According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market overall showed a weak trend this week (February 10-14), with the current average PTA market price in East China at 5084 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.67% from the beginning of the week.

At the beginning of the week, the PX market on the raw material side saw a slight decrease in the negative load of the 4 million ton PX plant in East China, and a 400000 ton PX plant in South Korea was shut down, which strengthened the expectation of a tightening of the PX supply and demand pattern. The strong rise in PX provided stronger support for PTA costs. But with the continuous increase of US crude oil inventories, in addition to signals from the Federal Reserve that the pace of macro interest rate cuts has slowed down, and the possibility of easing geopolitical tensions, international oil prices have declined. As of February 13th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.29 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $75.02 per barrel, providing downward support for PTA costs.

In terms of supply, the maintenance of a 2.5 million ton PTA plant in Hainan has boosted the PTA spot market, with an industry operating rate of around 83%. In February, another 2.5 million plants are scheduled for maintenance, and the PTA operating rate is expected to decline. However, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream polyester load has decreased significantly, resulting in seasonal accumulation of PTA supply and demand. Social inventory is expected to reach new highs, and the impact of plant maintenance on PTA supply is limited.

In terms of demand, polyester plants that have reduced production and undergone maintenance before the Spring Festival in February have started to restart one after another, and the operating rate of the domestic polyester industry has slightly increased to over 82%. The terminal weaving market is gradually recovering and recovering after the holiday, but there are fewer new orders. Manufacturers have sufficient stock of raw materials before the holiday and are digesting their previous raw material inventory. In the short term, their willingness to purchase is not strong, and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude.

Analysts from the business community believe that with workers returning to their posts after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), the downstream enterprises will be more willing to replenish their stocks, and the demand will be further repaired. However, there is a possibility of easing the geopolitical situation in the crude oil market, and prices may run weakly, weakening the support for PTA costs. In addition, the pressure of PTA inventory accumulation in February is still relatively high, and the maintenance of some PTA factory equipment has limited impact on spot supply. The overall supply of goods is still abundant, and high inventory still suppresses PTA prices. Therefore, in the short term, PTA prices may continue to be weak.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of TDI in the domestic market has remained stable and high recently. As of this Friday, TDI domestic goods are priced around 14600-14800 yuan/ton, while Shanghai goods are priced between 14800-15100 yuan/ton. The supplier has a strong willingness to raise prices, the downstream market is cautious in entering the market, and the demand for essential goods is the main focus. The downstream has a strong resistance to high priced goods, and it is expected that the TDI market will maintain a high level of operation in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, since February, the domestic adipic acid market has seen an increase, supported by favorable factors, with a growth rate of over 2%. On February 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 8400 yuan/ton. On February 12th, the average market price of adipic acid in China was 8600 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.38%.

Liduo continues to rebound in the domestic adipic acid market

Starting from February, the prices of pure benzene and cyclohexanone raw materials for adipic acid have risen, supported by the stocking situation in the terminal plastic industry. The prices of adipic acid manufacturers have also increased, and the domestic adipic acid market has seen improved transactions, leading to a warming of the market. The average market price has risen to 8500-8700 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 200 yuan/ton.

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in mid to late February, the demand in the terminal industry remained stable, the raw material market remained stable, and the adipic acid market had weak upward momentum in the future, mainly due to weak operations.

Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market in early February was generally weak, with some spot prices of certain brands experiencing a slight decline. As of February 10th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16400 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.51% compared to early February.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: In February, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises remained stable with an increase, and the industry average operating rate increased by about 3% to 81% compared to before the holiday. The average weekly production remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons, and the on-site supply of goods is still abundant. The supply-demand imbalance pattern remains unchanged. The inventory position is on the high side, and the manufacturer’s pricing continues to be at the pre holiday level. The market supply side’s support for PC prices is average.

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that after the significant rebound of bisphenol A at the end of last year, the long positions before the holiday gradually exhausted. In addition, the recovery of demand side after the holiday still needs a process, and the upward trend of bisphenol A price was hindered before entering the consolidation market. Upstream acetone has risen within ten days, boosting the confidence of industry players. Overall, the support of raw materials for PC costs is still acceptable.

On the demand side: The PC consumption pattern has been weak for a long time, and the overall trend continues to be weak at the end of last year. The pre holiday purchasing logic is focused on weak demand, with average stocking efforts and a wait-and-see attitude among businesses. Recently, downstream factories have been slow to return due to holidays, and the load on end enterprises is not high. Buyers are resistant to high priced goods. The slow circulation of goods in the market has limited changes, and the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.

Future forecast

The domestic PC market had a weak consolidation in early February. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently maintaining consolidation, providing sufficient support for the PC cost side. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has increased by more than 3%, while the supply remains loose. The high level of inventory in the industry has limited changes, and there has been no substantial improvement in supply pressure. In early February, the recovery of downstream demand was slow, and there was some pre holiday inventory digestion. It will take some time for businesses to return. It is expected that PC will continue to focus on organizing and running in the short term.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on February 8th, the domestic market price of silicon metal # 441 was based on 11220 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as January 27th. Compared with January 1st (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 11690 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.02%.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that after the Spring Festival holiday, the overall consolidation and operation of the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 is dominant. In the post holiday period, the overall volatility of the metal silicon spot market # 441 is relatively small, the market performance is stable, and the overall news is relatively calm. Downstream user demand inquiries are gradually recovering, and the current market price is basically unchanged from before the holiday. As of February 8th, the reference price for metal silicon 441 # in East China is around 11100~11300 yuan/ton, in Kunming it is around 11300~11500 yuan/ton, in Huangpu Port it is around 11100~11300 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin it is around 11000~11100 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Market Factors

In terms of raw materials: After the holiday, the domestic price of silica has temporarily stabilized, and some factories have resumed shipments. The current demand from downstream users is average, and the demand heat is limited. Currently, the reference price for low-grade silica ore exports in Yunnan is around 340-360 yuan/ton. The reference price for high-grade silica ore export in Inner Mongolia is around 360-390 yuan/ton. The reference price for high-grade ore export in Hubei region is around 420-450 yuan/ton.

In terms of construction: In February, the performance of domestic industrial silicon sorting construction is still relatively differentiated. The overall construction rate in Xinjiang is expected to remain around 6 floors, while the construction rate in Northwest China is gradually recovering at around 80%. Some small factories in Yunnan have a slower recovery in construction, and the overall construction rate is expected to be around 25-28.

On the supply side: During the Spring Festival holiday, transportation capacity decreased, and shipments of silicon metal weakened. Downstream users mainly digested the raw materials in the early stage. Currently, it is expected that the overall supply of silicon metal will slightly increase compared to the end of January.

On the demand side: After the holiday, downstream demand for metallic silicon is slowly recovering, with downstream purchases mainly based on demand, and weak supply and demand transmission.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is relatively light. Metal silicon and upstream and downstream factories are gradually resuming operations, and the transmission between supply and demand is gradually recovering. Business Society’s metal silicon data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly operate steadily. It is expected that downstream demand will improve significantly by March, and the market situation will usher in a recovery operation. Specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.