finishing operation. At present, the price of domestic n-propanol has basically reached the bottom, and it is unlikely that the market will go down sharply again. This week, some n-propanol manufacturers adjust their prices in a timely range according to their own inventory and downstream inquiry conditions, Individual traders have a small range of fluctuations in the price of n-propanol, and the adjustment has little impact on the overall market trend. The overall market of n-propanol has remained relatively weak and stable this week, and the lower reaches need to purchase more, so the response to low prices is still not very high.

In terms of raw materials, the overall external market of ethylene is on the rise recently. As of the 21st, the European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quotation 1346-1357 U.S. dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe quotation 1238-1247 U.S. dollars / ton; In the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted us $1112-1124 per ton, down by US $182 per ton. Recently, the US ethylene market fell, with poor demand; In the Asian ethylene market, the recent Asian ethylene price is mainly stable, with CFR Northeast Asia offering us $1102-1110 / T and CFR Southeast Asia offering us $1047-1055 / T. On the whole, the external market of ethylene has been trading well in the near future, and the market is rising.

The price is basically at the bottom of the valley, the short-term adjustment of n-propanol is limited, and it will continue to be weak and stable

At present, the n-propanol market as a whole is weak and stable after the decline, but the overall turnover of the market is still normal. Although the inventory of the factory has decreased, the operators are still lack of confidence. The operating rate of the downstream factories of the terminal is low, and the sales resistance of the secondary traders is not reduced. At present, the price of n-propanol has basically reached the bottom, and there is little possibility of sinking again, The boost in demand is difficult to support the sharp rebound of n-propanol market. Therefore, the analysts of n-propanol business association believe that the market of n-propanol will maintain stable operation in the short term.

Spot price: according to the price monitoring of business society, the quotation of domestic staple fiber on April 21 was 6993 yuan, down 0.36% from last week.

Futures market: on April 21, the futures price of the pf2107 contract closed at 6992, down 3.40% from the previous trading day, with a settlement price of 7028 yuan; the trading volume was 238205; the position was 93093, with a basis of 1. Domestic polyester industry chain futures closed down today, with glycol down 2.75% and PTA down 1.39%.

Analysis: international oil prices fell, polyester chain PTA, staple fiber rebounded slightly last week, ethylene glycol fell. PTA rebounded last week, this week a small callback. Ethylene glycol fell this week after a brief stabilization last week. After the price of staple fiber fell sharply in March, downstream mills and trade middlemen actively filled their positions at a low level. Coupled with the sharp rise of crude oil in early April, staple fiber rebounded slightly in early April. However, there is still no obvious improvement in downstream orders, with strong wait-and-see sentiment and weak buying. Today, the price of staple fiber is weak and fluctuated.

Forecast: in the future, the international oil price will be adjusted, the downstream demand will be insufficient, and the short-term accumulation pressure of polyester staple fiber will still be in, or will still be weak and volatile. However, in the medium term, downstream orders are expected to pick up. After the inventory is slowly consumed, the kinetic energy of polyester staple fiber decline will weaken, and there may be a possibility of stabilizing and rebounding under the condition of stable crude oil.

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide

(Figure: p-value curve of propylene oxide product)

2、 Market analysis

In the near future, the market of propylene oxide is stable. According to the data of business news agency’s block list, as of April 20, the average quotation price of propylene oxide enterprises was 18233.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of last Tuesday (April 13), with a decrease of 0.36% compared with April 1 and 9.29% compared with March 20.

Recently, the price of propylene oxide Market is stable. At present, most of the market contracts are stable, the spot follow-up is acceptable, and the market game is sorted out. There is a strong wait-and-see mood. At present, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 17900-18000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in East China is around 18100-18300 yuan / ton,

Upstream propylene, April 19, Shandong propylene market prices to maintain a small rise. According to the price chart of the business association, the price of propylene decreased sharply in the second half of March and rose at the end of the month. At the beginning of April, the market price rose slowly, with an average daily increase of about 50 yuan / ton. From the 6th, the price rose steadily. From the 16th, the price rose steadily at the rate of 50 yuan / ton again. Now, the market transaction is between 8450 yuan / ton and 8550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 8450 yuan / ton. U.S. propylene on April 1, down on the domestic market may have a certain impact. Propylene prices in Asia have risen slightly recently, which has little impact on the propylene market. Propylene market is now no pressure inventory, part of the device is still in repair. The supply of goods in Shandong is a little tight.

The downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of the business community, as of April 19, the reference factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 18000 yuan / ton, compared with April 6 (reference price was 15400 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 2600 yuan / ton, or 16.88%. Compared with April 1 (reference price 15900 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 2100 yuan / ton, or 13.21%; for downstream soft foam polyether, Shandong soft foam polyether market was weak on April 19, and the downstream small orders just needed to purchase, so the transaction was relatively cold. On April 19, the mainstream quotation of common soft foam polyether market in Shandong was around 17600-18000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Business community propylene oxide analysts believe that the current raw material propylene is relatively strong, and the cost side has some support. The spot market just needs to follow up, and there is a strong wait-and-see mood. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may be in a stalemate, and the specific trend still needs to pay attention to the market interest guidance.

1、 Trend analysis

According to nickel price monitoring of business society, spot nickel on the 19th was 121850 yuan / ton, down 1.75% compared with last Friday, down 4.9% compared with the beginning of the year, up 24.17% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

The main reason for the weak decline of nickel price is that the president of the Philippines has cancelled the nine-year ban on new mineral agreements since 2012 in order to increase its government revenue. At present, the supply of nickel mines in the Philippines is tight and the miners are profitable, which may stimulate the supply of new mines in the Philippines. In addition, after the end of the rainy season in the Philippines, supply is expected to increase, putting pressure on nickel prices. The downstream stainless steel price also slightly callback, but the stainless steel production profit turns negative, the space below the stainless steel price is limited.

Future forecast: in the near future, the macro positive factors still exist, and there are some adverse factors in the industry, but nickel and stainless steel have some support below, so it is not appropriate to be too pessimistic in the future. Nickel is expected to be weak in the future.