According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the prices of industrial grade lithium carbonate and battery grade lithium carbonate have shown an upward trend in recent times. On April 11, 2024, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 108800 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.68% compared to the average price of 107000 yuan/ton on April 1. On April 11th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 116800 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69% compared to the average price of 116000 yuan/ton on April 1st.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the price of lithium carbonate is still in an upward range recently. In terms of supply, currently, smelting enterprises generally have a clear reluctance to sell individual orders, and there is no significant change in the sentiment of individual orders supporting prices. Most lithium salt enterprises have raised their prices. In addition, salt lake enterprises currently have low inventory levels, and the overall production recovery pace of lithium salt recycling enterprises is generally slower than that of raw material lithium salt enterprises. This makes the overall supply of spot mobile goods tend to be tight.

In terms of demand, during the Qingming holiday, the trading status of the spot market was basically stagnant, and downstream enterprises such as positive electrodes basically maintained their normal production rhythm by consuming existing inventory. After the end of the holiday, downstream market inquiries are more active, and companies are more likely to purchase essential goods to replenish inventory, which also drives the overall transaction price focus to gradually increase.

The lithium hydroxide market has been operating with narrow fluctuations. Since April, the atmosphere in the lithium hydroxide market has been somewhat stagnant, and holders are flexible in quoting, mostly relying on observation. At the raw material level, the price of spodumene concentrate has slightly increased, and the upstream lithium carbonate market is relatively strong, which has boosted the lithium hydroxide market. Terminal demand has rebounded, and downstream positive electrode enterprises mainly purchase in demand. The overall market inquiry atmosphere is active, and actual transactions are average, with a strong wait-and-see attitude.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate is in a continuous upward trend. Since April, the market price of lithium iron phosphate has remained high and the trend has continued to be strong. The cost side price of iron phosphate is strongly supported, and there is still support for lithium carbonate. Moreover, downstream demand continues to remain high, the procurement atmosphere is good, the focus of negotiations remains high, and there is no pressure on inventory. Currently, downstream enterprises mainly rely on rigid procurement, with a relatively high factory operating rate. Small and medium-sized enterprises mainly focus on production and sales.

In terms of futures, the price of lithium carbonate futures has entered a volatile pattern, with the current strong basis and the narrowing of the price difference between industrial and battery grade, reflecting the tense situation of the spot market. On April 11th, the opening price of the LC2407 main contract was 115600 yuan/ton, the closing price was 112500 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 115700 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 3.06%. The transaction volume was 195100 lots and the position was 180154 lots.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Carbonate, during the recent period of rising spot prices of lithium carbonate, the market has continued its strategy of purchasing on demand, resulting in an overall increase in the focus of transaction prices. However, some trading companies have also provided feedback that downstream companies have lower purchasing intentions and are more inclined to purchase low-priced quasi electric carbon and industrial carbon sources. This has also led to a gradually narrowing trend in the price difference between industrial grade lithium carbonate and battery grade lithium carbonate, and it is expected that the spot price of lithium carbonate will remain relatively strong in the short term.

Recently, the domestic glycerol market prices have remained stable. According to the monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of April 10th, the benchmark price of glycerol in Shengyishe was 4500.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.41% compared to the beginning of this month (4437.50 yuan/ton). At present, the reference price for industrial grade 99.5% glycerol in the domestic market is around 4400-4600 yuan/ton.

On the raw material side, after the Qingming Festival, the price of CBOT soybean futures in the external market rose moderately, with an estimated increase in Malay palm oil production and a decrease in futures prices. The boosting effect of the external futures market was limited, and the soybean oil palm oil market continued to decline. The demand for terminal catering is stable, with high inventories of soybean oil and palm oil. Multiple bearish factors have suppressed the weak spot market of soybean oil and palm oil. According to the monitoring of Business Society, the benchmark price of palm oil in Business Society is 8440.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.43% compared to the beginning of this month (8240.00 yuan/ton). The inventory of crude glycerol abroad is relatively low, and the quoted price is firm. Overall, the high support for raw material prices is relatively stable.

Downstream end: The market for epichlorohydrin is weak, with slow demand growth and no positive news at the moment.

Post forecast: According to the glycerol data analyst from Business Society, the raw material soybean oil palm oil is being suppressed by multiple negative factors, and the price trend is weak and downward. However, the inventory of crude glycerol in the external market is low, and the price is strong at a high level. Domestic refining enterprises are under pressure on procurement costs, and they are mostly wait-and-see. In addition, the downstream chlorine market is weak and demand is sluggish. In the near future, domestic glycerol prices may remain stable, and more information needs to be paid attention to market guidance.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of April 9, 2024, the reference market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was 7700 yuan/ton. Compared with March 1 (reference price of propylene glycol was 8100 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.94%.

Although “Golden March Silver April” has arrived, the market trend of propylene glycol in China still seems to be stuck in “winter”. Starting from early March, the domestic propylene glycol market has been weak and declining, with a cold trading atmosphere on the exchange and a continuous decline in market focus. In March, propylene glycol fell by 4.12%. Entering April, the decline in the propylene glycol market has not stopped, and there is insufficient support from positive market conditions. After the Qingming Festival, the focus of the propylene glycol market continues to move towards a low level. As of April 9th, the domestic propylene glycol market price reference is around 7600-7800 yuan/ton.

Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of demand: Entering March, downstream demand for propylene glycol is still slowly recovering, and the overall demand in the propylene glycol market has always performed poorly, making it difficult for the demand side to provide effective support to the propylene glycol market.

On the supply side, the overall downstream production of propylene glycol is relatively low, with limited transactions of new orders on the market. The supply and demand transmission is slow, and the pressure on the propylene glycol supply side increases. The support provided by the supply side for propylene glycol is also insufficient. Taking into account both supply and demand, the overall favorable support for the propylene glycol market is difficult to find, and the market situation is under pressure and is declining.

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere of propylene glycol on the market is light, and the mentality of the industry is average. There is a certain wait-and-see and worried sentiment in the market. The propylene glycol data analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mainly adjust in a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the hydrogen peroxide market has been weak and declining since April. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 946 yuan/ton. On April 8th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 906 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.23%.

Poor terminal demand, declining hydrogen peroxide market

Since April, the purchasing volume of hydrogen peroxide in the terminal printing paper industry has declined, and hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have resumed production rates. Supply is loose, and confidence in price support is insufficient. Hydrogen peroxide factory prices have mainly fallen. The average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong, Anhui, Hebei and other regions is 870-900 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 20-30 yuan/ton.

Chemical analysts from Business Society believe that in mid April, terminal demand for hydrogen peroxide remained flat, putting pressure on future market trends.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite continued to be weak this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 2150.00 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 2100.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.33% during the week.

In April, due to the continued weak prices of upstream raw materials, some enterprises have lowered the factory price of sodium metabisulfite again, driving the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite to continue to be weak. This week, the domestic industrial grade sodium metabisulfite market price range is 2000-2150 yuan/ton. The inventory of the enterprise is about 30%, and the enterprise mainly completes orders from old customers. (The above prices refer to the quotations from mainstream domestic enterprises, and some enterprises that have not been reported are not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

As of April 7th, domestic soda ash prices have been operating weakly, with an overall decline of 1.03%. Sulfur prices have slightly rebounded, with an overall increase of 2.80%. Overall, raw material costs are still at a low level, and the decline in soda ash prices has slowed down. Raw material costs are fluctuating forward, and the weak trend of sodium metabisulfite prices in the future is expected to stabilize.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that raw material costs are fluctuating at a low level, and downstream purchases and sales are cautious overall. In the short term, the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite is under pressure to recover.