On May 7, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 120.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 4.20% from 125.26 (2020-03-15), the highest point in the cycle, and up 55.10% from 77.37, the lowest point on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

On August 8, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market rose, with an average price of 2330 yuan / ton. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started normal operation of their units. In the near future, the on-site unit operation was stable, and the delivery market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers improved. The manufacturers reported that there was no inventory backlog in the near future, and the price of ammonium nitrate rose. Downstream on-demand procurement, coupled with the impact of environmental management and control, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started normal operation, and the market price trend rose. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi Province is 2200-2400 yuan / ton, that in Shandong Province is 2000-2400 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei Province is 2500-2700 yuan / ton. Affected by the improvement of goods supply, the downstream demand is improved, the demand for ammonium nitrate is increased, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is rising.

The price trend of upstream raw materials in domestic nitric acid market is declining, and the quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu Province is 1300 yuan / ton. The quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Anhui is about 1350 yuan / ton. Shandong manufacturers quoted 1700 yuan / ton or so, and the price trend declined. Generally speaking, the demand for nitro compound fertilizer is higher than before. As for the demand for ammonium nitrate, the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is rising. The market of domestic liquid ammonia in the upper reaches fluctuates at a high level, and the market of domestic liquid ammonia remains at a high level. Some enterprises in the northern region are on a temporary stable trend. The price of raw materials in the upper reaches is temporarily stable, which brings a certain positive support to the price of domestic ammonium nitrate, But in the near future, due to the improvement of downstream demand, the market of ammonium nitrate products is getting better, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is rising. Analysts of ammonium nitrate of business association think that the price of upstream raw material nitric acid market changes little in the near future, but the downstream demand has improved, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is expected to rise slightly in the later stage.

Hydrofluoric acid commodity index on May 5 was 87.66, unchanged from yesterday, 37.58% lower than the highest point in the cycle of 140.43 (2018-02-21), and 63.58% higher than the lowest point of 53.59 on November 30, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has declined significantly. Up to now, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 9130 yuan / ton, and the operation rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is more than 60%. Enterprises report that the current spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient. Due to the impact of public health events, the downstream demand is reduced, and the recent market of hydrofluoric acid in the field is poor. Due to the poor demand in the downstream, the market of hydrofluoric acid is poor The market price trend continued to decline. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is 7800-9000 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the north market is 8000-9000 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market continued to decline, and the supply of spot goods was sufficient, but the demand situation did not improve significantly, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid declined.

The upstream market price of fluorite has been greatly reduced. Recently, the fluorite manufacturers have started to increase, the supply of fluorite is sufficient, and the price of fluorite has gradually declined. As of the 6th day, the price of fluorite is 2583.33 yuan / ton. The decline of upstream raw material price has a certain negative impact on the hydrofluoric acid market, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market has declined due to the decline of raw material fluorite price. In recent years, the sales of the automobile industry has been in a downturn, and the trend of the downstream refrigerant market is poor. The demand for the refrigerant has been declining. The special events abroad are serious. The export of the refrigerant terminal is not smooth, and it is mainly supplied to the domestic market. However, the domestic air conditioning industry starts at a low level, and the demand for after-sales maintenance is weak. Overall, the domestic and foreign demand is not as expected. At present, the refrigerant R22 manufacturer’s load is reduced, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the price is under pressure due to the drag of demand. However, the situation of market price or not is obvious. The mainstream price of R22 in large domestic enterprises is 15000-17000 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market has declined, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises has remained at a low level. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is cold. In the near future, the procurement of downstream industry is not active, and the price drops slightly. The downstream demand is poor, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market continues to decline.

In addition to the recent impact on the export volume, the demand for upstream hydrofluoric acid market has declined. However, with sufficient supply of fluorite and poor demand for downstream, Chen Ling, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may continue to decline.

1、 Price trend

Today, the price of ethylene oxide is generally adjusted, rising 300 yuan / ton, and the adjusted price in the mainstream East China is 6300 yuan / ton. Compared with the price of 5800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, the price is increased by 500 yuan / ton, or 8.6%.

2、 Industrial chain:

Ethylene oxide was raised twice this month. It is reported that Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. was shut down due to accident, Wuhan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was shut down, Tianjin Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Tianjin Zhongsha Petrochemical Co., Ltd. were overhauled, and market resources were tightened. The upstream ethylene market continues to be low and bottoming out. The decline of ethylene price means that the profit of ethylene oxide increases in disguised form. The operating rate of downstream glycol has decreased, the price trend has been narrow and fluctuating. The single market has been affected by the mentality of buying up, and the market has been rising. However, in general, the basic support is still weak, especially the cost side. Under the high profit, the enterprise is actively changing production, which may have an impact on the fluctuation of supply and demand side in the future.

3、 Forecast:

Temporarily stable.

According to the monitoring of the business association, the coking coal market is dominated by weak and stable operation, and the average market price in North China is about 1411.67 yuan / ton. On April 27, coking coal commodity index was 104.18, flat with yesterday, down 14.28% from 121.53 (2019-03-12), the highest point in the cycle, and up 131.98% from 44.91, the lowest point on January 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

Product: the market of Pingdingshan coking coal is stable, and the mainstream price of the main coking coal market is about 1500 yuan / ton (including tax for car plate). It is expected that the price of the region will be stable in the later stage. Taian coking coal market is stable, and the main coking coal market quotation is about 1420 yuan / ton (ex factory tax included), and it is expected that in the later stage, the price of the region will be mainly stable. The price of coking coal in Luliang, Shanxi Province is temporarily stable, and the main coking coal market quotation is about 1350 yuan / ton. It is expected that the local price will be more consolidated in the later period. The coking coal market in Huaibei, Anhui Province is temporarily stable, and the main coking coal market quotation is about 1510 yuan / ton (including tax for car plate), and it is expected that it will run stably in the later stage. Affected by the decline in the price of imported coking coal, the sales pressure of domestic coal mines is relatively large, and it is expected that the long-term cooperative price of some large mines may be lowered.

Industry chain: at present, the market price of coke is temporarily stable, and the downstream steel plants mainly purchase on demand. At present, the supply of coke is stable and the sales situation is normal. Although the coking profit has picked up compared with the previous period, the coking coal purchasing at the raw material end is still cautious.

According to coking coal analysts of business association, although coking profit has rebounded compared with the previous period, coke enterprises have general enthusiasm for production under the low profit state, and they purchase more coking coal on demand at the raw material end, and some of them still have the willingness to press the price of coking coal. It is predicted that the coking coal price will be weak in the later period, and the demand of the downstream market will be considered.

1. Trade name: silicon metal (441#)

2. Latest price (April 27, 2020): 10816.67 yuan / ton

The price of 441 × silicon in each region is as follows:

The price range of metal silicon in Fujian is 10300-10500 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 10600-10700 yuan / ton, that in Kunming is 10600-10800 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai is 11300-11500 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin is 10800-11000 yuan / ton, that in Huangpu is 10800-10900 yuan / ton 。

3. Analysis points:

The price of silicon has been explored all the way. Some silicon factories have reduced production and guaranteed prices, and the supply of low-cost goods has decreased compared with the previous period. It is reported that last week Yunnan Nujiang silicon plant reduced its production load due to power plant maintenance, and the capacity of four local furnace opening plants was reduced by nearly half. Some of the downstream monthly procurement started, which to some extent boosted market confidence.

4. Future forecast: it is estimated that a small number of batches are still needed in the near future, and the short-term metal silicon maintenance and stable operation is mainly needed.