Price trend

Recently, the domestic POM market has seen a narrow rise, with some brand prices increasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 13th, the domestic POM mixed price was 12800 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+0.79 compared to the price level on May 1st.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

The domestic methanol market was weak and volatile this week. In terms of supply, global coal supply is stable, and the increase in domestic demand is not enough to support the rise of coal prices. In addition, with the rise in temperature, the civilian electricity load has fallen, and the consumption of power plants has contracted. Currently, the terminal is mainly supplemented by long-term cooperation, and the market demand for coal is relatively flat, with an overall wait-and-see sentiment. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors. The supply of goods continues to be abundant, while downstream demand is relatively average. In the state of supply-demand game, prices are mainly weak and consolidating, which loosens the support for the POM market.

In terms of supply:

Recently, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has significantly decreased, and the overall load has been reduced from 77% to 68%. Shenhua Ningmei and Xinjiang Guoye are undergoing maintenance, resulting in a contraction in supply. Meanwhile, after previous digestion, the inventory position of the aggregation plant has decreased. In addition, due to the high level of imported materials in the early stage, manufacturers have strong confidence and are attempting to increase pricing. Overall, the pressure on the supply side has eased.

In terms of demand:

Domestic POM downstream enterprises have limited post holiday changes, with approximately 60% or more. The stocking situation is average, and most of them just need to pick up the goods to maintain production. The main logic of the terminal factory is to maintain and digest inventory, with a cautious approach to picking up goods and a slower flow of goods within the site. The overall consumption level of the market still follows the previous weak trend, and overall, the demand side has poor support for the spot price of POM.

Future Market Forecast

This week, the POM market has shown a stable and upward trend. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has decreased, and there is an expectation of a contraction in future supply sources. The pressure on the supply side has been alleviated, and downstream consumption has remained weak, hindering the positive maintenance. It is expected that the future market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate.

The market for ortho xylene remained stable this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 16th, the price of ortho xylene was 8300 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of ortho xylene on May 1st, which was 8300 yuan/ton. The industrial chain support is limited, and the ortho xylene market remained stable this week.

The price of mixed xylene fell weakly, and the cost support for adjacent xylene was limited this week; The price of phthalic anhydride has rebounded and increased, with increased demand support for ortho xylene and increased cost and demand support. The price of ortho xylene has temporarily stabilized this week.

The price of raw material mixed with xylene has dropped

According to the mixed xylene commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of May 16th, the quoted price of mixed xylene was 7460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.86% from the price of mixed xylene on May 1st, which was 7680 yuan/ton. The high price of crude oil has fallen, and the cost of mixed xylene has decreased; Downstream enterprises are experiencing an increase in maintenance, resulting in weak demand for mixed xylene. Some mixed xylene equipment has maintenance plans, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decrease. Both supply and demand have decreased, and mixed xylene is under significant downward pressure.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market rebounds and rises

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products by Business Society, as of May 16th, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 7925 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.92% compared to the price of 7700 yuan/ton on May 10th; Compared to May 1st, the price of phthalic anhydride increased by 2.66% to 7720 yuan/ton. This week, the market for phthalic anhydride has rebounded. The cost of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has increased, sales are good, the supply of ortho phthalic anhydride is tight, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is strong. Downstream demand is strong, and they are cautious about high levels. It is expected that the market of phthalic anhydride will remain strong in the short term.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society’s neighboring xylene data, in terms of cost, the price of mixed xylene has slightly decreased, and the pressure of neighboring xylene cost decline still exists; In terms of supply and demand, the supply of ortho xylene has tightened and the demand has rebounded, providing greater support for the rise of ortho xylene. Overall, the decrease in costs has increased supply and demand support, and the support for the rise of the neighboring benzene market in the future has increased.

The price of isobutyraldehyde first fell and then rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 15th, the domestic quotation for isobutyraldehyde was 8050 yuan/ton, which decreased first and then increased compared to May 7th’s isobutyraldehyde price of 7975 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.94%; The price of isobutyraldehyde has increased by 2.88% compared to 7825 yuan/ton on May 11th; Compared to May 1st, the price of isobutyraldehyde increased by 5.23% to 7650 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the price of isobutyraldehyde rose sharply, but downstream demand support was limited, and the price of isobutyraldehyde fell from a high level. However, as the price of isobutyraldehyde fell, manufacturers’ willingness to ship decreased, the supply of isobutyraldehyde tightened, and the price of isobutyraldehyde rebounded and rose.

High consolidation of raw material propylene prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 15th, the price of propylene was quoted at 6818.60 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.65% compared to the volatile price of 6774.60 yuan/ton on May 7th; Compared to the quotation of 6800.60 yuan/ton on May 1st, it has slightly increased by 0.26%. Downstream, under cost pressure, procurement is cautious and the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high. Propylene enterprises generally sell their goods, and propylene prices remain stable at high levels. Cost support is strong, and the rise in isobutyraldehyde is strongly supported.

Downstream benefits

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 15th, the price of new pentanediol was quoted at 10100 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.34% compared to the price of 9966.67 yuan/ton quoted on May 6th. After the holiday, some companies offering new pentanediol have seen an increase in their prices. The support for the increase in new pentanediol has increased, and the new pentanediol market is operating stronger. The upward momentum for isobutyraldehyde has also increased.

Market Overview and Forecast

Business Society’s isobutyraldehyde industry analyst believes that in terms of cost, the high price of raw material propylene has stabilized, and the support for the rising cost of isobutyraldehyde still exists; In terms of supply and demand, the price of isobutyraldehyde first fell and then rose. The supply of isobutyraldehyde tightened, and the price of neopentyl glycol increased, providing strong support for the demand for isobutyraldehyde. In the future, cost support, tight supply and stable demand, and isobutyraldehyde enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. It is expected that isobutyraldehyde prices will fluctuate and rise in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of n-butanal slightly increased in mid May. As of May 14th, the price of n-butanal was 7986 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.93% compared to the beginning of the month at 7912 yuan/ton.

Upstream: Propylene upstream of butyraldehyde rose by 1.19% this month, from 6880 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6896 yuan/ton. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream polypropylene, the main force of propylene, is good. At the same time, international oil prices have risen. Supported by news and demand, the price of propylene has slightly increased, providing support for n-butanal.

In terms of demand, downstream n-butanol of n-butanal increased by 2.5% within the month, rising from 7833 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8029 yuan/ton. During the holiday period, the supply and demand of n-butanol were weak, and the overall market was operating quietly. After the holiday, some downstream small areas needed replenishment, and the focus of the n-butanol market slightly increased.

Future analysis: The two strong forces of supply and demand are driving the rise of n-butyraldehyde. In the short term, the domestic n-butyraldehyde market will mainly fluctuate, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in news on the supply and demand side.

This cycle (5.6-5.13) saw a narrow decline in the butyl acrylate market. As of May 13th, the benchmark price of butyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 9380.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.64% compared to the beginning of this month (9440.00 yuan/ton). The prices in the East China market are between 9250-9350 yuan/ton, the North China market is between 9350-9550 yuan/ton, and the South China market is between 9450-9650 yuan/ton. Market range consolidation, weak and stable quotes from mainstream production enterprises, market holders negotiate actual price reductions, and downstream buyers replenish positions as needed on dips.

Supply side:

In this cycle, the domestic market price of n-butanol remained stable with a strong trend. The ex factory price in Shandong was 7900-7950 yuan/ton, and the production of n-butanol in the market slightly declined. In addition, factory inventory remained low, leading to a tightening of spot supply in the market. The overall downstream production was stable, with primary demand procurement and active low price transactions in the market. It is expected that the domestic price of n-butanol will shift towards high-end operation next week.

The range of raw material acrylic acid market has been sorted and operated. As of May 13th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyishe was 6900.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.10% compared to the beginning of this month (6825.00 yuan/ton). The cost pressure on acrylic acid is still ongoing. Recently, production equipment has been shut down for maintenance, providing some support for the market. Some large factories have raised their listed prices, boosting bullish confidence among businesses. Holders are reluctant to sell at high prices, while downstream markets are cautious and cautious. In the short term, the market may fluctuate and consolidate.

Demand side:

The trading rate of adhesive tape master rolls in the market has slowed down compared to the previous period, and there has been a decrease in procurement in recent times. Some orders are now being accepted and processed. The order volume of tape master roll enterprises has declined, and the market performance is slightly lackluster. Tape master roll enterprises have accumulated inventory, which is sufficient and has a certain negative effect on prices.

The acrylic acid lotion market is facing a situation of insufficient demand for goods and continuous tightening of profit margin. The market continues to be stable for the time being. The industry lacks confidence in the future market. The downstream is obviously wait-and-see, cautious in entering the market, and the atmosphere of trading and investment in the market is light. It is expected that this situation will continue next week, and the market improvement will be limited.

Overall

In recent times, the market for butyl acrylate has mainly digested the increase, with mixed fluctuations in raw material prices, showing a trend of range consolidation. It is mainly for first-time purchases, and the trading volume has decreased compared to the previous period. From the perspective of market mentality, downstream segmented users are cautious and cautious. Business Society analysts predict that the price of butyl acrylate may temporarily stabilize and consolidate.