from capacity utilization, industry profits and prices, China’s iron and steel, cement, coal and nonferrous metal industry overcapacity situation still exists; from the industrial cycle perspective, China’s current capacity in the contraction phase. From the demand side, industry investment demand will be suppressed; from the supply side, industrial production growth will slow; from the price side, the industrial field will relieve the pressure of deflation.
China’s coal, steel and other commodity prices last year, this is the comprehensive effect of demand in some industries and low price rise, limited production base, and other factors are expected results. In 2017, the demand side of the steel, coal, nonferrous metals, cement and other industrial prices do not support the formation of. There is no obvious shrinkage on the supply side of the case, the price of industrial products based on the current price level, will maintain the operation situation of a steady decrease slightly.
The overall capacity of our country is still excess
The 1 major economic indicators showed the presence of overcapacity in China
Existing research results, determine the excess capacity from the capacity utilization, industry profits and price indicators in three areas of comprehensive judgment.
From the capacity utilization rate, by the end of 2015, China’s coal, crude steel and cement capacity utilization rates were 64.9%, 67.2% and 67%. 10 at the end of 2016 has been basically completed the coal and steel industry two annual capacity to task. In 2016, the coal industry to the production capacity of 2.9 tons, 2.5 tons compared with the beginning of the development of the target exceeded 16%; iron and steel industry to the production capacity of 65 million tons, compared with the beginning of the development of 45 million tons target exceeded 44.4%. At present, the two industry capacity utilization rate is still less than 70%.
According to the United States and other countries experience, with capacity utilization as an index to evaluate whether the excess capacity of the normal value of 79%-83%. China’s steel industry “13th Five-Year” plan proposed 80% reasonable capacity utilization. In view of this, from the current data, China’s production capacity utilization rate was significantly lower.
Profits from the industry perspective, since 2012, the steel industry profit growth continued to be negative, the total profits continue to decline. Iron and steel enterprises in 2015 for the first time a loss, the total loss of 64 billion 534 million yuan, the loss was 50.5%, loss making enterprises accounted for production of steel member enterprises China iron and Steel Enterprises Association 46.9%. 2012-2015 years, the coal industry profits continued to decline. In 2012 15.6% decline in gross profit margin decline in 2015 expanded to 65%, the industry total profit of only 44 billion 80 million yuan.
In 2015, China’s above scale industrial enterprises total profit fell 2.3%. Among them, the total coal mining and washing industry profits fell 65%, ferrous metal mining industry decreased by 43.9%. China’s coal, iron and steel industry is in serious losses, the resulting debt default problem can not be ignored, capacity to delay.
In 2016, in this context, the promotion of “three to one drop fill” five priorities in our country, the state led to production tasks mainly concentrated in the steel and coal industry two. In 2016 to promote production of production policy, the coal industry profits rebounded quickly in the base level low, an increase of 156.9% in 2016 1-11 months. The steel industry is expected to profitability, industry profit of 36 billion yuan.
From the price, China’s industrial producer prices continued to decline since 2012, production lasted four and a half years of deflationary pressure. In recent years, steel prices continued to decline, by the end of 2015, Lange steel comprehensive price of 2120 yuan / ton, fell to historic lows. In 2016 to the production capacity and demand growth, steel prices rebounded, the end of December 2016 3720 yuan / ton, industry profitability.
2013-2015, along with the macroeconomic downturn, shrinking downstream demand and overcapacity, coal prices fell cliff style, the cost of coal enterprises into prices upside down, a large area of loss dilemma. At the end of 2015, coal prices dropped to the lowest level in history, for 371 yuan / ton. In 2015 the average price decline of about 30%, equivalent to the price level in 2005. In the capacity to promote policies to limit the output characteristics of the end of December 2016, Bohai thermal coal price of 593 yuan / ton, rose 59.4%.
Overall, the current price is rising demand and the policy of double superposition results, has the characteristics of restorative increases, but the price rise is not persistent, overcapacity in China remains a prominent problem. Thus, the industry profit rate, and the price in terms of capacity utilization, coal, steel and cement and other related industries in China are the capacity utilization rate is low, the current profit and price rise is the policy to stimulate demand and curb the supply of short-term results of common administrative limiting the role of the two aspects, is not sustainable. According to the above three aspects of capacity to work is far from complete.
2 policy trends indicate the overcapacity problem is still outstanding
In 2016 the State Council issued “on the steel industry to resolve overcapacity turnaround development views” clearly pointed out that from the beginning of 2016, with 5 years of time Yajian crude steel production capacity of 1-1.5 million tons, to make reasonable industry capacity utilization rate, improve the economic efficiency of enterprises, the market is expected to improve significantly. In 2016 the State Council issued “on the coal industry to resolve overcapacity turnaround development”, from the beginning of 2016, with 3-5 years time, production capacity of 5 tons, from 5 tons reduction restructuring; 3 years in principle for technological transformation project approval of new coal mine project, the capacity of the new nuclear capacity and increase the project, indeed the new coal mine will be reduction replacement. In 2016 the central economic work conference, the supply and demand of prominent structural contradictions, the supply side structural reforms still need to overcome difficulties, to still need to actively promote the production capacity.
