On August 14, the rare earth index was 348 points, which was the same as yesterday, which was 65.20% lower than the highest point in the cycle (2011-12-06), which was 28.41% higher than the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: Cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to date)

The average price of metal lanthanum in rare earth metals is 407,500 yuan / ton; the average price of metal bismuth is 1.625 million yuan / ton; the average price of metal bismuth is 660,000 yuan / ton. The average price of lanthanum oxide in rare earth oxides is 322,500 yuan / ton; the average price of cerium oxide is 1,415,500 yuan / ton; the average price of cerium oxide is 410,000 yuan / ton; the average price of cerium oxide is 316,500 yuan / ton. The average price of niobium alloy in rare earth alloy is 41,250 yuan/ton; the average price of niobium-iron alloy is 1.15 million yuan/ton.

Recently, the index of rare earth mining has been released, with a total volume of 120,000 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons compared with 2017. However, domestic rare earth prices have been stable, and most rare earth separation enterprises have stopped production, resulting in a decline in supply, especially some mainstream rare earth oxides. However, the downstream receiving goods are not active, which is due to the low season of rare earth industry sales, and the prices of domestic rare earth products fluctuate at a low level. Recently, the number of buyers has been reduced accordingly, and the transaction volume is very limited. The major manufacturers of products are also cautiously waiting to see each other. The mutual inquiry has become more frequent. The downstream receiving goods are not actively leading to the low price of some rare earth products. The division expects that some products in the rare earth market may go down, but the price of rare earth is already at the bottom, and the space for the decline is limited.

Trump has been on the stage for more than a year, and the improvement of US-Russian relations promoted before his election did not come as scheduled. As the relationship continues to deteriorate, Russia has “cleared” most of the US debt and even considered abandoning the use of US dollars to settle oil.

Last week, the United States imposed a new sanctions against Russia to attract a resolute counterattack from Russia. Russia is not only planning to continue selling its holdings of US debt, but also to significantly reduce its reliance on the US dollar and promote the use of rubles and other currencies in international payments.

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said in an interview with Rossiya 1 TV channel that Russia “plans to continue to reduce investment in US Treasury bonds” because of the new US sanctions against Russia, and said that “the dollar is becoming a dangerous payment tool for international trade.” The Russian Finance Minister also hinted that it is possible to use the ruble in the oil trade and abandon the dollar.

“We have greatly reduced our investment in US assets. In fact, the US dollar is now considered a risky payment instrument in international currencies,” Siluanov pointed out.

In March and April this year, Russia sold most of its US Treasury bonds in just two months.

According to data released by the US Treasury Department last month, in the two months to the end of May, Russian holdings of US Treasury bonds fell from $96 billion to less than $15 billion.

Last week, the tension between the United States and Russia deteriorated further. For British citizens, former Russian agent Sergei Skripal was attacked by nerve agents in the United Kingdom, and the United States imposed comprehensive new sanctions on Russia.

The new sanctions may include the downgrade of diplomatic relations, the total ban on Russian oil imports, the ban on “all other goods and technologies” other than US agricultural products, and restrictions on US banks’ loans. The United States must also suspend the aviation agreement and oppose any multilateral assistance provided by the development bank.

Affected by this, the Russian ruble fell to the lowest level in more than two years against the US dollar.

However, Russia’s current reaction is still restrained and does not affect US companies operating in Russia. Siluanov said, “At the moment, we have not made any restrictions or closures, such as closing McDonald’s because our citizens work in these companies.”

First, the price trend

According to data from the business community’s big list, this week, n-butanol rose broadly. On August 6, the average price of domestic enterprises was 7875.00 yuan/ton. On August 10, the average price of domestic enterprises was 8425.00 yuan/ton, up 6.98% this week. As of August 10, the mainstream price of enterprises is 8200-8600 yuan / ton.

Second, the market analysis

Products: The overall operating rate of domestic n-butanol is not high, the factory equipment is intensively repaired, the spot supply is tight, the inventory is low, the price rises too fast, and the industrial chain is under pressure. As of August 10, the domestic mainstream price of butanol is 8200- 8600 yuan / ton, Shandong Lihua benefit 8200 yuan / ton, Wanhua Chemical North China area 8200 yuan / ton, East China area 8700 yuan / ton. South China 8800 yuan / ton, Luxi Chemical 8600 yuan / ton, Sinopec Qilu 8300 yuan / ton, upstream raw materials have strong support for n-butanol, the market trading atmosphere is active, procurement and active shipments smoothly.

Industry chain: The price of propylene in the upstream rose overall this week, the increase was large, the propylene raw material gas resources were scarce, the short-term parking due to insufficient raw materials, the supply of propylene output-limited enterprises decreased, and the overall inventory was low, resulting in a large push of n-butanol prices. Up, the downstream operating rate of n-butanol is low, the operating rate of butyl acrylate is about 5.3%, and the butyl acetate is about 5.3%. Most of the profits are not satisfactory.

Macro: In July 2018, the Business Social Enterprise’s Commodity Supply and Demand Index (BCI) was 0.12, with an increase of 0.59%, reflecting that the manufacturing economy was expanding in the month and the economy was running smoothly.

Third, the market outlook

The business community is butanol analysts predict: As the production of n-butanol production enterprises is stable, the supply side tightening will be eased, raw material propylene enters the high-priced digestion and finishing stage in the early stage, next week, the positive butanol market is stable, the mainstream reference price The range is from 8,300 yuan / ton to 8,800 yuan / ton.

In 2017, the world’s total titanium dioxide production capacity is about 7.5 million tons, of which the top six are the capacity of Keguan (formerly DuPont), Venator (formerly Huntsman), Koster, Longyi Lilian, Connors and Teno. The combined capacity of several major manufacturers accounts for nearly 60% of the total global production capacity.

In recent years, the merger and reorganization of the international and domestic titanium dioxide industry has been staged. In 2017, Tronox announced a definitive agreement to acquire the Koster Titanium Dioxide business for $1.663 billion in cash. Once the merger is completed, it will create the world’s largest and most integrated new leader in the titanium dioxide industry. However, during the imminent completion of the acquisition, it was subject to antitrust review by the US Federal Trade Commission, the European Commission and Saudi Arabian officials.

Recently, in order to obtain approval from the US and EU regulators for the acquisition of Koster’s titanium dioxide business, several major titanium dioxide companies in the world are trying to reorganize their assets, which may be the last major integration action in the titanium dioxide industry.

Teno is in the process of two separate transactions, and has signed a memorandum of understanding with Tenova in the United States to sell two sets of titanium dioxide units with a total capacity of 245,000 tons per year in Kost’s Ashtabula, Ohio, to Venator ( Ashtebilla is the only production base of Koster in the United States and the world’s largest producer of titanium dioxide. In a separate transaction, Teno has signed a definitive agreement to sell its 8120 paper laminate grade titanium dioxide business to Venator, and the acquisition amount has not been disclosed.

If Venator successfully purchases the assets of Ashbilla, then Connors may also participate in the reshuffle of industry assets. If Teno’s acquisition of Koster is successful, Connors will be interested in buying a 50% stake in Venator’s Chlorine Titanium Dioxide Factory.

If the asset restructuring between several giants is finally reviewed by the regulatory authorities, the oligopoly in the international titanium dioxide market will be further exacerbated!

The domestic titanium dioxide market has also been in constant news in recent years. In October 2016, Yulilian and Sichuan Longyan announced the formal merger, becoming the world’s No. 1 and the world’s fourth titanium dioxide enterprise. The domestic officially kicked off the industry integration. The top ten domestic production capacity is about 161,000 tons, and the production enterprises are scattered. The 52 titanium dioxide production enterprises in the statistics have an average production capacity of only 73,500 tons. At present, there are 27 enterprises with less than 50,000 tons on the market, and the production capacity is less than 700,000 tons, accounting for 34.6% of domestic production enterprises. Some small-capacity such as Guangxi Jiahua, Xichang Ruikang, Zhongyan Zhuhua, and Yunnan Zechang have all withdrawn due to environmental protection and other factors.

Environmental protection’s high pressure promote industry integration, domestic environmental protection policies are becoming more and more stringent, and sulfuric acid process manufacturers have to meet increasing environmental protection requirements by changing raw material structure, improving process technology, and strengthening three-waste treatment. If the follow-up environmental protection policy continues to be high-pressure and strictly enforced, SMEs on the margin of loss will be unable to afford and will be forced to withdraw. The domestic titanium dioxide production capacity will be further concentrated, and large enterprises are expected to enjoy the price dividend brought by the oligopoly.

According to preliminary statistics from China Customs, in July 2018, China exported 2.13 million tons of various mineral fertilizers and fertilizers (excluding ammonium chloride, potassium nitrate and organic and organic fertilizers), a year-on-year decrease of 19.3%; the export value was US$650 million, Reduced by 3.6%.

From January to July, China exported 11.712 million tons of mineral fertilizers and fertilizers, a year-on-year decrease of 13.8%; the cumulative export value was 3.279 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%.

In terms of fertilizer imports, China imported a total of 540,000 tons of various fertilizers in July 2018, with an import value of US$171 million. As the new annual joint import of potash fertilizer has not reached an agreement, the import of potash fertilizer has decreased, and the total amount of various fertilizer imports in the month hit a new low in the year. From January to July, the cumulative import was 6.098 million tons, an increase of 16.7% over the same period of last year; the cumulative import value was 1.671 billion US dollars, an increase of 26.1%.