On June 2, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of major contracts at $36.81/barrel, up $1.37 or 3.86%. Brent crude oil futures market price rose, the settlement price of main contract was $39.57/barrel, up $1.25 or 3.26%, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil also reached their highs in nearly three months. It is mainly driven by the expected warming of OPEC + extended production reduction agreement and economic recovery sentiment in the United States and Europe.

Oil prices rose for four consecutive trading days as the OPEC + video conference held on June 4 drew near and the market released the expectation of crude oil producers to extend the production reduction agreement. It is widely believed that OPEC + is considering extending the implementation period of its 9.7 million B / D production reduction agreement to July or August at this week’s meeting. According to the previous agreement, the scale of production reduction from July to the end of this year will be reduced to 7.7 million barrels / day. Saudi Arabia has always advocated deep production reduction. Previously, Russia had an ambiguous attitude on this issue. Oil price was once under pressure. Now market people generally have optimistic expectations on the production reduction agreement, and oil price naturally rebounded continuously.

In addition, according to the news, the production reduction scale and intensity of OPEC + oil producing countries in May are still in line with the market expectation. In May, all 13 OPEC member countries implemented a production reduction of 5.84 million barrels per day, with an average daily output of 24.6 million barrels, the lowest since 2002. Among them, Saudi Arabia has undertaken the production reduction of 2.89 million barrels, accounting for nearly half of OPEC’s total production reduction share, reducing the daily output to 8.7 million barrels. It is worth mentioning that Russia’s performance is also remarkable. According to the data, Russia’s oil production in May was 9.388 million barrels / day, down 15.5% year-on-year and 17.2% month on month. Just two months ago, Russia’s crude oil production was at an all-time high, with 11.35 million barrels per day in April. The sharp reduction of oil production in oil producing countries has balanced the problem of excess supply, and the dilemma of shortage of storage capacity has gradually broken the ice, which plays a decisive role in restraining the continued decline of oil price.

Good news continues in the market. On June 2, the inventory data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) did not disappoint. The data showed that the crude oil inventory in the United States fell unexpectedly last week. U.S. crude oil inventories fell 483000 barrels in the week to May 29, after analysts had expected an increase of 3 million barrels. For the week ending May 29, crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, fell 2.2 million barrels, API said. The positive inventory data also helped the oil price rise.

The market demand is also slowly picking up. The blockade measures caused by the epidemic have been gradually cancelled in Europe and the United States. In addition, Europe and the United States have entered the summer driving season, which further promotes the market demand for crude oil. The slow recovery of demand is also an important factor supporting the oil price. According to the business community, although the continuous rebound of oil price is mainly due to the centralized release of the recent market good news, in which the market plays a major role in the optimistic expectation of OPEC + to extend the production reduction, and at the same time, the demand is also slowly picking up, but for the basic supply and demand of the crude oil market, it may take some time to return to the normal level before the outbreak, or even the duration will still be longer than In general, if the results of this week’s OPEC + video conference are as expected, the oil price may maintain an optimistic trend, but the increase may be subject to the early release of favorable expectations. In the medium and long term, the oil price market is generally relatively cautious.

1、 Price trend

The domestic BDO market continued to decline. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic BDO market price at the beginning of the week was 8700 yuan / ton, and the average domestic BDO market price at the end of the week was 8366 yuan / ton. The price fell 3.84% in the week, 9.46% month on month, 6.00% year-on-year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic BDO market continued to rock bottom. With the price of raw calcium carbide moving up significantly, the cost side support is obvious, BDO production profits are greatly squeezed, and the production enterprises have no intention to yield profits. From May 26 to 27, Mercer and Tunhe announced that BDO settled 8430 yuan / ton in East China and 8530 yuan / ton in South China in May, 8400 yuan / ton in East China and 8500 yuan / ton in South China in June; Henan energy and Shaanxi chemical settled 8250 yuan / ton in East China and 8350 yuan / ton in South China in May, 8200 yuan / ton in East China and 8300 yuan / ton in South China in June. Compared with the previous month, they all fell sharply, which made the air atmosphere more attractive to the industry. The downstream price is obviously depressed.

In terms of devices, the restart time of Dongyuan, Ronghe and Ronghe is uncertain this week; hecian plans to restart at the beginning of June; MEC’s load is 50%, and the whole line will be shut down for maintenance from June 3 to June 30; Tianye’s phase I 30000 ton device will be shut down for maintenance on May 18, and it is expected to restart in the middle of June, and the restart time of other devices will be determined; Tunhe’s phase I 50%, and phase II will be shut down; Xinye’s catalyst will be replaced in the evening of March 25 It is planned to restart at the end of June; Sinopec’s load is reduced to about 50%; black cat’s load is about 50%, and maintenance is planned in June; Kaixiang’s two units are in full load operation; Panjin Dalian’s maintenance plan in June; Guotai’s maintenance plan in early June at the end of May.

In terms of raw materials, methanol, the overall methanol market this week showed a downward trend, and the delivery atmosphere was general. In the first half of the week, the turnover was light, and in the second half of the week, the main olefin factories in Ningxia increased their efforts in the external procurement, while the inventory pressure of the factories in the north and south of Shaanxi was slightly relieved. At the beginning of the week, the delivery of goods in Guanzhong area was not good, the factory’s secondary adjustment quotation fell to 1400-1430 yuan / ton of ex warehouse spot exchange, the factory’s inventory was running at a high level, and the business owners held a bearish attitude towards this, and the trading atmosphere in the second half of the week was still stalemate.

Calcium carbide: in recent years, the domestic calcium carbide market is in short supply. Since May 10, the ex factory price in Wuhai has been increased by 300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream transaction price is 2600 yuan / ton. Driven by the rapid price increase, the early production of calcium carbide devices is planned to start or increase the load. At present, some calcium carbide furnaces are still in the opening stage, and there are commodity quantities put on the market in succession.

Downstream demand: PBT: normal operation of Kaixiang device; Meiyuan, Shandong weijiao; one line of Kanghui, followed by or reopened; Yizheng Chemical fiber load of about 60%; Wuxi Xingsheng load of 3-40%; Tunhe device current load of 50%; Changshu Changchun load of 50%. Meizhou Bay operates normally.

3、 Future forecast

Raw material calcium carbide rose sharply, BDO production profit changed from profit to loss, and production enterprises mostly held a mentality of stop and stabilize, so many main factories planned to stop maintenance in June, aiming to achieve the purpose of keeping the price. However, the demand side has not improved significantly, and the cost and inventory pressure are concerned, and the downstream industries maintain the rigid demand to bargain hunting. Although the on-site operating rate of BDO starts to decline next week, the early inventory is to be digested, and the shipment is still the current key work. BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will continue to decline next week, but there is limited space to focus on downstream construction and device maintenance.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the price of aniline remained stable this week. On May 29, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4400-4490 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 4600-4820 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and comment

Raw materials: the listing price of pure benzene on Sunday (May 31) is 3450-3850 yuan / ton (average price 3600 yuan / ton), up 4.05% from last week. This week, Sinopec increased the price of pure benzene by 150 yuan / ton to 3500 yuan / ton. Prices rose on Tuesday, supported by positive crude oil and external market conditions. At present, the price of pure benzene in the far month is rising, but the spot negotiation is general.

The price of nitric acid has been stable since May 7, and the production price in East China this week was 1433.33 yuan / ton.

Product: the aniline Market was stable again after the reduction of 200 yuan / ton of aniline in Shandong last Thursday. The price of aniline remained stable for a week, while the price of aniline remained weak.

3、 Future expectation

Raw materials: it is heard that the turnover of pure benzene is 3600 yuan / ton in May, 3680-3700 yuan / ton in June, 3760 yuan / ton in July and 3800 yuan / ton in August. The operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has increased, the pressure on supply and demand has increased, or the pure benzene market has been affected. In the long run, the market price of pure benzene will continue to rise, but there is still a possibility of oscillation in the short term.

Aniline profit margin still exists, downstream demand recovery is slow, and aniline is expected to maintain weak stability in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 grade I products was 4766 yuan / ton on May 25, and 4766 yuan / ton on May 29, with a stable price this week. On May 29, the commodity index of chlorinated paraffin was 70.97, which was the same as yesterday, down 35.15% from the highest point of 109.43 (2013-12-03), and up 11.15% from the lowest point of 63.85 on September 26, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-06-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: chlorinated paraffin market is stable this week. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Jiangsu Province is 4600-5100 yuan / ton, that of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Hebei Province is 3900-4500 yuan / ton, and that of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Henan Province is 4000-5300 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4300-5200 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 4800 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is 4800-5400 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 4500-5400 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4000-5000 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4500-5000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: there is no obvious fluctuation in the current raw material market. The price of wax in the upstream feed liquid remained stable, and the downstream purchased as required. The demand for liquid chlorine for raw materials weakened, and the prices in many regions remained stable, while in Shandong region, they were stable and moderate.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 21st week of 2020 (5.25-5.29), there are 26 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the chemical sector; the top three commodities are calcium carbide (7.39%), bisphenol A (6.99%) and ethylene (5.53%). There are 28 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are R134a (- 7.38%), acetic acid (- 5.49%) and propylene (- 4.60%). This week’s average was 0.18%.

3、 Future forecast

The chlorinated paraffin analyst of business association thinks that the current chlorinated paraffin market is not good, the transaction is general, the overall atmosphere is flat, and some manufacturers are flexible to adjust. It is expected that the market price of chlorinated paraffin will be stable in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, at the beginning of the month, the price of domestic first-class industrial potassium nitrate was 4325.00 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price of domestic first-class industrial potassium nitrate was 4262.50 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.54%. The lowest price was 4237.50 yuan / ton on May 22, and the current price was 1.45% lower than last year.

2、 Market analysis

In May, the domestic potassium nitrate first fell and then rose. Recently, the domestic potassium chloride was weak in consolidation. The inventory pressure was large, the port shipment speed continued to be slow, the downstream factory purchase was not active, the traders were eager to ship, the market real order transaction was general, and the potassium chloride price was weak in consolidation. The market of potassium nitrate is not well supported. As a whole, the operating rate of potassium nitrate manufacturers is at a low level, so the overall inventory of potassium nitrate is at a low level, and there is no sales pressure for the time being. The downstream purchase volume is on the low side for a small amount of replenishment, and there is basically no stock situation. The price of potassium nitrate keeps fluctuating and falling, and occasionally a small increase is also a flash in the pan. In May, the main domestic manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 4000-4400 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation is different according to the purchase situation.

3、 Future forecast

Potassium nitrate analysts of the business agency believe that: the domestic potassium fertilizer market has a large supply of goods, and there are still new ships arriving at the port after the import of potassium, the inventory is further increased, the overall transaction is not positive, and it is expected that the market situation of potassium nitrate in the short term will be dominated by a weak decline. The long-term market remains to be seen. (the above prices are provided by the major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analyst of the business association, for reference only. For more details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).