1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride was 2180.00 yuan / ton, down 7.23% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market was temporarily stable, with the potassium chloride commodity index at 69.21 on April 10.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers this week is temporarily stable: the weekly ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride is 2100 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the weekend distribution quotation of Anhui Badu potassium chloride is 2260 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. This week, the actual transaction in the potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds the demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of April, the overall trend of potassium chloride market or low consolidation dominated. The market of potassium chloride is faced with three major pressures, namely, large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. According to analysts of KCl in business association, the short-term market of KCl is dominated by low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

On April 14, international oil prices fell again, with WTI crude oil in the United States down $2.30 (- 10.26%) to 20.11 yuan / barrel. Brent crude fell $2.14 (- 6.74%) to $29.60 per barrel. The main reason is that OPEC + and other oil producing countries’ production reduction agreements disappointed the market, the share of production reduction is difficult to offset the decline of fuel demand caused by the new crown epidemic, and the U.S. crude oil inventory increased significantly than expected, which increased the market panic atmosphere.

Since the beginning of April, the market has experienced a sharp rebound in crude oil in the atmosphere of OPEC + production reduction expectations. On April 2, crude oil rose by 25%. However, with the agreement framework of production reduction reached at the ministerial video conference of OPEC and Russia, the oil price on that day experienced an intraday surge of 12%. After the results of production reduction came out, it fell by more than 9%. The market has expressed disappointment with OPEC + production reduction until On the evening of April 12, OPEC and other oil producing countries formally reached an agreement on production reduction. According to the agreement, the average daily production of OPEC and other oil producing countries will be reduced by 9.7 million barrels from May 1. The first round of production reduction will last for two months. Besides OPEC +, other oil producing countries led by the United States will jointly reduce production by 5 million barrels. This is also the largest production reduction agreement reached since the establishment of OPEC + mechanism, but it still fails to appease the market situation controlled by the epidemic Xu. Oil prices fell again on the 14th.

It can be seen that the market is still worried about the crude oil in the later period. From the perspective of the production reduction agreement of the global oil producing countries, this is also a loose agreement temporarily reached under various interests. From the time of production reduction, we can see the clue. The agreement takes effect on May 1, which means that the output of the oil producing countries in the next ten days in April is uncontrolled, and some oil producing countries are not excluded There will be a temporary increase in production, so oil prices may bear more pressure in the near future. During the effective period of the later agreement, the negative production reduction of some oil producing countries can not be excluded, which also lays a hidden worry for the supply risk of the future oil market.

According to the business association, at present, the demand side is still the root cause of controlling the crude oil market. The global epidemic has not been effectively controlled, and even some organizations have assessed that the decline of crude oil demand may reach 35 million barrels / day. From this data, the share of production reduction of the global oil producing countries is not worth mentioning. In addition, at present, the epidemic area is gradually spreading, especially the market worries that India will become a new outbreak area in the later period. At present, India has implemented restrictions. India’s crude oil demand in the Asia Pacific region is second only to China, and it is the third largest crude oil import country in the world. According to the agency’s calculation, India’s oil demand in April may be reduced by 3.1 million barrels / day, down by 70%. However, China’s data is better. With the resumption of production and the rapid recovery of demand, the data shows that China’s crude oil import in March increased by 4.5% year-on-year, but the inventory pressure of Chinese refineries is also increasing day by day, and the import increase in the later period may be limited. Overall, the risk of global crude oil demand in the later period will still increase.

In addition, the market inventory data also contributed to the decline of crude oil. The data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday showed that as of the week of April 10, crude oil inventory in the United States jumped 13.1 million barrels, analysts expected to increase 11.7 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventory increased 5.4 million barrels. In addition, affected by the collapse of demand and the surge of refined oil storage, the operating rate of refineries decreased, and the refinery refining volume decreased by 1.2 million barrels / day. It can be predicted that the increase of inventory will obviously bring about the rapid consumption of storage capacity. According to some analysis, the global crude oil storage capacity may be exhausted in the coming weeks, which is not a shadow catcher either. According to the report on the 13th, the main oil trade center in the Middle East has no space for storing more oil, so the port of Fujairah in the UAE has been closed. In the later stage, more ports will not be excluded because they cannot hold more crude oil. According to the business association, if the epidemic does not end in a short period of time, global crude oil producers may change from active production reduction to passive production reduction to achieve the rebalancing of the crude oil market, mainly due to the depletion of storage capacity. The short-term downside risk of oil price still exists, and oil price will continue to be under pressure due to the control of epidemic situation in the medium and long term.

1、 Price trend

Isopropanol prices rose this week, according to commodity data monitoring. At the beginning of the week, the average price of isopropanol in China was 10600 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 11666.67 yuan / ton. The price of isopropanol rose by 10.06% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Product: isopropanol market continued to rise this week. The price of isopropanol has been rising since March 13. At present, isopropanol in the U.S. continued to rise, while isopropanol in Europe ended stable and fell. From the perspective of China’s export price, the export price of Europe is expected to continue to rise. Up to now, the negotiation range of isopropanol in Shandong Province and Jiangsu Province is about 10000-11700 yuan / ton and 11700-12000 yuan / ton respectively. In terms of the current international situation, the demand for disinfectant and other resources in the European market will remain high.

Industry chain: the upstream acetone market price has risen significantly. At present, the quotation in East China is 4650 yuan / ton; the quotation in Shandong is 4550 yuan / ton; the quotation in surrounding areas of Yanshan is 4500 yuan / ton; the quotation in South China is 4800 yuan / ton. The market price of propylene in Shandong has been raised steadily. At present, the market negotiation range has risen to 5900-6000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the isopropanol analyst from the chemical branch of business society, from the current situation in Europe, a large amount of demand for isopropanol in the European market will continue for some time. In the near future, the supply of factories is in short supply, and traders are reluctant to sell. However, in the short term, the domestic price of isopropanol remained high, and the follow-up attention was focused on the change of news.

1、 Price trend of sodium pyrosulfite in China

According to the monitoring of the business association, the domestic sodium pyrosulfite price continued to run at the bottom this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 1676.67 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 1676.67 yuan / ton, with a rise or fall of 0.

2、 Market analysis

Products: in April, with the start-up of domestic production enterprises, the domestic sodium metabisulfite inventory continues to increase, while the downstream demand continues to be weak, and the upstream and downstream trade subjects have a strong wait-and-see attitude. In April, some enterprises once again slightly reduce the factory offer, and the market price of domestic industrial grade sodium metabisulfite is reduced to 1600-1750 yuan / ton. (the above prices refer to the foreign quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, some of which are temporarily out of their scope, and the prices are only for reference, not related to the final pricing of the manufacturer. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation).

Industrial chain: in April, domestic soda ash and sulfur prices are relatively stable, raw material costs remain low, downstream demand remains weak, and sodium metabisulfite prices are under pressure.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the market supply is strong and demand is weak, and the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to move forward at the bottom in the short term.

In March, affected by the irrational decline of international crude oil, the price of the gas market as a whole fell, and the market never recovered. In March, the decline of LPG was 26.85%, that of liquefied propane was 26.7%, and that of dimethyl ether was 14.87%. However, liquefied natural gas (LNG) was the only red spot in the collective decline of the gas market, with an overall increase of 7.42% in March.

After two consecutive months of decline in LNG market, it was finally clear that the downstream resumption rate was significantly increased in March, the demand for liquefied natural gas recovered, and the price rebounded. On the one hand, the opening of domestic transportation bottlenecks has cleared the obstacles for the LNG market, and the LNG shipment has gradually increased. What’s more, with most of the downstream manufacturers returning to work, the demand has increased, providing support for the price of liquefied natural gas, the price pushing psychology of the manufacturers is obvious, the domestic liquefied natural gas market continues to rise, and the rising trend starts to slow down in the middle of the year. In the middle and late ten days, urban pipeline gas replenishment continued to decrease, demand growth slowed down, LNG began to callback, prices fell, erasing some of the previous gains.

In the later stage, the Business Association believes that in April, the heating in the northern region began to end one after another. As the heating demand in the downstream of natural gas gradually decreased, China’s LNG market gradually entered the off-season. In addition, at present, the import gas has been making profits continuously, which has impacted the domestic LNG market. The pressure of liquid factory’s delivery is large, and the inventory is on the high side. It is expected that LNG will still have a downward trend in the short term.

 
In March, the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market was greatly affected by the crude oil slump, mainly following the decline. At the beginning of the month, the average price of the domestic liquefied gas market was 3700 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 2706.67 yuan / ton, with a drop of 26.85% in the price within the month, 32.28% lower than the same period last year. At the beginning of the month, although the CP price fell in March, it fell less than expected, which brought certain benefits to the market. Coupled with the rebound of international crude oil, downstream market access improved, manufacturers shipped smoothly, and prices rose slightly. But then crude oil plummeted, and the market was in a bad mood. The downstream markets withdrew one after another to wait and see. In the middle of the month, crude oil plummeted again, hitting the market obviously, manufacturers kept making profits, and the shipment situation slightly improved. Then, with the retaliatory rebound of crude oil and the growth of market demand, the LPG market ushered in the rising market again. However, the positive results are limited. At the end of the month, with the crude oil exploring again, and under the influence of the sharp fall of CP price expectation in April, liquefied gas turned back to the downward trend again. At present, although the terminal demand has improved, it has not fully recovered, and the contradiction between market supply and demand is still in progress. However, at present, liquefied gas has fallen to a relatively low level, and manufacturers have an obvious mentality of protecting the market. The trend in April may be expected to rise.

As a pure product, liquefied propane continued to decline in March. At the beginning of the month, the average price of propane market was 3717.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 2725 yuan / ton, with a drop of 26.7% in the month. The price was 35.08% lower than that of the same period last year. The main reason for the decline is due to the impact of crude oil, and the expectation of CP in April keeps falling, which continuously depresses the mentality of the industry. The later shipment situation of the manufacturer is light, and the price is constantly lowered to make profits. But during this period, the downstream continued to wait and see, with a more cautious attitude. At present, affected by seasonal factors, with the gradual warming of the weather, the propane market demand is expected to decrease. But at present, the price has been at a low level, and there is little room to fall. The propane market is expected to rise to a certain extent in April.

Dimethyl ether is a kind of coal chemical raw material, flammable gas, which is a new type of energy converted from coal. Now it is mostly used for mixing liquefied gas. In March, the market of dimethyl ether continued to bottom out, during which it rebounded twice, but the momentum was insufficient, and the overall market still fell. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic DME market was 3003.33 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 2556.67 yuan / ton, with a drop of 14.87% in the month, 24.36% lower than the same period last year. In March, the operating rate of dimethyl ether was about 10%, and the market trading atmosphere remained depressed, which was hard to change. The international crude oil fell sharply this month, which significantly depressed the liquefied gas market. Although the demand for civil gas increased this month, the range was relatively limited, mainly following the broad decline of crude oil. However, there is no difference in the price of gas ether, and the demand for dimethyl ether decreases. The market of cost methanol continued to decline in March. Affected by the emergency safety events, the downstream demand of domestic methanol spot market recovered slowly, especially the traditional downstream market. However, after the middle of March, the impact of the development of foreign public health events, the continuous drop of foreign financial market triggered the circuit breaker, the pressure of the surrounding environment, the wide drop of methanol, and many new lows in the year. Some regional production enterprises have touched the new low And production lines or losses. Affected by the weakness of civil gas and cost methanol, the market of dimethyl ether rebounded twice this month, and it was difficult to reverse the situation and continue the decline. It is expected that if the LPG market rises significantly in April, it will give a boost to the DME market.