According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of 50% potassium sulfate at the beginning of this week was 3683 yuan/ton, and the price of 50% potassium sulfate at the end of this week was 3466 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.88% in price.

The price of potassium sulfate in the domestic market declined, mainly because the price of raw potassium chloride declined, thus affecting the sales price of potassium sulfate. At present, the factory price of 50% potassium sulfate powder from Mannheim is mostly 3100-3200 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 52% of potassium sulfate powder is mostly 3200-3500 yuan/ton. The price in the southern market is still higher than that in the northern market, but in the case of obvious differences, some northern sources of goods are still supplied to the southern market.

The overall trend of domestic compound fertilizer factories is stable, with operating rates maintained at around 40%. In addition, with factories mainly producing high nitrogen fertilizers recently, the procurement of potassium fertilizer raw materials is not active, and the prices of raw materials are unstable. Therefore, procurement is mainly based on demand.

Forecast: The domestic potash fertilizer market is still in a weak downward state, without good support, and the market price is expected to be dominated by weak consolidation trend.

Price trend

Last week, there was a decline in the domestic PA6 market, and spot prices were generally reduced. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of May 16th, the average factory price of PA6 in China was 13950 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.18% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

It can be seen from the figure above that the market price of caprolactam fell slightly last week. The price of raw material pure benzene has been lowered, resulting in insufficient cost support. At present, caprolactam market supply is relatively stable, and supply and demand are relatively balanced. Downstream demand performance is insufficient, and procurement is more cautious, maintaining a wait-and-see attitude.

On the supply side:

Recently, the overall load of domestic PA6 production enterprises has remained relatively stable, operating in a narrow range of around 70%. The market supply is stable, there is an increase in inventory positions, and the supplier’s support for spot goods is average. The factory price pricing is narrow and loose.

In terms of demand: downstream, the weaving and spinning industries have a moderate load. The actual trading is generally concentrated in low-end spot goods. The overall atmosphere of stock preparation on the site is cautious, with buyers resisting high priced sources, and the overall demand for PA6 chips is average.

Future Market Forecast

In mid May, the PA6 market experienced a slight decline. The load of domestic polymerization plants is stable, and the supply remains sufficient. In terms of demand, it is average, and stocking tends towards low-priced sources. The price of caprolactam fell back, and the narrow range of PA6 cost end support weakened. Market long short game, it is expected that the PA6 market may be dominated by weak consolidation and operation in the short term.

In the first half of May, the market for chloroform significantly declined. According to data from Business Society, as of May 15th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2075 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 11.70% from 2350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material methanol has decreased, while the cost of trichloromethane has slightly decreased; The peak season for downstream refrigerants has come to an end, with weak demand for R22 and weak support for chloroform; Methane chloride production fluctuated slightly, while the pressure on the supply side of trichloromethane continued; Trichloromethane market is weak and declining.

In the first half of May, there was a slight fluctuation in the operation of methane chloride plants.

In the first half of May, the price of raw material methanol decreased, while the cost of dichloromethane slightly decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 15th, the spot price of methanol was 2325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.02% from 2423 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

After entering May, the refrigeration market entered the end of the traditional peak season. The parking and maintenance prices of some downstream refrigerant R22 enterprises are temporarily stable, and in addition, the total production quota of R22 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons in 2023. The support for trichloromethane will once again weaken after the peak season.

According to methane chloride data analysts from Business Society, although the demand for trichloromethane is currently weak and there is pressure on the supply side, it is expected that the trichloromethane market will be weak and consolidate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, at the beginning of the week, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 8520.00 yuan/ton. On the weekend, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 8480.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47%. The current price has decreased by 4.29% month on month, and the current price has decreased by 10.74% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

Potassium carbonate prices have fallen this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the recent decline in the potassium carbonate market has been the main trend, and the market has continued to decline slightly this week. The price of potassium chloride market continued to fall, the cost support was poor, the traders’ inventory was high, the transactions in the potassium carbonate market were light, and the market of potassium carbonate fell. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate in China this week is around 8200-8500 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, there has been insufficient demand in the international potassium chloride market, and prices have shown a downward trend. The domestic spot market for potassium chloride has average trading volume, and the price of potassium chloride has slightly fluctuated and decreased. It is expected that the potassium chloride market will consolidate at a high level in the future.

Recently, there has been a large supply of potassium chloride, and the market has been declining, with poor cost support. Downstream purchases remain in demand, and it is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly decline in the short term. The long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, on the 11th, the average spot market price of nickel was 178466.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.79% from the previous trading day and a year-on-year decrease of 17.76%.

Driven by CPI data and the US debt ceiling crisis, safe haven rose sharply, with overnight Lunni leading a decline of 4.32%. The taxation of nickel iron in the overseas markets of the Philippines and Indonesia has not yet been finally implemented. The domestic refined nickel production capacity continues to climb, but the driving force behind the narrowing of nickel electrowinning profits has weakened, and low pure nickel inventory may provide some support. In the downstream stainless steel field, steel mills resumed production more in April, but there was not much significant increase in demand, resulting in a slower pace of stainless steel inventory reduction. The improvement of nickel supply and demand structure is limited, and it is expected that nickel will mainly experience weak fluctuations.