First, the price trend

Business community: maleic anhydride market this week, deep down no bottom (8.14-8.18)

This week, the average price of maleic anhydride offer is 8414.29 yuan / ton (both tax), down -4.69%, while August 1 has fallen as much as -8.64%.

Second, the market analysis

Products: Into August, the domestic maleic anhydride market opened a sharp decline in the model to Shandong, for example, August 1, solid anhydride is ex-factory price to 8400 yuan / ton, as of the report of anhydride exports to 7500 yuan / ton, half of the time Maleic anhydride prices fell nearly a thousand dollars, while the liquid anhydride is more concentrated because of the supply, more than a solid anhydride.

Industrial chain: the domestic factory is relatively stable operation, the current supply of only benzene to maintain the low operation, the market liquidity is still difficult to improve performance, and the price close to the cost line and the bottom of the operation, so that the factory kept very willing, the decline has slowed. However, the supply of butane method is relatively concentrated, although the Dongying Qi, Xinjiang Jinyuan device parking, but Shandong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang manufacturers operating stable, and early parking has been overhauled, so recently heard of new maintenance plans, especially liquid anhydride supply Supply is abundant, fear of the price is still a certain pressure to suppress the market has not yet clearly bottomed out the signal.

The same time as
In addition, the demand side is also a major factor restricting traders and downstream operations. Has been running to the end of August, although the traditional high season gold nine silver ten, some chemical products will appear a new round of rising prices, but for maleic anhydride, the downstream resin factory since the first half since the environmental factors suppressed significantly, operating rate continued to maintain Low load, Shandong, North China, and Changzhou, Jiangsu Province, security, environmental factors are more important, so the demand is difficult to upgrade short. Especially in North China is facing the upcoming nineteenth, environmental factors for the resin is still more serious, so the demand is difficult to upgrade under the fear of continue to control maleic anhydride plant and traders operating.

Third, the market outlook forecast

Chen Lin said: Overall, the domestic supply and demand of maleic anhydride is still an imbalance, although the supply of local supply is limited, but the overall supply and demand point of view, for the maleic anhydride price index is still weak, Even if the market stabilized, if the supply side no significant changes in the price rebound also has resistance. Short-term domestic maleic anhydride market vulnerable, there is still down risk.

Environmental protection supervision of a wave of ups and downs, August 7 afternoon, the central environmental protection inspectors stationed in Sichuan Province, which opened the fourth round of the central environmental protection inspectors prelude. This time there will be Jilin, Zhejiang, Shandong, Hainan, Sichuan, Tibet, Qinghai, Xinjiang (including Corps) 8 places in the 7 to 15 days of the week, one after another ushered in the central inspection team stationed, Month, and by the end of September, that is, the end of the fourth batch of central environmental protection inspectors stationed at the end of the central level of environmental inspectors will also be completed in 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) inspectors full coverage.

In addition to the central environmental protection supervision, the Ministry of Environmental Protection and the local environmental protection bureau as the main environmental protection special inspection is also carried out in the same period, the central environmental protection supervision and environmental protection department to form a complementary inspection. Including the first quarter of 2017 air quality special inspection, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the surrounding areas to strengthen supervision and control of air pollution, cement glass industry to eliminate backward production capacity and other special inspection. The industry believes that the strict supervision of environmental protection will have a two-phase impact, the first stage shut down the limited production, the main impact of steel, electrolytic aluminum, chemicals, cement, coal, glass and other industries; the second stage of discharge, Industry for the field of air, clean energy, water treatment, solid waste areas and monitoring areas.

On the domestic protopine market, by the direct impact of environmental protection, pre-Shandong due to environmental impact, most of the alkali plant manufacturers parking transformation, and Inner Mongolia region due to environmental impact, some small enterprises have been discontinued or cut production, and equipment maintenance Enterprises are more, the market supply substantially reduced, seeking more than for the phenomenon more and more obvious, resulting in the price of lead-alkali prices rise, the regional price of another record high. As of early August, Shandong region 99% of the mainstream price of raw materials in the 4200-4250 yuan / ton, Inner Mongolia 99% protopine mainstream prices in the 3900-3950 yuan / ton, Xinjiang, 99% of the mainstream price of the mainstream in 3800 -3850 yuan / ton, Ningxia 99% protopine mainstream prices in the 3900-3950 yuan / ton.

However, the good times are not long, just a short period of one week, the domestic protopine market appeared to fall significantly, Inner Mongolia transaction price down 100-150 yuan / ton, 99% protopine mainstream factory in the 3750-3800 yuan / ton; Shandong The regional decline is not large, the current 99% of the mainstream base of the factory in the 4150-4200 yuan / ton; Ningxia 99% of the mainstream base of the factory in the 3750-3800 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton, the domestic protopine market Down, the reason is also due to environmental protection.

The environmental protection inspection mainly for Zhejiang, Shandong, Xinjiang and other regions, paper, alumina and printing and dyeing as the base of the larger downstream industry is also immune from the distribution of various industries, the eastern region is still China’s paper industry The main production areas, but affected by environmental impact, the recent paper industry operating rate has been reduced, leading to weak demand side, the market trading atmosphere is poor; alumina as the main downstream of the main consumer industry, the market trend of good and bad, It is undoubtedly closely related to the downstream alumina industry, but also because of environmental impact, in some areas significantly lower operating load of alumina enterprises, the overall procurement situation in general, the latter is difficult to form a strong support for the protopine market; and domestic dye production is highly concentrated in Zhejiang, according to public Data show that the annual output of disperse dyes up to 440,000 tons / year, accounting for 80% of the country; reactive dye production capacity of 175,000 tons / year, accounting for about 38% of the country, but affected by this environmental impact, some small and medium- Due to environmental protection and safety issues have been discontinued, resulting in a significant reduction in demand for caustic soda, so look, protopine market Mainly due to the potential impact of environmental policies majority.

In the short term, the overall operation of the Alkali Enterprise is normal and the supply of the market will continue to increase, while the downstream industry will continue to be affected by the environmental impact. There is still the possibility of shrinkage in the procurement and the market will wait and see , The base of the enterprise stocks gradually improved, but the transaction situation is difficult, the market will continue to show the performance of the auction, the more obvious factors in the negative factors, the market is expected to rule out the possibility of re-dropping may be, but the late trend, But also should pay more attention to environmental protection on the downstream industry and the specific impact of the alkali industry.

Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd. (Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd.) said today that the company decided to withdraw from the island because of the nickel price crash and the legal disputes caused by the mining rights and interests of the Solomon Islands Nickel ore exploration project.

Sumitomo began its exploration operations in Solomon Islands in 2005 and has been engaged in a six-year legal tug-of-war with Axiom Mining in Australia, which ended in this year, with the outcome that both companies were not fishing in Isabel Nickel mining rights.

“According to our comprehensive review of the business environment, the final decision of the legal process and the judgment of other factors, we have come to the conclusion that it is difficult for us to implement the project,” Sumitom said in a statement.

“We will withdraw all pending mining leases and will be completed by the end of December this year,” the company spokesman said.

Currently, Sumitomo declined to disclose its exploration costs and litigation costs, but said the exit would have a slight impact on its fiscal year ended March 2018.

“Despite the resurgence of the market, the project will be difficult to implement because of the undeveloped nature of the Solomon Islands’ social and legal systems,” the spokesman said.

Sumitomo plans to increase the annual production target of nickel from 20 million tons to 150,000 tons by 2021. The company said it will continue to seek new nickel assets through projects in the Philippines and Indonesia.

The first half of this year, maleic anhydride market ups and downs, as shown below, the lowest price in the 7500-8000 yuan / ton level, the high price can reach 9500 yuan / ton level, the upper and lower spread of 1500-2000 yuan / ton, while prices rose or down The relatively fast speed, making the maleic anhydride market speculative operation greatly enhanced, starting from 2016, maleic anhydride market volatility characteristics to promote speculative opportunities began to increase this year’s performance is more prominent, the market attention has improved significantly.

In addition to considerable price space to give speculation opportunities, the maleic anhydride market there are some other features that can give speculative support. Look at the first half of the price trend, within 6 months, the market has experienced three bands ups and downs, the price fluctuations are relatively frequent, which is to support the market speculative operation of the important factors. Specifically, the two bands spread large, especially in January before the Spring Festival Quotes straight up the process, from 8500 yuan / ton price level straight line rose to 9500 yuan / ton point, but this trend of price fluctuations speculative positions a. The second band 4-5 month price adjustment is relatively small, the price increase of about 500 yuan / ton in the vicinity. The third band, late May to early July, the market experienced a long period of unilateral rise, giving the industry Jiancang stocking time is relatively long.

Currently on the market there are two forms of maleic anhydride, liquid anhydride and solid anhydride, liquid storage requirements are higher, the general situation of the factory directly to the factory, solid anhydride with moisture-proof woven bags, relatively speaking, storage, sales are more flexible , The most important storage conditions is to keep moisture, under normal conditions, solid anhydride can be stored 3-6 months or so, from the product characteristics and storage time point of view, also supports speculation.

Of course speculative operation also has many restrictions, first, maleic anhydride product price is higher, in the 8000-9000 yuan / ton in the vicinity, once Jiancang after the capital occupation and time may be longer, speculative operation time is difficult to do Precise control, the length of time occupied by the funds will also be related to the level of cost. Second, the broadness of the procurement channels will also affect the feasibility of speculation, due to changes in the price of maleic anhydride prices not only by raw materials and related products, the recent industry started its impact on the growing price, , The process of rising prices, enterprises and more direct users and the needs of customers, Jiancang more difficult.

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From the past to see the future, the late maleic anhydride market is also a strong speculative operation it? Future market speculation opportunities, mainly depends on the maleic anhydride market volatility model is not able to extend the current characteristics of maleic anhydride price fluctuations, on the one hand by the impact of raw benzene, on the other hand by the supply and demand impact. From the perspective of raw materials, pure benzene price fluctuation frequency is relatively high, in addition, although the maleic anhydride total excess capacity, but the long-term shutdown capacity of benzene method, butane device still can not meet all the domestic demand, once the device shutdown Maintenance, the supply of tightening will lead to an independent rise in the price of maleic anhydride, so the future price of maleic anhydride is expected to fluctuate the frequency is still high, no significant change in production capacity before the maleic anhydride market speculative operability is still strong.

Last week, dimethyl carbonate market turmoil, and the East China region at a low level, reducing the expected supply. Raw materials prices firm, related products, acetic acid ester market trend is re-rising, most businesses began to wait and see this week, the market trend is more obvious.