According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic heavy rare earth market prices have significantly declined. On January 29, the rare earth index was 398 points, a decrease of 60.48% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 46.86% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The price trend of domestic dysprosium oxide, dysprosium iron alloy, and metallic dysprosium has significantly declined. As of the 30th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.93 million yuan/ton, with a monthly price decline of 22.18%; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 1.925 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.06% in price; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.405 million yuan/ton, with a price decline of 24.25%; The domestic price of terbium series has declined, with the domestic price of terbium oxide at 5.7 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium at 7.1 million yuan/ton.

In January, the prices of heavy rare earths in the market fell. Recently, there have been limited transactions in the rare earths market, with few new orders and low purchasing willingness of enterprises. Some enterprises have recently lowered their negative guarantee prices, putting pressure on metal spot transactions. Downstream magnetic material enterprises have seen a decline in production, with only 30% of production. Some magnetic material enterprises have started to take a break, and overall production has declined to below 50%, mainly due to inventory consumption. In addition, the procurement of waste recycling is not active, and the overall market support is insufficient. The pessimistic sentiment has intensified, and the trend of the heavy rare earth market has significantly declined. The total control indicators for the third batch of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2023 are 15000 tons and 13850 tons, respectively. Generally, two batches of indicators are announced each year. The third batch of indicators in 2023 will increase mining volume, which is detrimental to the domestic rare earth market.

According to statistics, in December 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.172 million and 1.191 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 47.5% and 46.4%, and a market share of 37.7%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 9.587 million and 9.495 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 35.8% and 37.9%, and a market share of 31.6%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles still provides support for the rare earth market.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth exports in December were 3438.8 tons; The cumulative total export volume of rare earths from China from January to December was 52306.5 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%. The corresponding increase in export volume supported the prices of some products, but poor domestic demand led to a significant decline in the light rare earth market.

Market forecast: Recently, magnetic material companies have had poor purchasing and ordering sentiment, and there is a lack of new orders from holiday companies. It is expected that the prices of heavy rare earths in the market will mainly fluctuate at low levels in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, at the beginning of the month, the price of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was quoted at 5425.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was quoted at 5175.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.61%. The current price has dropped by 12.47% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

In January, the domestic potassium nitrate market declined. As can be seen from the above chart, the potassium nitrate market has been fluctuating and declining for two consecutive months, and the market has continued to decline this month. The raw material market has significantly declined, with poor cost support and sufficient supply of potassium nitrate. Prices have continued to follow the decline in costs. According to statistics from Business Society, mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers have recently quoted 4900-5000 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the prices may vary depending on the procurement situation.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall trend of potassium chloride market in January was downward. The downstream market demand is sluggish, and the pressure on potassium chloride to sell has increased. This week, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride has dropped significantly. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of potassium chloride has dropped from 3080 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2800 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 8.91%. The prices of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangge are temporarily stable, but new transactions are limited. The downstream market for potassium chloride continues to decline, with weakened downstream demand and a focus on essential procurement. Recently, international potassium fertilizer has also shown a weak trend. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

At present, the domestic potassium chloride market has slightly improved, and the potassium nitrate market is at a low level. Downstream pre holiday stocking is expected, and it is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will mainly rebound from the bottom in the short term. The long-term market still needs to wait and see.

This week, the domestic titanium tetrachloride market remained strong, with an average price of 10950.00 yuan/ton as of the weekend, unchanged from the same period last week.

Some enterprises produce and use more domestically, resulting in a decrease in export volume and insufficient inventory of bottled titanium tetrachloride. The high market price of raw materials and high slag still operates at a high level, resulting in significant cost pressure for production enterprises. Downstream procurement sentiment is insufficient, with a focus on essential procurement. The titanium tetrachloride market remains strong.

Business Society’s titanium tetrachloride analyst believes that there may be a possibility of slight adjustments in the titanium chloride market next Thursday due to insufficient inventory, but the overall change will not be too significant and will continue to be strong.

The average market price of antimony ingots in China in 2023 was 75000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 81250 yuan/ton at the end of the year, with an annual increase of 8.33%. The highest point of the year occurred on February 24th at 87250 yuan/ton, and the lowest point of the year occurred on July 20th at 76000 yuan/ton, with a maximum amplitude of 12.89%. The trend of antimony ingot market in 2022 can be basically divided into three stages: an upward period at the beginning of the year, a period of first falling and then rising in the middle of the year, and a period of year-end volatility.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has been on the rise for 7 months and on the decline for 5 months in 2023. The largest monthly increase occurred in February, with an increase of 8.39%. The largest monthly decline occurred in July, with a decrease of 7.08%.

The comparison chart of the annual trend of antimony ingots from 2018 to 2023 shows that the antimony ingot market has remained at a high level since reaching a high level in 2022, and has reached a historical high of 87250 yuan/ton in 2023.

In the first stage, the price increased by 16.33% from the beginning of the year to mid March

In January, the antimony ingot market continued its upward trend at the end of 2022. In the early Spring Festival, due to the impact of the holiday, some antimony ingot manufacturers and antimony oxide manufacturers gradually entered the holiday mode. The overall low production of factories led to a sustained tight supply in the market, and downstream pre holiday stocking intentions remained. The supply and demand game supported the upward trend of antimony prices. In February, most smelting enterprises have not yet resumed work, and the market is still in a tight supply pattern, with market quotations continuing to rise.

In the second stage, from mid March to early August, it fell by 13.18%

Before mid March, the market was consolidating at a high level of 87250 yuan/ton, and around the 15th, the market balance was disrupted, entering a downward channel. Firstly, the prices of antimony ingots in the European market have started to loosen, with continuous price declines, with a cumulative decrease of $650/ton within the month, which has a significant impact on the domestic market atmosphere. Low price sources have emerged in China, and there have been some market transactions, consolidating the high prices for more than a month and beginning to loosen. After entering March, antimony ingot manufacturers generally started operating normally, and the market supply resumed. Some manufacturers are considering returning funds and are actively reducing prices to sell. The subsequent market entered a stable period of about three months until early August.

The third stage saw a 7.26% increase from early August to the end of the year

Previously, under the long-term supply-demand game, downstream performance has been lukewarm, and the mentality of smelting enterprises to support prices has gradually loosened. The antimony ingot market has been continuously declining in price since June. After entering August, smelters took the lead in raising prices, and the antimony ingot market stopped falling. Subsequently, with the improvement of market sentiment and the achievement of some downstream essential transactions, market sentiment began to improve. Antimony ingot prices rebounded, and overseas prices rose, once again boosting domestic market confidence. However, there has been little change in domestic supply and demand compared to the previous period, and it still shows weak supply and demand, lacking actual demand support. The antimony ingot market continues to face significant upward resistance, but after a brief decline, it turns into a consolidation trend.

By observing the trends of European antimony ingots and domestic antimony ingots, we can intuitively find that there is a certain commonality in the annual trends of the two, and they affect each other. The trend of European antimony ingots can serve as a barometer for the domestic market. In the past two years, most of the nodes have been the first changes in European antimony ingot prices, and domestic prices have started to follow after a brief lag period. From the above chart, it can be seen that prices in Europe have slightly increased towards the end of the year, while the domestic market has also experienced an upward trend at the end of the year.

As the year-end approaches, there is a certain demand for stocking in the market. Starting from mid December, the transaction situation in the domestic market has improved to a certain extent, with some actual transactions. Driven by the improvement in transactions and the rise in overseas prices, the antimony ingot market has continued to rise. From the comparison chart of the antimony ingot market from 2021 to 2024, it is evident that there has been an upward trend in the antimony ingot market towards the end of the year in the past three years, with the main influencing factor being pre holiday stocking. With this round of stocking, the price of antimony ingots has exceeded the 90000 yuan mark, breaking a new historical high, and the price has been further rising in recent times under the boost of demand. In the future, Business Society predicts that antimony ingots will continue to maintain a slight upward trend in the short term and continue until the end of January. As antimony ingot manufacturers increase their production, this increase will gradually come to an end. As the subsequent supply becomes sufficient, there is a high probability of stable, moderate, and weak operation in the second quarter. After entering the third quarter, as the weather turns hot and foreign markets enter the summer break, there may be a downward trend in the market. Based on the market trends of the past three years and the operating status of smelters, it is expected that there will still be an upward trend in the fourth quarter.

Related information

The import and export situation of antimony

From the graph, it can be seen that the import situation of antimony ore in 2023 has partially improved compared to the previous two years, but the supply at the mining end is still in a tight state, and the situation of tight supply at the mining end will continue in the 24th year. The import quantity of antimony ore and its concentrate in China is significantly greater than the export quantity, and China currently has the world’s largest antimony related reserves and production. Since the end of the 20th century, China has become the world’s largest producer of antimony and its compounds.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of boric acid decreased in January. As of January 24th, the average price of boric acid in the domestic market was 7400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month, and decreased by 0.50% compared to the average market price of 7437.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. At present, the quotation range for domestic boric acid traders is between 6900-7700 yuan/ton (the actual transaction price for different brands, specifications, and products is mainly negotiated).

At present, the foreign quotation for imported goods is concentrated between 7500-7800 yuan/ton (the actual transaction price of different brands, specifications, and products is mainly negotiated). According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average market price of imported boric acid is 7737.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.43% compared to the average market price of 7850 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.