1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has been running steadily this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 29000 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 29200 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.69% and a year-on-year increase of 41.06%. On August 13th, the Business Society Bromine Index was 102.46, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 58.21% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 73.90% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
This week, the price of bromine has remained strong, with a reference price of 28000-31000 yuan/ton for spot bromine production in Shandong region. Due to weather and policy reasons, bromine companies are facing tight inventory, and downstream companies are mainly in urgent need. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have been rising, with an average market price of 2591 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2527.67 yuan/ton over the weekend. The price has increased by 1.42%, which is 95.37% higher than the same period last year. Downstream demand is still acceptable.
Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain strong in the near future, with upstream sulfur prices rising. Bromine prices are expected to improve this week, while downstream demand is expected to increase. Overall market activity is moderate. It is expected that bromine will continue to consolidate and operate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

Recently (8.1-8.11), the butadiene rubber market has been fluctuating and consolidating. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 11th, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 11900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50% from 11960 yuan/ton on the first day. The price of raw material butadiene has been adjusted narrowly, and the cost of butadiene rubber still has support; The expected start of production for butadiene rubber has slightly increased; The downstream tire production is basically stable, and there is a strong demand for support for butadiene rubber. As of August 11th, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were 11800 to 12200 yuan/ton.
Recently (8.1-8.11), the price of butadiene has fluctuated narrowly, and the cost of butadiene rubber still remains supported. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 11th, the price of butadiene was 9083 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37% from 9050 yuan/ton on the 1st. The high point during the cycle was 9100 yuan/ton, and the low point during the cycle was 8916 yuan/ton.
Recently (8.1-8.11), the domestic butadiene rubber plant has started operating at around 6.80%, and the supply of butadiene rubber is expected to increase slightly in the short term.
Demand side: Recently (8.1-8.11), the overall stability of downstream tire production has provided essential support for the butadiene rubber market. As of August 8th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has slightly increased to around 7.20%; The construction of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong Province has slightly increased to around 6.3%.
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the raw material butadiene market will consolidate narrowly, and the cost of butadiene rubber will continue to be supported; The downstream tire production is basically stable, and the demand side is just in need of support. Some devices are planned to restart this week, and the pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber has increased. However, with the arrival of the traditional peak season, it is expected that butadiene rubber may fluctuate and rise in the later period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 12866 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 12866/ton, which is stable.
The prices of domestic activated carbon manufacturers remained stable this week, with the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9000 to 13000 yuan/ton. Due to insufficient coconut supply in the Asian market and increasing demand, the demand for environmentally friendly materials in emerging markets has surged, resulting in high prices for coconut shell activated carbon.
Internationally, Southeast Asia, as the main source of coconut shells worldwide, will face multiple natural disasters in 2024. Thailand’s reduced production of fragrant coconut due to drought and pest infestations, coupled with rising transportation costs, have led to a surge in coconut shell purchase prices. The price of charred coconut shells in Southeast Asia, including taxes, has exceeded 8000 yuan/ton, exacerbating domestic production cost pressures. ‌‌
Prediction: The shortage of raw materials will result in stable transactions, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

The bidding price for hydrogen fluoride in August decreased by 100-200 yuan/ton compared to the previous month. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 7th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 10650 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.39% from the end of July.
Raw material side: The domestic fluorite price trend has slightly increased this week. As of August 7th, the benchmark price of fluorite in Shengyi Society was 3156.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.60% compared to the beginning of this month (3137.50 yuan/ton). The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has increased. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The rise in fluorite prices has put pressure on the cost of hydrofluoric acid, and there is still pressure for production enterprises to incur losses. The purchasing sentiment for high priced fluorite raw materials is relatively low, and it is expected that the hydrofluoric acid industry will continue to operate weakly and consolidate.
Demand side: The downstream refrigerant market has weak terminal demand, low stocking enthusiasm, and mainly purchases upstream products on demand, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The market trading atmosphere is cold, and some companies have reduced their raw material demand due to profit losses.
Market forecast: The price of raw material fluorite will rise, downstream terminal demand will be weak, supply and demand will not be supported by favorable factors, and market trading will be sluggish. It is expected that the anhydrous hydrogen fluoride market will continue to operate weakly and consolidate in the later stage. More attention should be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated and fell this week. From July 28th to August 4th, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 9466.67 yuan/ton to 9050 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 4.4% during the cycle. The domestic butadiene market has fluctuated downward in this cycle, and port inventories in East China have been running at a low level recently. However, domestic refineries are actively shipping, and overall supply is relatively sufficient. As prices continue to decline, downstream stocks are being replenished at low prices, and market trading conditions are still favorable, with overall demand still leaning towards rigid demand. Lacking substantial positive support, the overall price declined during the week.
Cost wise: As of August 1st, international crude oil futures closed down, with the settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States at $67.33 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October contract is $69.67 per barrel. The market is concerned that OPEC may increase oil production, coupled with US employment data dragging down the demand outlook.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 9200 yuan/ton, which will be lowered by 200 yuan/ton this week.
Demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 4th, the market situation of Shunding rubber in East China has been weakly consolidated. Both Tianjiao and Shunding rubber futures fell, with a small number of urgent inquiries from downstream tire factories, resulting in light market transactions and lower quotes from spot market merchants. At present, the mainstream prices in Daqing, Yangtze, and Qilu Shunding are 11850-12300 yuan/ton; Some private brands are priced around 11600 to 11900 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: The recent trend of crude oil is weak and volatile, with insufficient guidance for the butadiene market and minimal impact. This week’s trend is still influenced by supply and demand. Recently, some downstream units have restarted, and the supply side is expected to increase. From the perspective of demand side, the overall demand is relatively rigid, and the support on the demand side is limited. Overall, the supply and demand are weak, and it is expected that the butadiene market will mainly operate weakly in the short term.