Cobalt prices fell sharply in June
On June 12th, the cobalt price was 398200 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 6.00% compared to the cobalt price of 423600 yuan/ton on June 1st. In early June 2026, the domestic cobalt market experienced a significant sharp decline, with a daily drop of 8000 yuan/ton for electrolytic cobalt and a cumulative drop of 6% in cobalt prices in June. After the rapid decline in prices, most traders suspended their quotations. In terms of demand, the continuous decline in the market has suppressed downstream purchasing intentions. Alloy and magnetic material enterprises have chosen to temporarily suspend their purchases and maintain a wait-and-see attitude under the mentality of “buying up instead of buying down”. As a result, some funds were forced to stop losses and leave, further exacerbating the price drop.
Supply side: The price of cobalt raw materials has fallen
The prices of cobalt salts and cobalt raw materials slightly weakened in June. The quota approval for the first quarter of 2026 is still hindered by complex processes and slow progress, coupled with the tight local transportation capacity in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the low priority of cobalt raw material transportation. As a result, the arrival time of a large number of goods at the port continues to be delayed, and the arrival time of bulk goods at the port is delayed until the second to third quarters. The demand side support is weak, and the support for the rise in cobalt raw material prices is insufficient.
As the mid year point approaches, some companies are offering discounts to cope with performance and capital flow pressure, exacerbating market bearish sentiment. However, weak terminal orders and insufficient downstream stocking power have not led to substantial growth in demand orders due to price reductions. Top enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices and are unwilling to sell at low prices, forming a bottom support for prices. The overall downward trend of cobalt prices intensified in June, but the bottom support for cobalt prices still exists.
With the concentration of cobalt intermediate products accumulated in the early stage of the Democratic Republic of Congo, the supply and demand balance of cobalt raw materials will temporarily reverse to a state of accumulated inventory, and cobalt prices will face downward pressure. June is the last month of the second quarter, and the increase in the arrival of cobalt raw materials from the Democratic Republic of Congo has suppressed the decline in cobalt prices.
Demand side: Demand is under pressure and growth is slower than expected
In the consumer electronics field (high-end smartphones, laptops), due to high costs of key components, the expected annual shipment growth has been generally lowered, directly suppressing the demand for lithium cobalt oxide cathode materials.
The production and loading volume of ternary batteries have slowed down compared to the previous month, and the substitution effect of lithium iron phosphate continues to emerge. Downstream purchases are mainly for essential needs, and individual transactions are light. The demand for cobalt in ternary batteries is lower than expected.
The rapid development of low altitude economy industries represented by drones and eVTOLs has opened up an incremental market for high-end cobalt oxide. However, the growth of emerging markets is not good in 2026, and the support for cobalt prices is limited.
Market Overview and Future Outlook
Business Society data analysts believe that the current sharp drop in cobalt prices has caused market concerns, but the supply gap continues to exist in the second half of the year. The short-term correction in June is closer to a stage adjustment, and the downward space is limited. The approval of quotas in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the actual arrival time of intermediate goods provide low price support for cobalt prices; Whether the demand for consumer electronics and new energy vehicles during the peak season can rebound as scheduled will determine the high trend of cobalt prices; The release of new production capacity in Indonesia has eased the rise in cobalt prices, but it is difficult to change the trend of cobalt prices. Expected to see a slight fluctuation and decline in cobalt prices in the future.
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