Product Name: n-propanol

Latest price (September 30): 7733 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on September 30, the domestic n-propanol market generally operated stably. The average ex factory price of n-propanol was 7733 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that of the previous working day. On the 30th, the trading atmosphere in the domestic n-propanol market was general, the downstream demand stock volume was small, the quotation of the industry was mostly stable, and the market fundamentals were calm.

Future forecast: according to the continuous implementation of the current energy consumption dual control policy, the probability of a significant increase in the market demand for n-propanol in the short term is small. It is expected that in the short term, most of China’s domestic n-propanol market will continue to operate stably, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the follow-up of downstream demand.

Product Name: butanone

Latest price (September 30): 9033 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on September 30, the domestic butanone market rose slightly. The average ex factory price of butanone was 9033 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous working day, the average price increased by 33 yuan / ton, or 0.37%. On the 30th, the butanone factory in Shandong raised the ex factory price of butanone slightly by 100 yuan / ton. The procurement intention of butanone downstream before the festival was basically ended, and the market trading atmosphere was general.

Future forecast: I heard that before the national day, the butanone plant in Ningbo was shut down for maintenance, and the market supply decreased. However, due to the fact that the downstream pre festival goods preparation was basically completed, it had little impact on the market trend. Under the condition that the butanone market inventory remained low after the festival, the butanone price is expected to rise after the festival. More attention should be paid to the follow-up of downstream demand.

Trade name: sulfur

Latest price (September 30): 1970.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of sulfur in East China was temporarily stable on the 30th. Refineries in various regions quoted prices according to their own shipments. The mainstream price of solid sulfur in East China of Sinopec was 1900-1990 yuan / ton; Sinopec’s mainstream price of solid sulfur in North China is 1830-1890 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of sulfur and solid sulfur in Sinopec Shandong is 1950 yuan / ton. The inventory of refineries in various regions of China remains low, downstream traders purchase on demand, enterprise shipments are relatively stable, it is difficult to find low prices in the field, the high price of sulfur is strong, and the mentality of operators in the field is mainly wait-and-see.

Future forecast: at present, the domestic sulfur market is temporarily stable and wait-and-see. From the perspective of shipment, the refinery is mainly stable, the downstream phosphate fertilizer market is weak, the delivery of export orders is mainly, and the support for sulfur is weak. It is expected that the future sulfur market is temporarily stable and wait-and-see, and pay attention to the market transaction.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic POM market rose in September, and the spot price was high. As of September 29, the average price offered by POM injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 19100 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.75% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of POM upstream formaldehyde, the market of formaldehyde in Shandong was strong and upward in September, and the operation of formaldehyde enterprises did not improve significantly, which continued to be low. At present, the upstream methanol market is high and the price remains high. In the second half of the month, the operating rate of the downstream plate plant continued to be low under the power restriction policy, the demand was general, the market negotiation atmosphere gradually cooled, and the formaldehyde market fluctuated and consolidated.

The trend of upstream formaldehyde is strong, the cost side support of POM is strong, and the high ex factory price of enterprises remains firm. In terms of industrial load, there were many polymerization plants with reduced maintenance burden this month, the operating rate was not high, Shenhua Ningmei stopped for short repair at the end of the month, and the market supply continued to be low. At the same time, there are few goods in the site, which is beneficial to the POM supply end. Tianye Chemical M90 quoted a reference price of about 18400 yuan / ton for negotiation. The ex factory reference price of Yuntianhua M90 is about 19300 yuan / ton, which is subject to firm negotiation. The reference price of Shenhua Ningmei mc90 is about 18800 yuan / ton, and the cash is withdrawn by itself. The reference price of Tianye Chemical is about 19200 yuan / ton. The merchant’s holding volume continued to be low, and the high offer remained stable. However, there is resistance to high price goods in the downstream, especially the weak trading in the latter ten days, and the end-user’s goods taking operation is biased towards just demand.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic POM market rose in September and the spot price was high at the end of the month. Upstream formaldehyde prices also strengthened, and POM cost support increased. The on-site supply fell due to the continuous low operating rate of the industry, and there was good at the supply end. However, in terms of demand, the willingness to receive goods is not high. Near the end of the month, the delivery of high-priced goods on the site is not smooth, and the delivery is cold. The market is weak in both supply and demand. It is expected that the POM market may turn into a weak operation in the short term.

Recently, a number of water treatment enterprises in the circle of friends of the water treatment data division of the business society issued such notices: “yesterday’s prices were all invalid”, “oral reservation is not accepted, payment, order and delivery”… The content is quite shocking. What happened? Please see the following thumbnail first:

It turns out that under the recent national “double control” policy, the price of chemical raw materials has increased. Under the comprehensive influence of factors such as the substantial increase of raw material cost and production cost, the reduction of spot inventory and national day order arrangement, the market of water treatment products has risen rapidly recently. The manufacturer’s quotation is cautious, the pricing and delivery are subject to the price of the day, and oral reservation is not accepted. In fact, the order arrangement is subject to payment.

Data monitoring shows that since the middle of the year, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s market has been greatly adjusted, especially on the 22nd-28th, the price rose sharply from 14962.5 yuan / ton to 16225 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 8%.

Among them, the continuous rise of raw acrylic acid is the main influencing factor. Since the middle of the year, under the influence of the “double control” policy, the operating rate of the industry has continued to decrease, and the supply of spot acrylic acid in the market is tight. Acrylic acid has risen sharply from 15166 yuan / ton to about 18366 yuan / ton, an increase of 21%, resulting in a significant increase in the cost price of polyacrylamide and a rise in the market; As for the other raw material acrylonitrile, the recent price change, the mainstream quotation in the market is still about 14900-15000 yuan / ton, which has little impact on the cost of polyacrylamide.

Secondly, the recent sharp rise in the market of fuel liquefied natural gas has a certain impact on the market of polyacrylamide.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the mainstream market price of liquefied natural gas in China rose sharply from the 14th to the 16th in the middle of the year, about 10%, and then the market fluctuated slightly. By the second half of the 28th, the mainstream price in the domestic market rose from 5833 yuan / ton to about 6290 yuan / ton, an increase of about 7.83%. It is reported that the liquid plant has strong sentiment of supporting the price. Under the circumstances of strict dual control of energy consumption and reduced demand of downstream gas consuming enterprises this month, the price of LNG remains volatile and the market is relatively strong. In the future, it is expected that the domestic liquid price will generally operate stably in the short term, but it is inevitable to reduce the price and arrange the inventory near the National Day holiday.

As for the future market, the change of downstream demand for polyacrylamide has little impact on the recent market, while the change of cost pressure and inventory is the prominent influencing factor of the recent sharp rise of polyacrylamide market. Under the current situation, in response to the national policy of “dual control of energy consumption”, the enterprise has limited operation, tight market supply and continuous rise in the market of raw acrylic acid; The fuel liquefied natural gas is also affected by the policy, so it is expected that in the future, the acrylic acid market may be strong in the short term, and polyacrylamide is likely to continue to rise in the future.