1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 12580 yuan/ton on May 29, and 12185 yuan/ton on June 5. Caprolactam prices fell 3.14% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam market prices fell this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has been lowered, resulting in insufficient cost support. At present, the supply and demand of caprolactam market is balanced, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand. The market transaction is cautious.

The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. Downstream restocking has been completed recently, mainly due to inventory consumption, and spot prices have decreased. The price of pure benzene was 6572 yuan/ton on May 29th, and 6500 yuan/ton on June 5th, a decrease of 1.1% compared to last week. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene remained stable at 6500 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Caprolactam analysts from the business community believe that the price of raw material pure benzene has stabilized recently, and the cost side support is acceptable. The terminal demand is relatively flat, and the market supply and demand are in a game. It is expected that the caprolactam market price will stabilize in the short term, and the operation will be dominated.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has slightly decreased this week, with sulfuric acid prices dropping from 188.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 182.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 3.19%. Weekend prices fell by 82.96% year-on-year. On June 4th, the sulfuric acid commodity index stood at 28.33, unchanged from yesterday and reaching a historic low within the cycle, a decrease of 84.94% from the highest point of 188.07 on April 13, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream market slightly rises, while downstream procurement enthusiasm weakens

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have slightly decreased this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with sulfur prices rising from 780.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 810.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 3.85%. Over the weekend, prices fell 80.00% year-on-year, with a slight increase in upstream prices and good cost support. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market slightly declined, with market prices dropping from 10114.29 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9685.71 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 3.28%. Weekend prices fell by 16.93% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 16133.33 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 21.75% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly declined, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In mid to late June, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and declines. Although the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, cost support is good. However, the downstream titanium dioxide and hydrofluoric acid markets have slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid has weakened. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend has declined. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate and decline slightly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market is fluctuating and rising. From May 29 to June 2, the domestic aggregate MDI market price rose from 15400 yuan/ton to 16040 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 4.16%, a month on month increase of 1.52%, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.65%. The domestic aggregated MDI market atmosphere has significantly improved, with traders facing a tight supply of goods and prices gradually rising. Major production enterprises have announced the latest prices in June, boosting the market atmosphere. The downstream market is slowly following up, and the tracking atmosphere is still average. We continue to wait for digestion and follow-up.

On the supply side, the overall changes in the equipment are not significant.

In terms of cost, the raw material is pure benzene. The maintenance of individual supply units has recovered, the domestic supply has increased, and the maintenance of downstream styrene and phenol units has affected the consumption of pure benzene. The price of domestic pure benzene market is weak and volatile, and the overall demand atmosphere is weak. The downstream consumption of raw materials is dominated by inventory. On June 2nd, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Business Society was 6530.50 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market has rebounded slightly. The main reason is that downstream pickup has improved, and aniline factories have been smoothly restocking, driving prices up. On June 2nd, the benchmark price of aniline in Shangshang Society was 10912.50 yuan/ton. The cost of aggregating MDI is mixed.

On the demand side, the overall follow-up atmosphere in the downstream market is relatively cautious, with some stocking warehouses mainly consuming inventory. Part of the downstream demand is mainly for hard goods, and the increase in buying gas is relatively average. The execution of current contract orders is relatively stable, coupled with supplier control and shrinkage, downstream factories maintain a low inventory status. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is relatively short.

In the future market forecast, short-term traders are facing a tight supply of goods, which still provides some support to the market. Analysts from Business Society Aggregated MDI predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market will recover and fluctuate.

Aluminum prices fluctuated sideways in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 31, 2023, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 18290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.08% compared to the aluminum price of 18490 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (May 1).

In the long term, the current price is in the sideways range after a high price decline, and has been fluctuating in the range of 17500 to 19500 yuan/ton.

Overview of Fundamentals

1. The cost center of electrolytic aluminum smelting continues to move downwards. The decline in prices of pre baked anodes, alumina, and coal has weakened the cost support for aluminum prices/ P>

2. On the domestic demand side, the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has slightly declined, and it is expected that the operating rate will be difficult to improve as the industry’s off-season approaches.

On the domestic supply side, production capacity in various regions has continued to increase slightly, and the tense situation has improved. Inner Mongolia Baiyinhua Aluminum Industry plans to fully achieve production of 400000 tons in the second half of the year.

Future market forecast

In terms of inventory, the domestic social inventory continues to decline, and the profit level per ton of aluminum is currently acceptable. It is expected that the supply of manufacturers will not decrease in the future, but it is still necessary to continue to pay attention to the water and electricity supply situation in the southwest region. It is expected that aluminum prices will maintain the current broad volatility pattern in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3037 yuan/ton on May 1, 2687 yuan/ton on May 30, and the market price of monoammonium phosphate fell 11.52% this month.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of 64% of diammonium phosphate market was 3893 yuan/ton on May 1, and the average price of 64% of diammonium phosphate market was 3833 yuan/ton on May 30. The market price of diammonium phosphate fell 1.54% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The price of monoammonium phosphate has continued to decline this month. The price of raw material phosphate rock has decreased, and cost support is insufficient. The market demand is weak, and there is insufficient follow-up on new orders. A small amount of procurement is the main focus, and the focus of market transactions continues to shift downwards. As of May 30th, the factory quotation for 55 powdered ammonium in Henan region is about 2600 yuan/ton, the market quotation for 55 powdered ammonium in Hunan region is about 2560-2700 yuan/ton, and the market quotation for 55 powdered ammonium in Sichuan region is about 2550-2700 yuan/ton. Actual negotiations are the main focus.

The price of diammonium phosphate has decreased this month. The trend of raw material prices is poor, and cost support is weakening. The supply of corn fertilizer is relatively low, downstream demand is weak, and the market trading atmosphere is cold. The market has a strong mentality of buying up rather than buying down. As of May 30th, the 64% market price of diammonium in Heilongjiang region is around 4000-4050 yuan/ton, the 64% market price of diammonium in Shandong region is around 3700-3850 yuan/ton, and the 64% market price of diammonium in Hubei is 3450-3600 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

The raw material phosphate rock market has shown a weak downward trend in the overall domestic phosphate rock market this month. In early May, the downstream yellow phosphorus industry chain and terminal demand showed average performance. The overall downstream construction started at a low level, and the demand for raw materials weakened. From bottom to top, phosphorus ore support was loosened, and the overall focus of phosphorus ore was explored. In late May, the supply side of the phosphate rock field continued to be tight, and under relatively low pressure from the supply side, the overall market remained stable. Towards the end of the month, the overall shipment situation of phosphate ore is not good, and downstream demand is weak. The overall phosphate ore market continues to decline and operate in a weak manner,

The market for raw sulfur has fluctuated and increased in domestic sulfur prices this month. In mid to early May, the sulfur market in East China was relatively strong and consolidated. Due to the maintenance of some refinery equipment, the supply of goods has decreased, and manufacturers are actively shipping. The market mentality is bullish, coupled with better upstream and downstream procurement, the sulfur quotation continues to rise. In late May, downstream purchasing returned to rationality, and there was a need to follow up immediately after entering the market. Refinery shipments were mainly stable, while some enterprises had poor shipments, resulting in a slight decrease in sulfur prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to ammonium phosphate analysts from Business Society, the market for raw material phosphate rock has been weakening and declining recently, leading to a weakening of cost support for ammonium phosphate. Insufficient follow-up of terminal demand, resulting in continued sluggish market demand. Under the current negative market impact, it is expected that the ammonium phosphate market will continue to be weak and downward in the short term.