According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 15, 2022, the reference price of the domestic silicone DMC market was 16980 yuan/ton. Compared with the reference price of 16800 yuan/ton on December 9, 2022, the price increased by 150 yuan/ton, or 1.07%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that this week (12.09-12.15), the domestic silicone DMC market generally ran up in a narrow range. In this week, Shandong large silicone DMC factories raised the price of silicone DMC to 16900 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton. At present, the downstream demand of silicone DMC has improved to a certain extent, but the overall demand is still based on cautious low mining. After Shandong’s big factories led the rise, other monomer factories mainly offered multi-dimensional stable prices, and the difference between high and low prices in the silicone DMC market narrowed. As of December 15, the market price of domestic silicone DMC was around 16900-17200 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the future trend of silicone DMC market

It is heard that there is a restart plan for the silicone DMC device in Jiangsu recently, and the on-site supply of silicone DMC may increase. The silicone DMC data engineer of the business community believes that, as the downstream pre holiday stock has not been fully opened, if there is no decrease in supply, the momentum for the silicone DMC market to continue to rise is insufficient. In the short term, the silicone DMC market will mostly adjust to operate in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the changes in supply and demand information after the specific trend.

On December 1, the average production price of paraformaldehyde in Shandong was 5433.33 yuan/ton, and on December 14, the average production price of paraformaldehyde in Shandong was 5416.67 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. It fell 14.92% year on year.

Upstream methanol situation: domestic methanol market fluctuated, mainly due to supply and demand. In terms of supply, most production enterprises focus on de stocking, and traditional downstream enterprises also have early parking performance, resulting in weak overall demand performance.

Recently, the methanol market has a trend of shock and decline, and the cost support is poor. In addition, the logistics in Shandong is not smooth, and the polyformaldehyde analysts of the business community predict that the price may fall slightly.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market of imported potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week, with the price of 3883.33 yuan/ton. The arrival price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes this week is 3500-3600 yuan/ton. On December 11, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 102.19, unchanged from yesterday, 29.40% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 144.74 (2022-06-21), and 5.67% higher than the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of domestic mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers is temporarily stable this week: the arrival price of 60% potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake is 3500-3600 yuan/ton. Xiangyang Youdeshi’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 3800 yuan/ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend. Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 4000 yuan/ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend. Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 3850 yuan/ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend. The self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is about 3700-3800 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is about 3800-4000 yuan/ton. 62% of Russian white potassium in border trade is about 3600 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of the downstream market of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate was adjusted at a low level this week, at 9225.00 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 13.42%. This week, the factory price of potassium nitrate was adjusted at a low level, at 5875.00 yuan/ton, down 0.42% year on year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride was consolidated at a low level, and the downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride was average.

3、 Future market forecast

In the middle and late December, the overall trend of potassium chloride market was dominated by narrow fluctuations. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangger was adjusted at a low level. The downstream market of potassium chloride was consolidated at a low level. The downstream demand was general, and the procurement was mainly just needed. International potash fertilizer prices rose slightly. Potassium chloride analysts from the business community believe that the domestic potassium chloride import price may rise slightly in the short term.

Since October, the domestic bisphenol A market has fallen sharply. As of December 12, the market negotiation was 10000-10100 yuan/ton, and the low point fell below 10000 yuan on December 8. The negotiation fell to 9850 yuan/ton, 40% lower than the market negotiation of 16475 yuan/ton on September 27. The downtrend is mainly due to the intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand. This wave of downtrend has made BPA enterprises enter into a loss state. Due to the deviation of upstream and downstream fluctuations in the industrial chain, the profits of major products in the BPA industrial chain have been redistributed.

New capacity was put into production in the fourth quarter, and the supply increased sharply

The supply of domestic bisphenol A has increased significantly since the fourth quarter, but the loss of domestic devices is significantly lower than the increase in production, except for the centralized maintenance of several devices in November. The domestic supply of bisphenol A has an obvious increasing trend. It is expected that the output in December will reach 260000 tons, compared with the previous monthly average output of 180000 to 200000 tons, the overall supply in the fourth quarter has increased significantly.

Due to the epidemic situation, downstream demands such as epoxy resin are difficult to release

Under the influence of the domestic multi spot epidemic in November again, the downstream demand and consumption decreased. Most products such as epoxy resin and PC used to digest the raw materials in stock, and the purchase intention weakened. With the decrease of terminal orders, downstream products such as epoxy resin fell synchronously.

Profit redistribution of bisphenol A industrial chain in the fourth quarter

It can be seen from the industrial chain diagram of bisphenol A that the decline of bisphenol A is much greater than that of raw materials phenol and acetone. In the fourth quarter, the profit space of bisphenol A gradually decreased. In December, with the sharp rebound of phenol/acetone market, the profit of bisphenol A industry entered a loss state. From the perspective of the two downstream areas, the decline of epoxy resin was equivalent to that of raw materials, while the decline of PC products was lower than that of raw materials bisphenol A due to the impact of their own supply and demand. However, in view of the impact of high price raw materials bisphenol A, PC was in a loss state. Since November, the downstream PC has turned into a profit, and the gross profit of the industry has increased.

From the perspective of cost, the raw material phenol/acetone continued to be strong in December. Bisphenol A had a downward trend on the 9th due to cost support. However, with the impact of import supply supplement and device restart, the contradiction between supply and demand was weakened. The phenol/acetone callback on the raw material side was expected to be large, and the support from the cost side was weakened. From the perspective of demand, it is still difficult to recover downstream demand before the year, and the supply of bisphenol A is expected to be 260000 tons in December. In addition, although supporting devices are put into production in the downstream, the increase is far less than the raw material end, and the short-term contradiction between supply and demand of bisphenol A is still prominent. It is expected that bisphenol A will rise in a narrow range in the short term or supported by costs. However, after adjustment, the market of bisphenol A will be consolidated and operated in the bottoming out period with the gradual release of new capacity and loose supply.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fell one after another this week. The average price of the Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7720 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7434 yuan/ton. The weekly decline was 3.7%, up 2.62% from 30 days ago.

As of December 9, the mainstream prices of propylene in different regions in China are as follows:

Region. December 2

Shandong Province/7400-7500 yuan/ton

Northeast China/7100-7200 yuan/ton

East China/7300-7350 yuan/ton

2、 Analysis and review

According to the monitoring of the business community, propylene fell back after rising this week, and the price rose like a flash in the pan. The price fell rapidly due to the lack of real order support. At the beginning of the week, due to the price rising to a high level last week, downstream polypropylene and other products’ profits were tightened, the commencement of work was reduced, and procurement was restrained. In order to stabilize the delivery of propylene, the prices of propylene enterprises decreased successively. On the news side, the crude oil price continued to drop, further depressing the mentality of the industry. As of this Friday, Shandong’s mainstream quotation was 7400-7450 yuan/ton.

Upstream: On the cost side, the crude oil price continued to decline this week. As of the closing of December 9, the WTI fell 0.44 to 71.02 US dollars/barrel in January 2023, down 0.62%; In February 2023, Brent fell 0.05 to 76.10 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.07%. The price of crude oil hit a new low in the year, and the cost of propylene moved downward.

Downstream: The market of some products in the downstream mainly declined. In the past three months, the market showed a small rise and a sharp fall. The decline of some products exceeded 20%. In order to control profits and reduce negative operation, the demand for propylene was restrained.

3、 Future market forecast

According to propylene analysts from Chemical Branch of Business Cooperative, the economic recession is expected to remain unchanged. With the accumulation of upstream inventory, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is not high. It is expected that propylene will still have room for decline next week.