Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise this week. The average price of acetic acid in eastern China was about 2716 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and it rose to about 2883 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 6.13% in the week. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2550-2650/ton; in Shandong is about 2800-3000 yuan/ton; in Hebei is about 2600-2650 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi is about 2280 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu is about 2850-2950 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang is about 3000-3100 yuan/ton; in South China, the quotation is about 2900-2950 yuan/ton, which is 47.65% lower than that in the same period last year.

II. Cause Analysis

Products: The overall start-up rate of acetic acid Market in East China is still low, spot supply continues to be tight, some devices will be restarted soon, supply-side gap will be further narrowed, acetic acid prices will gradually stabilize within a week; enterprises in North and Central China start normal work, low inventory, driven by the rise in acetic acid prices in East China, followed by a rise in the week. In terms of start-up, the overall start-up rate of the industry recovered slightly last week, with an overall rate of about 68%. Huayi Group’s Shanghai plant is expected to resume next week; Soap in Jiangsu Province has completed the restart; Dalian Hengli 350,000 tons/year plant is currently operating 60% with a daily output of about 600 tons; Henan Longyu plans to overhaul at the end of June.

Industry chain: upstream, domestic methanol market shocks and stabilises this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2198 yuan/ton, which rose 0.64% in the weekend, and the price fell 22.33% compared with the same period last year. The terminal demand of acetate and vinyl acetate industries is low, procurement is not good, overall negotiations are limited, short-term stability is the main factor; PTA spot market is affected by high raw materials and part. Installation overhaul effect, slightly increased in the week, but trade in the industry is still weak.

International: This week, the acetic acid Market in North America gradually stabilized, currently around 415 U.S. dollars per ton; the Asian acetic acid market continued to rise in the week, but the overall downstream demand remained weak, with the current quotation of 360-410 U.S. dollars per ton; and the European acetic acid market stabilized and moderately weakened this week, currently at about 520 U.S. dollars per ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, the shortage of spot supply in domestic acetic acid market is gradually compensated, and the production of acetic acid enterprises in eastern China is about to return to normal. Although the overall low stock level in the industry has some favorable support for the price of acetic acid, there is no obvious improvement in the downstream market demand and there is some resistance to the high price of acetic acid. The analysis of acetic acid data from business associations shows that the domestic acetic acid market will be stable and weak in the near future. 

According to the latest report released by Mjunction, an Indian industry research institute, India’s coal imports reached 20.72 million tons in April, up 13.4% from the same period last year.

According to Mjunction statistics, in April this year, India imported 352,000 tons of coke and 220,000 tons of coke. The import of non-coking coal was basically the same as before.

Industry insiders pointed out that India’s coal import trend in April was in line with expectations. At present, India’s coal-fired power plants have sufficient coal stocks, and coal import volume is expected to stabilize in the next few months.

On June 9, the fluorite commodity index was 104.61, unchanged from yesterday, down 17.95% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 112.58% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend is rising, the average domestic fluorite price is 2981.25 yuan/ton as of the 10th day. Recently, the domestic fluorite plant started normally, the mine and flotation plant in the field started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is slightly tight, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream is rising recently. For the fluorite market, the price of fluorite market is rising on demand. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream pick-up situation improved, resulting in rising market price trend. As of the 10th day, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2700-3000 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2800-3100 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2700-3100 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2800-3200 yuan/ton. The price trend of fluorite is rising.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in downstream fluorite is rising. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 1,1830 yuan/ton as of the 10th day. The price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, with the demand for fluorite weakening and the price fluctuation of fluorite running. Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price trend is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water out of the factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal and the price of fluorite is rising. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may rise slightly.

This week, the market of hydrogen peroxide declined mainly. At the beginning of the week, the average price of hydrogen peroxide was 1,287 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the average price of hydrogen peroxide was 1,272 yuan/ton. The price fell by 1.17%.

Starting in June, the rising hydrogen peroxide gradually regained its sanity and began to weaken downward trend. Lido’s atmosphere faded and hydrogen peroxide prices fell one after another. The mainstream quotation in Shandong dropped to 1120 yuan/ton, while some manufacturers quoted 1320 yuan/ton. There is no quotation for Xinhua parking overhaul in Hebei. Anhui mainstream offer 1300 yuan/ton, price is weak and stable. Domestic hydrogen peroxide market continues to operate in a weak position.

Business Club hydrogen peroxide analysts believe that hydrogen peroxide manufacturers for parking maintenance, the market supply is tight, hydrogen peroxide prices in the future are easy to rise and difficult to fall.

On June 5, the PX commodity index was 58.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.97% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 28.21% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 5th day. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started one line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant went into operation. Other units operated steadily for the time being. Because the new plant was put into operation, the domestic market for p-xylene was normally supplied. Benzene market price trend is temporarily stable. The start-up rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On June 4, the market price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 9 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 786-788 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 805-807 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is temporary stable.

On June 4, the price of WTI crude oil in July rose to 53.48 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.23 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil in August rose to 61.97 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.69 U.S. dollars. Crude oil price volatility, the price of downstream petrochemical products lost a certain cost support role, and the price of paraxylene Market has temporarily stabilized. Recently, the textile industry has been stabilizing, PTA price has slightly declined on the 5th day. The average price in East China is raised near 5500-5600 yuan/ton. By the 4th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 83.5%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 86%, and the downstream production and sales rate remains high. However, the PTA market price is slightly lower, and the price of PX market is expected to oscillate at a low level.