Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the domestic PC market fell this week, and the spot prices of various brands were generally reduced. As of March 10, the reference offer of the sample PC enterprises of the Business Club was about 16333.33 yuan/ton, up – 0.81% from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: it can be seen from the above figure that the recent bisphenol A market is weak, phenol and acetone at the raw material end are strong, and the cost of downstream bisphenol A plants is increased. However, the downstream epoxy resin and other products continued to be sluggish, with insufficient orders, and the demand side was negative for the market. In addition, the supply of bisphenol A is sufficient, resulting in an increase in the contradiction between supply and demand. It is expected that bisphenol A will be weak in the short term.

On the supply side, the overall operating rate of domestic PC fell to about 69% this week, which was lower than that in the previous period but still at a high level year-on-year,. In addition, there has been a new capacity to release the negative market, and there will be a resumption of production line next week. On the whole, the supply side has insufficient support for the spot.

Demand: Recently, the downstream of PC just needs to maintain production, and the operators have a heavy wait-and-see attitude. At present, the starting position of the terminal enterprises is not high, and there is a certain stock of raw materials that needs to be digested, and the on-site delivery is weak. The traders’ mentality is weak, and the operation is biased to yield profits and take orders.

Aftermarket forecast

The PC market fell this week, and the upstream bisphenol A market weakened, weakening the support for PC costs. The load of domestic polymerization plants was reduced in a narrow range, but it was still at a high level. At the same time, the demand side failed to follow up, and the pressure on the supply side increased sharply. It is expected that the PC market will continue to weaken due to the supply and demand contradiction in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of the Business Agency, since March, the demand of terminal printing and paper industry has been supported by rigid demand, and the market of hydrogen peroxide has risen. On March 1, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 750 yuan/ton. On March 7, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 796 yuan/ton, up 6.22%.

The market of hydrogen peroxide rose as terminal demand increased

Since March, the demand of the terminal paper printing industry has increased, the quantity of hydrogen peroxide purchased is acceptable, the transaction of hydrogen peroxide market has improved, and hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have continuously raised the factory price of hydrogen peroxide, and the overall market has risen. The mainstream price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong is 750 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of hydrogen peroxide in Anhui is 850 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of hydrogen peroxide in Hangzhou is 1150 yuan/ton; The overall price rose by 50 yuan/ton.

Li Bing, an agricultural product analyst at the Business Society, believes that the demand of terminal printing and paper industry is supported, and the future market of hydrogen peroxide is expected to rise.

The spot tin market price (2.24-3.3) fell this week. The average price of the domestic market was 211410 yuan/ton at the end of last week, 198910 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 5.91%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. From the above figure, we can see that tin prices are mainly affected by macro factors after November 2022. Since February, the price has dropped.

In the futures market, the US dollar index rose sharply at the beginning of the week, and the metal market was generally under pressure. The US dollar index fluctuated in the middle of the week, and the market rose slightly. However, due to the negative economic data, the expectation of interest rate increase was strengthened, and the US dollar index strengthened again. At the end of the week, the London tin price fell again, and the overall trend of the week was weak.

The trend of the spot market this week is basically consistent with that of the Shanghai Tin Exchange, and the overall price decline is obvious. As the price fell below 200000 yuan this week, the smelter’s overall willingness to ship was low, and the attitude of price support was strong. The market’s intra-week trading was also slightly cold, and there was no willingness to receive goods accompanied by lower prices. On the supply side, the smelter has resumed its normal operation and the supply is relatively stable. In terms of demand, the downstream still has the intention of purchasing in demand after the holiday, and the market has some bargain-hunting and replenishment. The highlight of downstream demand in the near future is photovoltaic. With the increasingly obvious signs of market recovery, market participants are generally optimistic about the future. However, the current tin inventory is still on the high side, dragging down the tin price. The tin price is greatly affected by the macro economy. In the future, the tin market is expected to remain stable and weak. It is necessary to focus on the recovery of downstream demand and the impact of macro policies on the market mentality.

The base metal index stood at 1231 points on March 4, which was the same as yesterday, down 23.82% from the highest point of 1616 points in the cycle (2022-03-09), and up 91.74% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the price monitoring of the Business News Agency, there were 6 commodities in the non-ferrous sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 9th week of 2023 (2.27-3.3), with cobalt (1.57%), aluminum (1.29%) and copper (1.29%) among the top three commodities. There are 14 commodities with a month-on-month decline and 6 commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 26.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three products falling were dysprosium ferroalloy (- 8.99%), dysprosium oxide (- 8.29%) and praseodymium neodymium oxide (- 6.57%). This week’s average rise and fall was – 2.2%.

The price of aluminum fluoride is temporarily stable this week

According to the data of Business News Agency, as of March 3, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 10575 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of aluminum fluoride of 10575 yuan/ton on February 24. The cost fell, and the price of aluminum fluoride temporarily stabilized this week, but the downward pressure increased.

The price of raw materials fell this week

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of March 3, the price of fluorite was 2962.50 yuan/ton, down 2.87% from the price of 3050 yuan/ton on February 24; As of March 3, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9714.29 yuan/ton, down 1.16% from the price of 9828.57 yuan/ton on February 24. The price of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid fell in shock, the cost of aluminum fluoride fell, and the downward pressure on aluminum fluoride increased.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of the aluminum fluoride industry of the Business Agency believe that the prices of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid have fallen in shock this week, and the cost of aluminum fluoride raw materials has fallen; The industrial chain market is weak, and the demand for aluminum fluoride is still weak. In the future, the cost of aluminum fluoride will fall and the demand will be weak. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fall in a weak way in the future.

In February, the price of domestic polyester staple fiber decreased slightly. According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the average spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber was 7402 yuan/ton on February 28, down 3.27% from the price of 7652 at the beginning of the month, down 4.72% year on year. In the futures market, the staple fiber contract at the end of the month closed at 7212 (settlement price 7166), down 3.45% from the beginning of the month.

In February, the international crude oil price showed a narrow fluctuation trend, with a fall of 2.77% in the whole month. On February 28, the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures closed at US $76.83/barrel. The warm winter in the United States and Europe is the main reason for the decline of oil prices this month. In addition, with the strengthening of the US dollar, the decline of US stocks and the comments of hawkish Fed officials, the price of crude oil continued to be under pressure. This month, Russia announced that the production reduction decision was only for March, and the later production decision would depend on the situation. It is expected that Russia’s crude oil production will recover.

In February, the domestic PTA market showed a trend of first decline and then rise. As of February 28, the average market price in East China was 5597 yuan/ton, down 2.89% from the beginning of the month and 1.05% year on year. This month, PTA plant maintenance devices were restarted more frequently, and the supply side increased, and the industry started at more than 72%. At the beginning of the month, due to insufficient follow-up of terminal orders, the new PTA devices were put into production, and the price fell slightly. After that, PTA increased its maintenance due to low processing difference, and the downstream polyester was seasonally negative, the supply and demand pattern improved, and the price stopped falling and rebounded.

In February, the price of ethylene glycol fell first and then rose. According to the data of Business News Agency, the average price of domestic oil-based ethylene glycol on February 28 was 4308.33 yuan/ton, down 2.27% from the average market price of 4408.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In the second half of this month, the prices of upstream raw materials ethylene and naphtha were good, and the overall performance of coal prices was good. At present, the cost-side support was strong. However, the high inventory in the main port in the short term suppressed the amount of ethylene glycol.

In February, most of the cotton mills and weaving mills still digested the stock orders before the Spring Festival, and the domestic sales orders only slightly increased. Foreign trade was affected by high inventory, and the new orders were still not released smoothly. The orders of textile enterprises did not show the explosive growth expected by the market, and the new orders were issued limited, which restricted the enthusiasm of some manufacturers in production. The overall situation is still weak compared with the same period last year. As of February 27, the comprehensive operating rate of weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was more than 67%.

Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that the cost of staple fiber raw materials is still supported, and the downstream yarn mills and weaving mills are actively resuming work. With the arrival of the traditional consumption season, the demand for staple fiber may improve, and the market is expected to warm up, and the future market is cautiously optimistic. It is expected that the staple fiber price will oscillate with the cost in March. In the future, we will focus on the price trend of raw materials and the recovery of terminal orders.