According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 24th, the price of ethyl acetate was 5630.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.12% compared to the price of 5623.33 yuan/ton on January 20th, and a decrease of 2.03% compared to the beginning of the month. The inventory pressure on the supply side is not high, and downstream entry into the market follows up on demand. The market supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the ethyl acetate market is operating in a wait-and-see manner.

This week, the operating rate of domestic ethyl acetate plants has decreased, with no pressure on enterprise inventory, weak raw material prices as the main factor, inadequate cost support, weakened downstream production of ethyl acetate, and follow-up on demand before the holiday. Enterprise shipments are still acceptable, and the market price of ethyl acetate has stabilized.

In the future, the utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity is not high, and the market supply of goods remains stable. Downstream pre holiday stocking is coming to an end, and the market transaction atmosphere is weakening. In the short term, the price of ethyl acetate is stable and waiting for operation. Specific attention should be paid to changes in supplier equipment and downstream follow-up.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (1.20-1.24), with an average market price of 247920 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 247210 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.29%.

Tin prices have risen and fallen this week. Recently, the trading performance of the spot tin market has been relatively flat, with most trading companies’ transactions mainly scattered. Although some imported tin has arrived at the port, due to the large pre-sale quantity in the early stage, the spot resources of imported tin still appear tight. In addition, with the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, most trading companies’ inventory remains at a low level, and the market may face further tightening of spot resources in the future. Judging from the tight supply situation, there is still good support for tin prices.

Fundamentally, the import volume of tin ore has remained at a low level for several consecutive months. The prolonged shutdown in the Wa State region has had a significant impact that continues to ferment and become apparent. As a result, the processing cost of tin ore has fallen to a low point in recent years, and this trend is having a significant impact on the smelting end. The operating rate of refineries in Yunnan region has declined, and the year-on-year growth rate of refined tin production has also shown a downward trend.

On the supply and demand side, the new energy industry and the electronics industry have shown good recovery expectations. Especially prominent is the increasing demand for tin in the electric vehicle industry and renewable energy sector. These positive factors are expected to provide stable support for tin prices in the medium to long term.

Based on comprehensive analysis, in the short term, influenced by multiple factors such as low inventory levels and policy adjustments, market sentiment is gradually tending towards a cautious trend, and tin prices will continue to fluctuate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 23rd, the average selling price of PET is 6347 yuan/ton, with some price adjustments after an upward trend.

Overnight crude oil prices continue to decline, resulting in weak cost support for PET. In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, the terminal market is gradually entering a holiday mode and withdrawing from transactions, resulting in a generally low willingness of downstream enterprises to restock.

Taking into account these factors, Shengyi Society believes that the PET market price may show a weak and volatile trend in the short term, mainly fluctuating with changes in the cost side. However, the exact market trend still needs to be further observed in terms of the status of subsequent production facilities, actual demand, and the cost support effect brought about by changes in crude oil prices.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 10th, the price of 0 # zinc was 24626 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 6.31% from the zinc price of 25846 yuan/ton on January 1st.

This week’s market analysis

This week, the suspension of interest rate cuts and policy risks have put pressure on prices. At the same time, as the Spring Festival approaches and consumer seasonality weakens, the marginal pressure at both macro and micro levels has increased, leading to a decline in zinc prices.

Supply and demand side

The supply situation of raw material zinc concentrate has improved, and the focus of domestic and international processing fees has shifted upwards. Refinery raw material inventory has rebounded to conventional levels. As a result, the extent of profit loss has narrowed, and the supply of refined zinc continues to rebound month on month. However, due to the influence of the Spring Festival, there has not been a significant increase in volume yet. The zinc ingot import window has been closed for a long time, with only a small amount of supply flowing in, which has limited impact on the market.

Demand side

Terminal consumption is showing a trend of differentiation. The intensification of the trade in policy has provided support for automobile and home appliance consumption, leading to a surge in the wind and solar industry at the end of the year, while infrastructure consumption remains stable. However, there has been a seasonal decline in galvanized exports, and the real estate industry has not yet shown significant improvement. There is an expectation of seasonal decline in initial consumption, but the demand for stocking up before the Spring Festival is still strong, providing some support for the market.

comprehensive analysis

With the release of negative factors and the absence of significant supply side volume, seasonal accumulation is expected to be limited, and the downward space for zinc prices will also be limited.

Before the Spring Festival in January, the domestic ABS market in China showed a positive trend, with spot prices of various grades showing an upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 21st, the average price of ABS sample products was 11875 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of+0.32% compared to the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: Before the Spring Festival, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry decreased compared to the previous period, and the industry load level decreased by about 3% to 7% compared to the first half of the month. Mainly due to the decrease in load of the Tianjin Dagu plant. Recently, the average weekly production has decreased to around 120000 tons, and the inventory level of aggregation enterprises has been simultaneously lowered to 160000 tons. Although the overall pattern of abundant supply of goods remains unchanged, the pre-sales of petrochemical plants before the holiday have been basically completed, and the inventory pressure in the future market has decreased. Overall, the recent supply side has provided sufficient support for ABS spot prices.

Cost factor: Prior to the holiday, the trend of the upstream three materials of ABS showed a narrow consolidation, and the overall support for the cost side of ABS was still acceptable. The domestic acrylonitrile market has maintained a sideways trend recently. In the early stage of low load operation in the industry, it will take some time for supply to return, and the inventory position in the industry is low, resulting in strong prices. Downstream purchasing power has weakened before the holiday, but the overall market performance remains strong at a high level.

Recently, the butadiene market has also remained strong at a high level, and the available supply of goods in the spot market has remained relatively tight. Holders of goods have a strong mentality of raising prices. But with the continuous rise of spot prices in the early stage, the downstream high-level receiving ability gradually declines. At the same time, with the expectation of increased production capacity in the future, it is expected that butadiene may enter a weak consolidation market.

Styrene has recently risen and then leveled off. In late January, the return of styrene plants is common, and there is also a situation of accumulated cargo upon arrival at the port, leading to a relaxation of supply shortages. However, as upstream crude oil prices rise, the future market for styrene is bound to be boosted by raw materials such as pure benzene. Downstream demand remains stable before the holiday, with a focus on price consolidation.

In terms of demand, the export demand for some front-end household appliances in the terminal sector has been completely released, and downstream purchasing power has gradually weakened in the early stage. The terminal factories are gradually going on vacation, and the overall load position has fallen. Entering late January, as the Lunar New Year holiday approaches, some downstream enterprises are stimulated by the rising cost of ABS and are entering the market to purchase, with operations leaning towards pre holiday warehouse building. In addition, with the extension of the national subsidy policy for household appliances to stimulate the market, terminal products in the future may continue to receive policy support. Overall, the demand side has slightly improved its market support.

Future forecast

Before the Spring Festival holiday in January, the domestic ABS market saw an increase. The three upstream materials have leveled off, providing sufficient comprehensive support for the cost side of ABS. The load of ABS polymerization plant has fallen, and the pressure on the supply side has decreased. The demand side is mainly driven by rigid needs, with some warehouse building projects entering the market. Business analysts believe that the ABS market may enter a pre holiday period and stabilize.