On August 6, 2109, the main contract for the opening of petroleum asphalt futures, closed up 2.92%, with a good rise. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of August 6, the average spot price of domestic asphalt was 3413 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 1.95% and a year-on-year increase of 33.86%.

In the spot asphalt market, with the improvement of the weather, the downstream has resumed normal construction, and the demand is slowly recovering and improving. At present, the international crude oil price has dropped significantly, the asphalt futures spot market is relatively resistant to decline, and there are even signs of a narrow recovery.

At present, the operating rate of the whole asphalt industry is low, and the supply of goods is good for the future. The asphalt analysts of the business society expect that the domestic asphalt spot market is expected to be dominated by high-level consolidation in the near future.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate broke the calm and rose rapidly in August. On August 4, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 89000 yuan / ton, which was 1.14% higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 88000 yuan / ton on August 1). On August 4, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 92200 yuan / ton, up 0.66% from the beginning of the month (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 91600 yuan / ton on August 1). On the 4th, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market was around 86000 ~ 92000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market was around 91000 ~ 96000 yuan / ton.

From the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate broke the calm and began to boost from the middle of July. After entering August, the price rose rapidly, and the prices of many enterprises rose one after another. At present, lithium carbonate has a variety of raw materials, including salt lake brine, mica ore and so on. Since the second quarter, the domestic lithium carbonate production has increased significantly, 40% higher than the average level in 2020, but in the third quarter, it is still facing a tight supply situation, so the price can rise smoothly. Coupled with the capacity expansion of downstream cathode materials, the demand for lithium raw materials has increased significantly, which makes the tight supply of lithium still unable to be alleviated for a long time.

In addition to the tight supply situation, the recent price rise is also affected by the rise in the spot price of “lithium carbonate 2110″ in Wuxi stainless steel electronic trading center, coupled with the hoarding and market speculation of individual manufacturers, resulting in the continuous rise in the price of lithium carbonate. The price of lithium hydroxide in the downstream has continued to grow steadily, while the price of lithium iron phosphate is slightly stable.

On August 3, the lithium carbonate commodity index was 224.71, the same as yesterday, down 44.53% from the highest point of 405.10 in the cycle (2018-01-07), and up 128.04% from the lowest point of 98.54 on October 16, 2014（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business society, at present, the downstream demand is growing strongly, and the price rise of lithium carbonate is rising again. In addition, under the background of “carbon neutralization”, the growth of new energy industry chain determines that the demand for lithium carbonate is expected to maintain a high boom, and it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate may continue to fluctuate upward in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The price of toluene rose this week, according to the bulk list data of business society. On July 25, the price of toluene was 5780 yuan / ton; The price on Sunday (August 1) was 0.52 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton or 0.52% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 72.92%.

2、 Analysis and review

The overall domestic toluene price has not changed much this week. Due to the reduction of supply in South China, the holders are willing to support the price. Crude oil prices rose this week with good cost support, but due to weather and other factors, toluene demand was weak, long and short offset, and the price fluctuated in a narrow range. In terms of external market, as of July 30, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $765 / ton, down US $4 / ton, or 0.52%, compared with July 23.

In terms of crude oil, the spread of isovirus strains dragged down the market mentality, but the inventory of crude oil and refined oil in the United States decreased, and the demand recovery was good, boosting the oil price. On July 16, Brent rose $2.23 / barrel, or 3.01%; WTI rose $1.88/barrel, or 2.61%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China remained stable this week, and the price of domestic goods was 14333.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 35.82% over the same period last year. The domestic TDI market is waiting to be sorted out. The offer of the cargo holder is large, stable and small. The transaction on the floor is not smooth. The negotiation and shipment are mainly focused. The downstream just needs to follow up. The enthusiasm for entering the market is not high, and the atmosphere on the floor is weak.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable for four consecutive weeks this week, with the price at 7100 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 47.92%. As of July 30, the closing prices in Asia were USD 940-942 / T FOB Korea and USD 958-960 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analysts from the chemical branch of business society believe that: at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of U.S. oil drilling platforms and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States and the progress related to the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the US dollar index and stock market linkage.

Crude oil is expected to remain high in the short term, with good cost support; Downstream PX enterprises still have purchase intention and have certain support for toluene demand. Continue to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external market, maintenance dynamics of toluene unit, toluene inventory information and the impact of downstream demand on toluene price.

Aluminum prices fluctuated upward in July, up 2.69% this week

On July 30, the average market price of aluminum ingot was 19856.67 yuan / ton, up 2.69% from the average market price of 19336.677 yuan / ton last Friday.

According to the data of business agency, on July 30, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 19856.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.45% compared with the average market price of 18830 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Taking the average market price of aluminum ingot at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) of 15726.67 yuan / ton as the benchmark price, it has increased by 26.26%.

Summary of aluminum market

Inventory: the social inventory data of aluminum ingots supported the aluminum price. On July 28, according to statistics, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 765000 tons, down 36000 tons compared with the previous week, especially in Shanghai, Wuxi and the South China Sea.

In terms of supply: the second round of storage dumping began, and the second batch of storage dumping was 90000 tons, slightly lower than the 100000 tons generally expected by the market. Due to the impact of the power consumption peak in summer, the power load pressure of China Southern Power Grid has not decreased. Yunnan electrolytic aluminum plant may be required to increase from the previous 25% limit to 30%. Electrolytic aluminum plants in Guizhou and Guangxi also began to limit power slightly two weeks ago, Some aluminum enterprises chose to carry out annual maintenance in advance or reduce the load a little to deal with the resumption of production capacity shut down in Yunnan Province. There was little hope in July, and the monthly reduction was more than 70000. Overall, the second round of negative reserve selling was partially offset.

Future forecast

The market expects that the State Reserve will start to throw away its reserves or at the end of the year, about 50000 tons per month, and the supply is expected to change from tight to balanced in the second half of the year. In addition, Russia plans to increase tariffs on exported aluminum ingots from August to the end of the year, which is expected to have little impact on aluminum prices.

Business analysts believe that the current price range of 18500-20000 yuan / ton is a steady-state shock range formed by the market game. It is expected that the price of aluminum ingot will still operate around 19000 yuan / ton in the near future

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride rose this week. As of July 31, the average price of maleic anhydride by benzene hydrogenation remained at 11500 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.22% compared with the average price of 11250 yuan / ton on July 26, and an increase of 19.17% compared with the same period last month.

On July 31, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 108.33, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.40% from the highest point of 123.67 in the cycle (December 26, 2017), and up 111.66% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the start of domestic benzene maleic anhydride market was basically stable. International crude oil rose and domestic chemical prices rose slightly; The operating rate of unsaturated resin in the downstream decreased, and the resin market was dominated by weak consolidation and just needed procurement. As of the 30th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 10800 yuan / ton, the liquid anhydride in Jiangsu was about 11000 yuan / ton, the solid anhydride in Shanxi was about 11000 yuan / ton, the solid anhydride in Hebei was about 11000 yuan / ton, and the solid anhydride in South China was about 11400 yuan / ton.

Upstream, the price of pure benzene decreased slightly this week. On July 26, the average price of pure benzene was 8210.00 yuan / ton, and on July 31, the average price of pure benzene was 8190.00 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton, down 0.24%. This week, the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong was temporarily stable, at 7950 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 7925 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a decrease of 25 yuan / ton. The overall stable and weak operation is dominated. The price of n-butane decreased slightly, and the price in Shandong was 4650 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 30th week of 2021 (7.26-7.30), there are 41 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 5.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were boric acid (13.26%), acrylic acid (9.90%) and light soda ash (7.41%). A total of 21 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 3 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 3.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were epichlorohydrin (- 8.73%), propylene oxide (- 7.91%) and chloroform (- 5.78%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.46%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the maleic anhydride product analysts of business society, at present, the domestic maleic anhydride market mainly implements early orders, and the factory has no inventory pressure, but the downstream demand is limited, and the maleic anhydride price is under pressure. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will be dominated by weak consolidation in the near future.