Kuala Lumpur, March 6: Malaysian spot tin prices rose by $70 on Wednesday to $21,640 per ton, Trading Volume 45 tons, compared with 18 tons on the previous trading day.

On the 4th, Asian Styrene CFR China closed at $1075-1085 per ton, up $5.0 per ton; FOB Korea closed at $1025-1035 per ton, up $5.0 per ton.

Iran’s Tasnim News Agency reported on March 2. In February, Iranian crude oil exports to Asia rebounded, nearly doubling from last month. Data show that Asian crude oil imports from Iran fell to their lowest level in two months in January, with China and India slowing down their purchases, while Japan imported zero for the third consecutive month. As a result of the US sanctions, Iranian oil buyers have to overcome transportation and payment problems. China, India, Japan and South Korea, as the four largest buyers of Iranian crude oil in Asia, imported 710,000 barrels of crude oil a day from Iran in January, down 49% from the same period in 2018. In January, as the largest customer, China imported 377,000 barrels of Iranian crude oil a day, down from 500,000 barrels a day in December last year; India imported 270,000 barrels a day; South Korea resumed importing Iranian oil in January after four months of interruption, but its imports fell by 75% compared with the same period last year; Japan imported zero in January. Sources predict that Iran’s crude oil exports to Asia nearly doubled in February to about 1.38 million barrels a day, as Japan and South Korea increased Iranian crude oil purchases in the first few months of the exemption period (May this year).

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of March 4, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2480 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol market performance was strong.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic methanol market performance is strong. In the port market, the futures market has risen sharply, mainly in the hope of cash arbitrage. The trading atmosphere is good, and the port market rises with the market. Mainland market continued strong trend in the early period, olefin extraction supported by stable goods; plus later period equipment maintenance concentrated, supply side stock shrinkage expectations, business mindset strong, expected short-term market or maintain a volatile upward trend. In addition, the new olefin projects in Inner Mongolia and Jiangsu need continuous attention. Continuous arrangement of domestic methanol freight. The freight charges of Inner Mongolia North Line to Lubei are 290-350 yuan/ton for reference, 10 yuan/ton for low end, 290-310 yuan/ton for South line to Lubei, 10 yuan/ton for low end, 120-200 yuan/ton for part of Shanxi and 10-30 yuan/ton for North Shanxi, 140-200 yuan/ton for Guanzhong to North Shandong, 140-230 yuan/ton for South Shandong and 20 yuan/ton for high end. Xinjiang to North Shandong refers to about 790 yuan per ton.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: formaldehyde market is running steadily. Each enterprise’s offer is temporarily stable, start-up load is rising, downstream demand is recovering, but downstream formaldehyde is more resistant to the rise, the overall follow-up is limited. At present, the cost of formaldehyde market is at a high level, the overall inventory pressure is not large, but the follow-up of demand is limited. It is expected that the short-term market will be reorganized and operated. Acetic acid: The domestic acetic acid market is obviously weak. The North China supplier’s price drop aggravates the market’s hollowness in the latter part of the acetic acid market. The market has no buying intention for the declining acetic acid, and the market turnover is cold. Export is not good for the time being, and the market is becoming worse and worse. At present, the domestic acetic acid plant as a whole starts at a high level and the downstream demand digestion is slow, which leads to the situation that the market supply exceeds demand continues to intensify. It is expected that the weak acetic acid market will continue to dominate. Dimethyl ether: Dimethyl ether prices rose steadily and moderately, the trend warmed up. With the previous price dropping to a low level, terminals and traders have entered the market to stock up under the demand of bottom-copying, and the atmosphere of negotiation is good. The manufacturer delivers a large number of goods, and the inventory has basically returned to a controllable state. After the deep fall in the earlier period, most manufacturers’profits are hanging upside down at present, with a strong price mentality, and there is still room for dimethyl ether to rise.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, futures: futures market has risen sharply, driving the spot market to rise; domestic installations: Mainland based on spring inspection and other factors, and under the influence of environmental protection policies, maintenance enterprises have increased, local supply or contraction in the latter period; olefins: olefin procurement, pre-sale is good, supporting the price of raw material methanol. On the negative side, inventory: high inventory in the port area is difficult to digest in the short term, and the inventory pressure is high; freight: local freight of methanol has fallen significantly in the near future, which makes the cost of arrival slightly loose. Methanol analysts at business associations predict that the short-term domestic methanol market will rise slightly.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the price of zinc fell first and then rose after the shock adjustment in February. As of Feb. 28, the price of zinc ingot was 22006.67 yuan/ton, down 523.33 yuan/ton, or 2.32 percent, from 22530.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In February, the price of zinc fell first and then rose. Zinc market struggled and adjusted concussively.

II. Market Trend Analysis

In terms of products:

In February, the price of zinc ingot in LME market was adjusted by price fluctuation. As of February 28, the closing price of zinc in LME market in London was 2750 US dollars/ton, which was 26 US dollars/ton higher than the opening price of zinc in early February. The price fluctuation adjustment of zinc price resulted in a slight increase in spot zinc price. In February, the stock of zinc futures in LME market in London dropped sharply. As of February 27, the stock of zinc futures was 67 825 tons, which was 113200 tons higher than that in early February. Inventory has fallen sharply, which is good for zinc market.

On February 28, the closing price of zinc futures in Shanghai futures market was 21885 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan/ton from the opening price of 22325 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and in February, the price of zinc futures fell sharply, which had a negative impact on the spot zinc market. In February, the zinc futures inventory in Shanghai futures market increased sharply, and as of February 28, the zinc futures inventory increased sharply, resulting in a negative impact on the zinc market.

data statistics

According to data released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG), the global zinc supply shortage was 384,000 tons in 2018 and 442,000 tons in 2017. According to a report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the global supply of zinc in 2018 was in excess of 48.5 million tons, while the supply shortage in 2017 was 438,000 tons. Overall, the supply of zinc increased in 2018, and the supply of zinc gradually changed from short supply to over demand. The growth of zinc supply has a negative impact on zinc city.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Bai Jiaxin, a business analyst, believes that after the Spring Festival of 2019, the supply of zinc in China has been concentrated and the stock of zinc ingots in futures market has soared, which has a big negative impact on zinc market. On the demand side, with the recovery of enterprises and the gradual start of infrastructure projects after the festival, the demand for zinc ingots has gradually warmed up, but the demand for zinc ingots has obviously not kept pace with the increase in supply, and the zinc ingot Market is bright and bright. Obviously, in the global zinc market in 2018, there will be a shortage of supply to excess supply. In 2019, the supply of zinc will remain high, but the macroeconomic weakness, the demand of zinc market has not improved significantly. In the future, the excess supply of zinc market may increase, the pressure of zinc price decline will increase, and the adjustment of zinc price fluctuation in the future market may be greater. In the long run, the global economy will rebound slightly but not optimistically in 2019. The macroeconomic benefits of zinc market are limited. The rebound of zinc market is insufficient. The space for zinc price to rise is limited. There is still room for zinc price to rise in March. However, the price of zinc ingots will rise or remain low. The price of zinc ingots may be adjusted by shocks between 2000 and 23000.