At the beginning of June, 85% of the domestic formic acid market showed a sustained weakness and a downward trend, with prices fluctuating and falling overall. As of June 8th, the benchmark price of formic acid in Shengyi Society was 2400 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged on a month on month basis and decreased by 2% year-on-year. The formic acid market in early June can be divided into three clear stages, with the overall decline gradually increasing and worsening.
The first stage is the first round of correction on June 1st, when the mainstream average price of 85% formic acid was reported at 2550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2% from the previous day, opening a weak market for this week. The core cause of this round of decline is the concentration of production enterprises offering discounts and adjusting prices in the early stage, which has driven the overall market quotation downward. At the same time, the terminal demand side continues to be weak, and downstream enterprises are affected by the expected price decline, leading to a cautious purchasing attitude and weak market demand transactions, setting the tone for the weak market trend throughout the week.
The second stage is the sideways oscillation and dark decline accumulation phase from June 3rd to June 5th. On June 2nd, the formic acid market price remained unchanged from the previous trading day, at 2550 yuan/ton, which was a short-term consolidation and repair after a sharp decline in the previous period. There was no signal of market recovery, and the weak demand pattern did not improve. Downstream purchasing confidence was insufficient, and overall transaction volume continued to decline. On June 3rd, the market broke through the level again and fell downwards, with the mainstream average price falling to 2500 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 2%. The market further weakened, and manufacturers in the industry began to engage in covert competition to seize orders. The market pricing model began to change, generally implementing a case by case, single pricing model. From June 4th to 5th, the mainstream average price of formic acid remained stable at 2500 yuan/ton for two consecutive trading days. The market price seemed stable, but the actual transaction end of the market continued to weaken, with undercurrents surging. The competition among manufacturers in the industry has intensified, and most manufacturers have introduced low price preferential policies of varying degrees in order to compete for limited market orders. The widespread adoption of a flexible pricing model based on single negotiation has directly led to chaotic market transaction prices and obvious range differentiation. The surface level stable quotations cannot reflect the real weak market situation, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market continues to be sluggish.
The third stage is the deep decline phase on June 8th, which further intensified the weak market situation. On that day, the mainstream average price of 85% formic acid fell sharply to 2400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4% from the previous working day, setting a record for the largest single day decline of the week. At this stage, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market has completely intensified, with weak support for terminal demand and high pressure on production and shipment. Major manufacturers continue to increase their profit margins, and market transaction prices have become increasingly differentiated. The overall price dispersion characteristics are prominent, and the phenomenon of low prices and high volume in the industry has become normalized.
Future price forecast:
At present, the short-term moving average of formic acid is above the long-term moving average, indicating a downward trend in price.
The price position is at a low level, with limited room for decline.
Based on the core logic of the market, the current supply and demand of formic acid are weak, and the situation is difficult to change. It is expected to fluctuate downward in the short term, and specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.
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