According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable this week. By the end of the week, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate was 2880 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 2880 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 23.61%. On May 14, the commodity index of ammonium nitrate was 151.58, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 4.32% compared with 158.42 (2021-04-08), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 95.92% compared with 77.37, the lowest point on October 31, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from February 1, 2013 to now).

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market maintained a high level. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started their plants normally, and the supply of ammonium nitrate in the yard was normal. Some manufacturers reported that the delivery situation was general, and the price trend of manufacturers maintained a high level. Recently, the supply of goods in the yard was tight, and the transportation was normal, so the market price of ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream is purchased on demand. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start work normally, and the price trend of some manufacturers is temporarily stable. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation in Shaanxi is 2600-2700 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 2200-2300 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei is 3000-3300 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic price of concentrated nitric acid was temporarily stable, with the weekend price of 2266.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 2266.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu chemical quoted 2200 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe quoted 2200 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai quoted 2400 yuan / ton. Shaanxi Xinghua quoted 2150 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic overhaul units have been running normally, the market supply of concentrated nitric acid is normal, the goods on site are in general, the price trend of nitric acid on site remains stable, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia dropped slightly this week, with the weekend price of 3830 yuan / ton, down 0.69% from 3856.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The start-up of liquid ammonia plant in the yard was normal, the spot supply in the yard was normal, and the price trend of liquid ammonia Market declined slightly. In terms of fundamentals, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province was lower. Due to the rising inventory pressure, the operating rate of manufacturers remained at a reasonable level, and there was a certain price difference with other regions in China, the price of liquid ammonia fell slightly. The ammonia quantity in Shandong Province is basically in the balance of supply and demand, which still has some support for the price. In the downstream, the agricultural fertilizer consumption has increased, the downstream demand is general, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

In the near future, the demand of downstream civil explosive industry is normal, and the production and marketing of nitro compound fertilizer is normal, so the price trend of raw material market has a small decline. However, the spot supply of ammonium nitrate in the market is general, and the lower cost has a certain negative impact. The ammonium nitrate analysts of business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may decline slightly in the later period.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of DOP after the festival fluctuated and rose sharply, and then stabilized and fell back. As of May 14, DOP price was 13725.00 yuan / ton, up 10.02% from 12475.00 yuan / ton of DOP price on May 1, the beginning of the month. In May, the plasticizer market rose sharply, raw material prices fell after a big rise, and the plasticizer market surged and stabilized.

Raw material cost rises and falls back

From the trend chart of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride prices, the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride will fall after saving significantly, the cost of DOP raw materials will stabilize after rising, and the downward pressure of DOP will increase and the driving force will weaken.

Market overview and future market expectation

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst with DOP data from business agency, believes that the cost of DOP raw materials has risen significantly after the festival, which stimulated the sharp rise of DOP prices, stabilized the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride 10 days later, the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride fell on 14 days, the cost of raw materials decreased, and DOP kept up sluggish. Generally speaking, the rise of the DOP market in the future market is weak, and the price of the later market is expected to be weak temporarily stable.

On May 13, the methanol futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange finished high and closed at 2755 yuan / ton, up 139 yuan / ton from the previous trading day, with the futures up 5.31%. The spot market of methanol is also rising. The main production areas in Northwest China drive the spot price of methanol in other regions to continue to rise. The supply and demand of raw coal is tight, which promotes the cost of coal to methanol. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of May 13, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong was 2680 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 13.80% and a year-on-year increase of 54.91%.

At present, the main methanol production enterprises and port inventory is low, traders are in pursuit of rising sentiment, and downstream receiving is cautious. Methanol downstream products are reflected in the rise and fall: formaldehyde, dimethyl ether market rise, acetic acid, MTBE market weak shocks. In the short term, the rising trend of futures and low inventory will continue to dominate the methanol market.

Summary of methanol market prices by Region as of May 13

Region, price

Qinghai Area 2200-2280 yuan / ton factory cash

Shanxi area 2660-2685 yuan / ton factory cash

Liaoning Province 2430-2450 yuan / ton delivered to the factory

Fujian area 2850 yuan / ton

Two lakes area Ex factory reference 2660-2700 yuan / ton ex factory cash

Anhui Province 2600-2620 yuan / ton factory acceptance

Henan Province 2545-2565 yuan / ton ex factory cash

On the downstream side, the formaldehyde market has been rising steadily. Upstream methanol futures trading impact, the cost continued to be high. Dimethyl ether Market offer continued to rise, trading atmosphere is good. The weakness of domestic acetic acid market continued. The recent competition among spot manufacturers is more obvious, which has pushed the market negotiation prices down one after another. Tbe market is mainly stable with limited fluctuation. Crude oil continued to go up, giving support to the market mentality. In addition, after the recent price drop to a low level, some downstream businesses took advantage of low prices to replenish. With the rise of other raw materials, the price gap between MTBE and alkylation and other raw materials narrowed, and the sales pressure of Northern businesses slightly reduced.

In the external market, as of May 12, CFR China methanol closed at 301.50-302.50 US dollars / ton, up 8 US dollars / ton; CFR Southeast Asia methanol 354.00-355.00 USD / ton. US Gulf methanol closed at 110.50-111.50 cents per gallon, down 2 cents per gallon; The closing price of methanol in FOB Rotterdam is 307.00-308.00 euro / ton.

region ., Country. Closing price. Up and down

Asia CFR China 309.50-310.50 USD / T 8 US dollars / ton

Asia CFR Southeast Asia USD 354.00-355.00/t 0 USD / ton

Europe and America Gulf of America 110.50-111.50 cents / gal – 2 cents per gallon

Europe FOB Rotterdam 307.00-308.00 euro / ton 0 euro / ton

In the near future, methanol futures are greatly affected by steam coal futures. At present, the methanol market is basically good. Methanol analysts of business cooperatives expect that the spot market of short-term methanol market will follow up slowly.

The strong coal market on the cost side strongly drives the expectation of methanol futures market. At the same time, the macro side is good, and the methanol futures market is still bullish for a short time under the background of product fundamental preference. At the same time, the methanol spot market is rising slowly. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of May 12, the average price of domestic methanol manufacturers in Shandong was 2625 yuan / ton, with a month on month rise of 11.68% and a year-on-year rise of 23.32%.

In terms of methanol spot market, the new prices of production enterprises in the main production areas of Northwest China were significantly increased to drive the market, while the production enterprises in the inland areas were gradually rising. At present, the social inventory of methanol market is fair, and the price of downstream products is up and down. Most enterprises purchase on demand.

Summary of methanol market prices by Region as of May 12

Region, price

Qinghai Area 2200-2280 yuan / ton factory cash

Shanxi area 2430-2470 yuan / ton factory cash

Liaoning Province 2430-2450 yuan / ton delivered to the factory

Fujian area 2720 yuan / ton, including tax

Two lakes area Ex factory reference 2660-2700 yuan / ton ex factory cash

Anhui Province 2600-2620 yuan / ton factory acceptance

Henan Province 2545-2565 yuan / ton ex factory cash

Downstream, the formaldehyde market rose steadily, the market trading atmosphere is fair. The market price of dimethyl ether went up in a wide range, and the market transaction atmosphere was acceptable. The weakness of domestic acetic acid market continued. The recent competition among spot manufacturers is more obvious, which has pushed the market negotiation prices down one after another. MTBE market in the North continued to decline slightly, while the South remained stable.

In the external market, as of May 11, CFR China methanol closed at 301.50-302.50 US dollars / ton, up 1.5 US dollars / ton; CFR Southeast Asia methanol 354.00-355.00 US dollars / ton, down 5 US dollars / ton. US Gulf methanol closed at 114.50-115.50 cents per gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol closed at 307.00-308.00 euro / ton, down 1 euro / ton.

region ., Country. Closing price. Up and down

Asia CFR China USD 301.50-302.50/t US $1.5/t

Asia CFR Southeast Asia USD 354.00-355.00/t – US $5 / T

Europe and America Gulf of America 114.50-115.50 cents / gal 0 cents per gallon

Europe FOB Rotterdam 307.00-308.00 euro / ton – 1 euro / ton

In the near future, methanol futures are greatly affected by steam coal futures. At present, the methanol market is basically good. Methanol analysts of business cooperatives expect that the spot market of short-term methanol market will follow up slowly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the price of pure benzene rose continuously this week. On April 30, the price of pure benzene was 7350-7500 yuan / ton (average price was 7410 yuan / ton), and on Sunday (May 9), the price of pure benzene was 7600-7853 yuan / ton (average price was 7720 yuan / ton), which was 310 yuan / ton higher than last week, or 4.18%; It was 136.09% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

On the last day before the festival (April 30), Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was increased by 100 yuan / ton to 7400 yuan / ton. After the festival, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was increased again by 300 yuan / ton to 7700 yuan / ton. Crude oil fluctuated at a high level, with good cost support. The pure benzene resources in Europe and the United States are in short supply, and the arbitrage window with Asia is opened, and the price of the external market is rising. At home, the domestic pure benzene market is active, the spot supply is tight, and Sinopec’s listing price is high.

In terms of external market, the short-term resources of pure benzene in Europe and the United States are still in short supply, and the arbitrage window with Asia is open. On Friday (May 7), the reference price of pure benzene in the South Korean market was US $1059.67/t, up US $103 / T or 10.77% from April 30; The import reference price of East China was US $1050 / T, up US $70 / T or 7.14% from April 30.

In terms of crude oil, good news: within the week, OPEC + kept the policy of gradually increasing production unchanged, and the energy demand in Europe and the United States improved to support the market. Bad news: the epidemic situation in India is severe, and the recovery of crude oil demand is full of uncertainty. On April 30, Brent rose $1.775/barrel, or 2.65%; WTI rose $1.4 per barrel, or 2.21%.

Downstream: styrene: the price of styrene rose this week, exceeding 10000 yuan. On May 9, the price of sample enterprises was 10000 yuan / ton, up 2.56% from last week, and 88.68% from the same period last year.

Aniline: aniline is driven by the pure benzene market, and the price rises. On May 9, the price of aniline was 11300-11500 yuan / ton in Shandong and 11700 yuan / ton in Nanjing, up 7.76% from last week and 104.72% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the global economy and demand are expected to improve as a whole, and crude oil has an upward momentum. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the Indian epidemic, OPEC + production reduction plan, global economic data and US crude oil inventory data.

Downstream: downstream main product styrene: the current inventory of styrene is low, the spot circulation is tight, and the price is firm. The cost support is good, and the downstream just need replenishment is OK. In the short term, supported by the strong rise in the cost side, styrene is expected to continue to have strong shocks.

On the market side, the supply of pure benzene in the spot market is tight. In addition, Hongrun Petrochemical has stopped exporting, resulting in a decrease in the supply on the spot market. In terms of external market, Europe and the United States will maintain supply tension in the short term, with strong external support. Overall, the trend of short-term pure benzene is expected to be stronger. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market (mainly styrene inventory, demand changes), domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, external market trends on the price of pure benzene.