1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices rose this week. The average price of domestic isopropanol was 7066.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 7166.67 yuan / ton on Friday. The price increased by 1.42% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: comparison of price trend of acetone and isopropanol from November to January

This week, the price of isopropanol increased, the factories in Shandong were shut down, and the factories in South China were closed. The overall market confidence was good. Up to now, most of the quotations of isopropanol in Shandong are about 7100-7200 yuan / ton; Most of the quotation range of Jiangsu isopropanol is about 7300 yuan / ton; The quotation range of isopropanol in Zhejiang is around 7300 yuan / ton. Internationally, on January 4, the U.S. isopropanol market closed stable, while the European isopropanol market closed relatively stable.

In terms of raw acetone, the market price of acetone rose this week. According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the average price of acetone was 5412.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 5450 yuan / ton on Friday. The price increased by 0.69% during the week.

In terms of raw material propylene, the price of propylene (Shandong) increased significantly this week, and the manufacturer’s offer continued to rise. As of Friday, the propylene price in Shandong market was 7800-7850 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton from last weekend. The production of the enterprise is stable, the inventory is in the middle, and the delivery of goods remains stable. The price of propylene raw material rose strongly, the offer of propylene pushed up, and the downstream acceptance was acceptable.

3、 Future forecast

Isopropanol analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe that the market price of raw material acetone rises, propylene continues to rise, and the cost support is strong. The factories in Shandong are shut down, the factories in South China are closed, and the downstream factories purchase more on demand. Isopropanol still has little room to rise in the short term, and pay attention to the subsequent changes in isopropanol news.

On January 6, the rare earth index was 831 points, up 10 points from yesterday, down 16.90% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), and up 206.64% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

The trend of domestic rare earth index rose, the prices of some domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series rose, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide rose by 17500 yuan / ton to 885000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal rose by 15000 yuan / ton to 1085000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide rose by 895000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide rose by 35000 yuan / ton to 98000 yuan / ton, and the price of metal praseodymium rose by 10000 yuan / ton to 115000 yuan / ton, The price of neodymium metal increased by 15000 yuan / ton to 1185000 yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium oxide increased by 10000 yuan / ton to 2950000 yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy increased by 10000 yuan / ton to 2920000 yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium metal was 3.75 million yuan / ton. Some prices in the domestic light rare earth market increased. The recent procurement was general. The price of dysprosium in the domestic heavy rare earth market increased, and the price of terbium increased slightly, Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and Myanmar prohibits export. It is expected that the domestic rare earth market price will rise in the later stage.

Trade name: propylene oxide

Latest price (January 5): 10966.67 yuan / ton

On January 5, the market price of propylene oxide increased by 1.23% compared with the previous trading day and decreased by 24.89% compared with the price on December 1. At present, the price of raw propylene is rising, the cost support is rising, the downstream orders are released, the factory shipment is smooth, the inventory pressure is reduced, and the focus of market negotiation is higher.

It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may be strong.

Trade name: hydrochloric acid

Latest price (January 4): 324.00 yuan / ton

On January 4, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid increased slightly, up 6.00 yuan / ton, or 1.89%, compared with the quotation on December 31, and up 15.71% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The upstream liquid chlorine market is general, the support for hydrochloric acid is insufficient, the downstream ammonium chloride market is low, the polyaluminium chloride market rises slightly, and the enthusiasm for hydrochloric acid procurement is good.

Recently, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price may rise slightly, and the average quotation price is about 330 yuan / ton.

According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI at the beginning of the month was 19360 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 20180 yuan / ton, with an increase of 4.24% during the month and a year-on-year increase of 11.34%.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in December 2021, there were 35 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 19 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 18.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were chloroform (41.13%), lithium carbonate (37.11%) and dichloromethane (36.91%). A total of 62 commodities decreased month on month, and 40 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 38.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were melamine (- 40.08%), baking soda (- 29.05%) and butadiene (- 27.26%). The average rise and fall this month was – 2.38%.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of December 30:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

North China and Shandong 20200-20400 yuan / ton 20000 yuan / ton

East China 20200-20300 yuan / ton 20200 yuan / ton

South China 20200-20400 yuan / ton 20000-20200 yuan / ton

At the beginning of June, the domestic aggregate MDI market continued to decline, and the monthly listing prices of major manufacturers were successively announced, all of which were reduced; The weekly guideline price of Shanghai factory has also been reduced, but the supply of goods is scarce. Mainstream dealers offer according to the market and negotiate shipment; End customers in the distribution market are approaching the end of the year, focusing on just needed procurement; Recently, the epidemic situation has been repeated, and the downstream industries affected in some regions have been suspended.

In the middle of the month, the domestic aggregate MDI market continued to be depressed, and rebounded slightly in the middle and late period, but the overall atmosphere was depressed.

In late June, the domestic aggregate MDI market rebounded slowly, the spot was tight, and the price was high in the short term. Weekly quotation, factory prices are increased, limited supply; Production enterprises deliver goods evenly, with slow delivery, slow filling of goods in the trade market, small incoming volume near the end of the year, and tight market supply; In addition, dealers are worried about the high settlement price at the end of the month, and the quotation of mainstream dealers is higher.

At the end of the month, the domestic aggregate MDI market continued to pick up, the weekly price of the factory continued to rise, and the limited supply was maintained; Some suppliers’ factories deliver goods evenly, and the filling of spot goods source is slow; Dealers have different attitudes. Mainstream dealers offer prices to maintain stability and negotiate shipment.

In terms of raw materials, styrene crude oil fell sharply this month, driving the decline of pure benzene. Crude oil and styrene in the main downstream fell broadly, which stimulated the negative impact on pure benzene. The decline of styrene price, the decrease of downstream demand and the increase of spot and forward supply of pure benzene are the main factors driving the decline of pure benzene price.

The raw aniline Market stabilized first and then rose. The price at the beginning of the month was 9233 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 9913 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.37%.

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

Comparison chart of aniline (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

In terms of enterprises, Yantai Wanhua 1.1 million T / a plant operates normally; Ningbo Wanhua 1.5 million T / a plant phase I stopped on November 27 for 45 days; Phase II will stop on December 11 for 45 days. The 600000 T / a unit of Shanghai keschuang operates normally; The 380000 T / a unit of Shanghai Huntsman operates normally; Shanghai BASF 220000 T / a unit operates normally; Chongqing BASF has a negative phenomenon this week; There is a maintenance plan in January 2022, and the specific time is unknown at present. Dongcao Ruian 80000 T / a unit operates normally.

In the future, the long and short factors are intertwined, and the business community aggregates MDI. Analysts expect that the domestic aggregate MDI market is mainly sorted out.