EU foreign ministers through a draft, decided to terminate the anti-dumping investigation procedures for Chinese polyvinyl alcohol  (PVA), the collection of temporary anti-dumping duties to be exempt.

The high cost of raw materials prices rose 30% to boost enterprise tire
Abstract: the Spring Festival return, tire factory price notice again all over the sky flying, why most prices for raw materials to tire pressure. According to the monitoring data zhuochuang, as of February 14, 2017 compared to the same period last year rose 97.78%, natural rubber, styrene butadiene butadiene rose 175.93%, rose 216.34%. Zhuochuang statistics, affected by this, since October 2016, currently part of tire enterprises has reached up to 30%. See details []

Xinjiang a chemical company of calcium carbide furnace explosion killed 2 people and injured 3 people

Abstract: according to the State Administration of production safety supervision website news, report the Safety Supervision Bureau of Xinjiang autonomous region, February 12th at 6:58 PM, the Xinjiang autonomous region of Changji, Xinjiang Yihua Chemical Industry Co. Ltd. carbide Division No. 5 calcium carbide furnace processing surface occurs when the space explosion, killing 2 people were killed and 3 people injured, 5 people were slightly injured, the accident the disposal site has ended. See details []

The domestic polyester plant changes before and after the Spring Festival 2017

Abstract: Recently, polyester plant shutdown gradually restart before the Spring Festival, according to a UN incomplete statistics, as of February 10th, polyester production capacity to restart this week in the vicinity of 2 million 705 thousand tons, accounting for about 50% of the capacity shut down before the Spring Festival, but after the Spring Festival is still the mainstream polyester plant downtime, so this week the polyester industry operating rate does not rise obviously. See details []

Local trends

The power battery industry by raw material prices and overcapacity plagued pains

Abstract: the recently released data show that in January 2017 the new energy passenger car sales of 5400, up sharply down 61%. national passenger car association secretary general Cui Dongshu believes that in January the new energy car sales dropped, and before and after new year’s day before the introduction of the new deal subsidy, the promotion of new energy vehicles directory for retrial. See details []

Downstream of the slow recovery of methanol spot thinly traded external disk differences increase

Abstract: after the Spring Festival, the domestic demand slow recovery, mainland methanol prices decline, while port prices rising again, external disk differences increase. As of yesterday, the east port of methanol prices in 3200 – 3300 yuan / ton, the price of methanol in Northwest 2230 – 2250 yuan / ton, price continues to rise, in 970 – 1050 yuan / ton. See details []

Recently, before the Spring Festival downtime polyester plant gradually restart, according to a UN incomplete statistics, as of February 10th, this week to restart the PET plant capacity in the vicinity of 2 million 705 thousand tons, accounting for about 50% of the capacity shut down before the Spring Festival, but after the Spring Festival is still the mainstream polyester factory overhaul, so this week the polyester industry operating rate rise is not obvious.

After the first week, the raw PTA trend is stronger, the cost of supporting strong, polyester factories have increased shipments, stimulate the downstream amount of stocking, polyester market rise significantly. This week, PTA material within a narrow range, the other raw material of ethylene glycol continued to decline, the cost of face of bad market, polyester factories and more stable price shipments, polyester market sales dropped, to discuss the focus gradually stabilize, smoothly also ushered in a small climax to restart the device after the spring festival.

According to incomplete statistics, as of February 10th, involving a total of 2 million 705 thousand tons of polyester device restart (mainly involving the polyester filament and polyester staple fiber), while 1 million 300 thousand tons of polyester unit overhaul, so this week the polyester industry operating rate rose slightly to around 73.8%. Next week, is expected to have 2 million 700 thousand tons of polyester plant near or will continue to restart, then the polyester industry operating rate is expected to reach around 78%.

from capacity utilization, industry profits and prices, China’s iron and steel, cement, coal and nonferrous metal industry overcapacity situation still exists; from the industrial cycle perspective, China’s current capacity in the contraction phase. From the demand side, industry investment demand will be suppressed; from the supply side, industrial production growth will slow; from the price side, the industrial field will relieve the pressure of deflation.

China’s coal, steel and other commodity prices last year, this is the comprehensive effect of demand in some industries and low price rise, limited production base, and other factors are expected results. In 2017, the demand side of the steel, coal, nonferrous metals, cement and other industrial prices do not support the formation of. There is no obvious shrinkage on the supply side of the case, the price of industrial products based on the current price level, will maintain the operation situation of a steady decrease slightly.

The overall capacity of our country is still excess

The 1 major economic indicators showed the presence of overcapacity in China

Existing research results, determine the excess capacity from the capacity utilization, industry profits and price indicators in three areas of comprehensive judgment.

From the capacity utilization rate, by the end of 2015, China’s coal, crude steel and cement capacity utilization rates were 64.9%, 67.2% and 67%. 10 at the end of 2016 has been basically completed the coal and steel industry two annual capacity to task. In 2016, the coal industry to the production capacity of 2.9 tons, 2.5 tons compared with the beginning of the development of the target exceeded 16%; iron and steel industry to the production capacity of 65 million tons, compared with the beginning of the development of 45 million tons target exceeded 44.4%. At present, the two industry capacity utilization rate is still less than 70%.

According to the United States and other countries experience, with capacity utilization as an index to evaluate whether the excess capacity of the normal value of 79%-83%. China’s steel industry “13th Five-Year” plan proposed 80% reasonable capacity utilization. In view of this, from the current data, China’s production capacity utilization rate was significantly lower.

Profits from the industry perspective, since 2012, the steel industry profit growth continued to be negative, the total profits continue to decline. Iron and steel enterprises in 2015 for the first time a loss, the total loss of 64 billion 534 million yuan, the loss was 50.5%, loss making enterprises accounted for production of steel member enterprises China iron and Steel Enterprises Association 46.9%. 2012-2015 years, the coal industry profits continued to decline. In 2012 15.6% decline in gross profit margin decline in 2015 expanded to 65%, the industry total profit of only 44 billion 80 million yuan.

In 2015, China’s above scale industrial enterprises total profit fell 2.3%. Among them, the total coal mining and washing industry profits fell 65%, ferrous metal mining industry decreased by 43.9%. China’s coal, iron and steel industry is in serious losses, the resulting debt default problem can not be ignored, capacity to delay.

In 2016, in this context, the promotion of “three to one drop fill” five priorities in our country, the state led to production tasks mainly concentrated in the steel and coal industry two. In 2016 to promote production of production policy, the coal industry profits rebounded quickly in the base level low, an increase of 156.9% in 2016 1-11 months. The steel industry is expected to profitability, industry profit of 36 billion yuan.

From the price, China’s industrial producer prices continued to decline since 2012, production lasted four and a half years of deflationary pressure. In recent years, steel prices continued to decline, by the end of 2015, Lange steel comprehensive price of 2120 yuan / ton, fell to historic lows. In 2016 to the production capacity and demand growth, steel prices rebounded, the end of December 2016 3720 yuan / ton, industry profitability.

2013-2015, along with the macroeconomic downturn, shrinking downstream demand and overcapacity, coal prices fell cliff style, the cost of coal enterprises into prices upside down, a large area of loss dilemma. At the end of 2015, coal prices dropped to the lowest level in history, for 371 yuan / ton. In 2015 the average price decline of about 30%, equivalent to the price level in 2005. In the capacity to promote policies to limit the output characteristics of the end of December 2016, Bohai thermal coal price of 593 yuan / ton, rose 59.4%.

Overall, the current price is rising demand and the policy of double superposition results, has the characteristics of restorative increases, but the price rise is not persistent, overcapacity in China remains a prominent problem. Thus, the industry profit rate, and the price in terms of capacity utilization, coal, steel and cement and other related industries in China are the capacity utilization rate is low, the current profit and price rise is the policy to stimulate demand and curb the supply of short-term results of common administrative limiting the role of the two aspects, is not sustainable. According to the above three aspects of capacity to work is far from complete.

2 policy trends indicate the overcapacity problem is still outstanding

In 2016 the State Council issued “on the steel industry to resolve overcapacity turnaround development views” clearly pointed out that from the beginning of 2016, with 5 years of time Yajian crude steel production capacity of 1-1.5 million tons, to make reasonable industry capacity utilization rate, improve the economic efficiency of enterprises, the market is expected to improve significantly. In 2016 the State Council issued “on the coal industry to resolve overcapacity turnaround development”, from the beginning of 2016, with 3-5 years time, production capacity of 5 tons, from 5 tons reduction restructuring; 3 years in principle for technological transformation project approval of new coal mine project, the capacity of the new nuclear capacity and increase the project, indeed the new coal mine will be reduction replacement. In 2016 the central economic work conference, the supply and demand of prominent structural contradictions, the supply side structural reforms still need to overcome difficulties, to still need to actively promote the production capacity.

finance Spring Festival return, Ningbo two glycol market pushed up weak trading stalemate. Sporadic negotiations in 7060-7070 yuan / ton; and the Southern China market trading intention is not strong, the market mainstream quotation co..

Overview two glycol market of some areas in China in February 14th:

In the normal operation of oil company, Fushun Petrochemical 60 thousand tons / year ethylene glycol unit prices stable, the current local implementation of 8000 yuan / ton factory.

Jilin petrochemical ethylene glycol prices stable, the current local implementation of 8000 yuan / ton.

East China unsaturated resin market hold wait-and-see operation, resin manufacturers offer both keep steady, normal operating device, according to the need to take the goods, pay careful attention to raw material prices and downstream demand recovery. The current market mainstream tax reference price: Shandong DC191#9400-9600 yuan / ton 191#10300-10500196#10600-10800 yuan / ton. Changzhou DC191#9500-9700 yuan / ton 196#11000-11200 yuan / ton.

East China two glycol market has stabilized, sporadic negotiations in 7050-7070 yuan / ton, the intention of selling offer in 7080-7100 yuan / ton, electronic recovery and related products to stabilize the market atmosphere was stable.

Southern China two glycol market steady, discuss the market atmosphere light, sporadic offer in 7200-7250 yuan / ton tank near the factory inquiry scarce, the downstream plant is still in a slow recovery, when the normal operation of the Mediterranean oil Shell B two device.

Market summary: the recent trend of resin material shock callback, after the Spring Festival opened not last because, to demand slow recovery, volume, market performance is not sufficient, in a strong product down to two DEG, the price will also be affected.