According to data released by the Indian Ministry of Coal and Indian Coal Corporation, India’s coal output in January-February 2019 was about 133 million tons, an increase of 34.26 million tons, or 2.6% over the same period last year. Among them, the output of Indian Coal Company (CIL) was 153 million tons, an increase of 3.6% year on year; the output of Singh Coal Mine Company (SCCL) was 12.3 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% year on year; and the output of Lignite Company (NLC) was 54.66 million tons, a decrease of 3.9% year on year.

According to statistics released by Mongolia’s National Statistical Office, Mongolia’s coal output from January to February 2019 was 8 million tons, an increase of 23.1% compared with the same period last year, and its coal export was 6.24 million tons, an increase of 19.0% compared with the same period last year. Among them, coal output in February was 3.863 million tons, an increase of 44.7% compared with the same period last year; coal export was 4.076 million tons, an increase of 25.5% compared with the same period last year.

On March 24, the PX commodity index was 72.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.69% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 58.07% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant has been overhauled. Other units have been running steadily for the time being. The domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal. The market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On March 22, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 12 US dollars per ton. The closing price was US$1027-1029 per ton FOB in Korea and US$1046-1048 per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a positive and negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the price of p-xylene in the market fluctuates.

On March 22, the price of WTI crude oil in May fell to 59.04 US dollars per barrel, a drop of 0.94 US dollars. Brent crude oil in May fell to 67.03 US dollars per barrel, a drop of 0.83 US dollars. The fluctuation of crude oil price has little impact on the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price of xylene Market is stable temporarily. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA price trend temporarily stabilized 25 days, the average price of East China bid in the vicinity of 6500-6650 yuan/ton, as of 25 days domestic PTA start-up rate is about 84%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 80%, downstream production and sales rate has risen, but PTA market prices rose slightly, it is expected that PX market prices will remain volatile in the later period.

I. Crude Oil Price Trend

In March, crude oil showed a volatile upward trend. The steady progress of major OPEC production cuts boosted oil prices. Saudi Arabia’s production cuts were remarkable and its plan to promote the extension of production cuts was remarkable. In addition, the number of active oil drilling wells in the United States dropped sharply, and crude oil stocks decreased. However, worries about slowing economic development limited the upward space for oil prices. As of March 18, Brent charged $67.54 per barrel and WTI $59.09 per barrel.

II. Futures Price Trend

Since mid-March, the trend of futures has fallen sharply. Liansu L1905 contract has recently fallen below the previous 8500 point support and reached a new low of 8300. At present, Liansu L1905 contract daily line above the mean line suppression is strong, there is a possibility to continue downward, but the lower detection 8250-8300 has support, the position of Yongan futures single dominant, so the overall decline is limited. In the short term, the 8500 position of L1905 contract of Lianyuan Plastics has been changed from support position to pressure position, and the upstream is weak. It is suggested that the operation of empty sheet holding be changed to short multi-operation after breaking through 8450-8500 position.

3. The Trend of Spot Price

In March, polyethylene spot continued to decline, the accumulation of petrochemical stocks caused by the Spring Festival holidays was difficult, and petrochemical had to implement a price reduction policy. Traders have a pessimistic mentality and follow the downturn to seek delivery. However, the downward factors of both spot and futures lead to cautious downstream takeover, low market trading atmosphere and high transaction resistance. Overall, although oil prices have risen, the slowdown in economic development has limited upward space. Polyethylene futures and spot markets have declined one after another, coupled with the high spot petrochemical inventory, so oil prices support this market is very limited, market pessimism is strong, market pressure is particularly obvious.

On March 20, the PX commodity index was 72.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.69% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 58.07% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant has been overhauled. Other units have been running steadily for the time being. The domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal. The market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On March 20, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 14 US dollars per ton. The closing price is 1043-1045 US dollars per ton FOB in Korea and 106 2-1064 US dollars per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a positive and negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the price of p-xylene in the market fluctuates.

On March 20, the May futures market price of WTI crude oil in the United States rose to $59.83 per barrel, an increase of $0.80. The May futures price of Brent crude oil fell to $68.50 per barrel, a decrease of $0.89. The slight increase in crude oil price has little effect on the price of downstream petrochemical products and has temporarily stabilized the price trend of xylene market. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA prices maintained a low trend on 21 days. The average offer price in East China was raised near 6500-6600 yuan/ton. As of 21 days, domestic PTA start-up rate was about 84%, polyester industry start-up rate was about 80%, downstream production and sales rate increased, but PTA market prices were lower, and the price of PX market is expected to remain volatile in the later period.