According to the data monitored by the business community (average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), on July 16, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 9050 yuan / ton, up 0.56% from 9000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 0.69% month on month, and up 37.43% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the PVC market leveled first and then rose, but there was little fluctuation. The daily adjustment range of enterprises was about 50-100 yuan / ton, continuing to run at a high level. At the beginning of the week, the PVC market was relatively stable. In the middle and late of the week, the futures price fluctuated frequently, reaching 9270 at one time, driving the spot price up slightly. Recently, due to the limited electricity policy, the price of raw calcium carbide has risen to 5000 yuan / ton due to tight supply, and there is still an expectation of an increase. Some PVC plants may be affected and run at reduced load. At the same time, some enterprises have maintenance plans, which is good for the rising price of PVC. But at present, the off-season demand follow-up is general, and the trading atmosphere of high price PVC is general. Therefore, although there is a positive boost, the rise rate is limited.

In terms of spot price, the main quotation range of pvc5 calcium carbide in China is around 9000-9300 yuan / ton. Pvc5 calcium carbide in Hangzhou area is 9120-9250 yuan / ton; The main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Shanghai is 9150-9250 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC in Guangzhou is 9180-9270 yuan / ton; The market fluctuated slightly.

In terms of futures, futures prices continue to rebound and rise, driving the price trend of the spot market. On July 16, v2109 contract opened at 9120, the highest price was 9335, the lowest price was 9070, and the closing price was 9280, up 260, or 2.88%.

For external price, Taiwan Formosa Plastics Co., Ltd. of China issued a new shipping schedule quotation in August, with CFR India down 60 to 1330 US dollars / ton, CFR China down 30 to 1200-1210 US dollars / ton, FOB Northeast Asia to Southeast Asia down 50 to 1190-1200 US dollars / ton, and FOB Northeast Asia to Vietnam down 10 to 1200 US dollars / ton,

region technology 7 / 16 (yuan / ton) 7 / 1 (yuan / ton) Up and down remarks

East China Calcium carbide process 9110-9350 9030-9010 + 80/+240 Delivery

south China Calcium carbide process 9180-9400 9080-9150 + 100/+250 Delivery

North China Calcium carbide process 9030-9170 8930-9010 + 100/+160 To

southwest Calcium carbide process 9100-9200 8950-9100 + 150/+100 To

For international crude oil, on July 15, the international oil price continued the trend of the previous trading day and continued to fall. The settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was 71.65 US dollars / barrel, down 1.48 US dollars or 2.2%, while the settlement price of the main contract in the Brent crude oil futures market was 73.47 US dollars / barrel, down 1.29 US dollars or 1.7%. US oil reached its lowest closing price in nearly a month after OPEC + and OPEC + reached an agreement on increasing production. The bad news caused by the effect of increasing production is still fermenting, and the worry caused by the virus mutation of the epidemic has deepened the decline of oil prices.

Ethylene, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene has fluctuated recently, showing an overall upward trend. On July 14, the price was US $1037.00/ton, and on July 16, the average price of ethylene was US $1048.75/ton, up 1.13%. The current price is down 1.89% month on month, and the current price is up 41.39% compared with last year. At present, crude oil: inventory growth, the market for crude oil market is not optimistic, so business community data analysts expect ethylene price will fall next.

On July 16, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose. The price of orchid charcoal in the upper reaches was high and the cost support was good. The PVC market in the lower reaches rose slightly and the demand for calcium carbide increased. In the future, calcium carbide rose slightly, and a new round of power rationing in Inner Mongolia began, calcium carbide production decreased, and supply exceeded demand.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts from business news agency believe that at present, the price of raw material calcium carbide is limited by electricity, and the supporting force of cost is gradually strengthened. In addition, the rebound of futures has boosted the price of PVC. However, the off-season effect is still there, so the sharp rise of PVC is restrained, and the resistance of downstream is still there. In the short term, the PVC market is playing a long and short game, and the price may continue to rise slightly, but the increase is limited, The idea of shock operation remains unchanged.

According to the monitoring of the business society, the price index of domestic rare earth market rose, the price of PR nd Series in China rose, while the price of heavy rare earth market remained high. According to the index of rare earth plate of business agency, the rare earth index on July 14 was 524, up 3 points from yesterday, down 47.60% from the highest point 1000 in the week (2011-12-06), It was 93.36% higher than the 271 point of the lowest point on September 13, 2015（ Note: the cycle refers to December 1, 2011 to present).

It can be seen clearly from the rare earth index chart that the domestic rare earth price has risen since July, and the main commodity prices in the rare earth market have increased to varying degrees in recent years, and the trend of rare earth market has improved. See the product as follows:

It can be seen clearly from the product price trend chart that the prices of mainstream products such as neodymium oxide, neodymium metal, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium alloy, praseodymium oxide and praseodymium metal have gradually increased. As of July 15, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earth is 5375000 yuan / ton; The price of neodymium metal is 660000 yuan / ton; The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is 5425000 yuan / ton; The price of praseodymium nd alloy is 6675000 yuan / ton; The price of praseodymium is 700000 yuan / ton; Praseodymium oxide price is 5725000 yuan / ton, and all products have increased to different degrees. In July, the market trend of domestic light rare earth market gradually increased, and the market situation improved.

The domestic rare earth market continues to rise, the supply and demand structure turns to a large turning point, the demand for high-end magnetic materials is large, and the profit space of the rare earth industry chain is open. Recently, China’s rare earth quota at the supply end may steadily increase, supply rigidity is optimized, and new energy efficiency standards are implemented. The penetration rate of NdFeB in domestic household appliances variable frequency air conditioning will continue to increase, and the demand end is expected to continue to rise. New energy vehicles are selling normally, and demand for rare earth is at a high level. The main rare earth materials of high performance NdFeB are light rare earth, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide. They are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy saving, frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional automobiles and other fields. According to statistics, the sales of new energy vehicles are still good. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in may2021, the sales volume of the automobile industry is estimated to complete 2.24 million vehicles, a 2.1% decrease on a month-on-year basis, an increase of 0.5% year on year; From January to may, the cumulative sales volume of the automobile industry is estimated to be 10.951 million, an increase of 37.6% year-on-year. How much lower demand has increased in recent years, and the price of light rare earth market continues to rise.

According to the trend chart, the price trend of dysprosium system in China is relatively stable, and the price of dysprosium oxide is 2.475 million yuan / ton as of the 15th day; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.45 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium metal is 3.31 million yuan / ton, the domestic price of terbium system is correspondingly higher, the price of terbium oxide in China is 7 million yuan / ton, and the price of terbium metal is 8.725 million yuan / ton. The domestic rare earth market has improved, leading magnetic material plants continue to expand, and the demand for replenishment of the warehouse makes the price of the domestic heavy rare earth market rise. In addition, Myanmar forbids export. The global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated, and Myanmar is one of the production areas next to the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on domestic heavy rare earth market products, with a large reduction in imported goods sources, general supply of heavy rare earth market in the site, positive downstream procurement in recent years, and rising market price.

The recent notice on the implementation of industrial energy conservation supervision in 2021 emphasizes comprehensive sorting and investigation of key industry enterprises such as steel, nonferrous metal smelting, petrochemical industry and building materials, and special supervision on the implementation of mandatory energy consumption limit standards of unit products, and finally fully covers energy conservation supervision of key industry enterprises during the “14th five year plan”. In addition, Wang Jiangping, Vice Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology last week, said at the video conference on industrial and information system industry policies and regulations, that he would focus on optimizing the development environment of industry enterprises, accelerate the promotion of legislation on telecommunication law and promote the promulgation of the rare earth regulations as soon as possible. Industry insiders believe that this reflects the government’s strengthening of the management and control of the rare earth industry, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Since 2021, the overall demand for rare earth products is still acceptable, the demand of downstream has increased in recent years, and the phenomenon of replenishment of the warehouse is frequent, and the price of domestic rare earth market has increased.

With the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and frequency conversion air conditioning downstream of rare earth, the demand side continues, and the domestic rare earth supply is normal, the recent on-site transactions increase and the purchase is positive. Chenling, an analyst at business society, expects the market price of rare earth to maintain a rise in the later period.

According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, as of July 14, the average price of melamine enterprises was 12200 yuan / ton, up 4.87% compared with the price at the beginning of the week, up 12.96% compared with the price at the beginning of the month, and up 18.06% compared with the price on June 14.

The overall trend of melamine market rose in June, with a monthly increase of 18.38%. In July, the market was mainly stable, and the price continued to rise at the beginning of this week. Recently, the spot supply is tight, the market is rising, the factory controls the delivery rhythm, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the enterprise makes high-end offers.

Upstream urea, Shandong urea market rose on July 14, 1.84% higher than the price at the beginning of the week. On the whole, urea cost support is strengthened, downstream demand is stable, and urea supply is tight.

Melamine analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the upstream urea price is relatively strong, the cost impact is limited, the market supply is tight, and the price is supported. It is expected that the melamine market will be mainly strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

Recent trend of urea price

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province fell this week, from 2760.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2690.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.54%, up 63.36% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the urea market fell this week, with the urea commodity index at 125.12 on July 9.

Upstream support strengthened, downstream demand slowed down and supply side was tight

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong fell this week. Urea in Yangmei plain has not been quoted this week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2690 yuan / ton this weekend, down 70 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea has not been quoted this week.

From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain, the upstream products of urea increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas rose sharply, from 3750.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3993.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 6.49%, up 62.77% compared with the same period last year; The price of steam coal rose slightly, from 965.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 982.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.81%, up 64.85% over the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 4433.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4450.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 0.38%, 44.32% over the same period last year. Melamine in the lower reaches of urea rose slightly this week, from 10833.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 10900.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.62%.

In terms of demand, there is a small amount of topdressing in North and East China, but the overall demand is general; The downstream compound fertilizer, rubber sheet factory and melamine enterprise started well, and most of them were purchased and used at any time, and followed up at a proper amount. From the aspect of supply: in the near future, the urea plant maintenance is still the same, the start-up recovery is slow, the daily output is less than 160000 tons, the supply side is tight, and the enterprise inventory and social inventory are also maintained at a low position. International: it is said that India will issue a new round of import bidding this month, which will boost the domestic market mentality. On the whole, urea cost support is strengthened, downstream demand is weakened, and urea supply is tight.

India standard boost, future price bullish

In the middle of July, the urea market in Shandong may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand in various regions has declined, but the industrial demand is not obviously positive, the urea supply is tight, and the downstream businesses have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for high price urea. However, India may issue a new round of import bidding, which will boost the domestic market mentality, and the future market price may fluctuate slightly.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of activated carbon was 9200 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week and 9166 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with a drop of 0.36%.

At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is about 7000-12000 yuan / ton; The domestic activated carbon market has not changed much, and the quotation is stable. With the flexibility of traders, the terminal demand has not changed significantly. The factory still purchases on demand to meet normal production, and the overall trading atmosphere is flat.

The raw materials of activated carbon are rich, including coal, sawdust, fruit shell, straw, etc.

Forecast: the overall market of activated carbon market is mainly stable, and some offers are slightly down. It is expected that the activated carbon market will be mainly volatile in the short term.