I. Price Trend Chart of Polyformaldehyde Market

Price Curve of Polyformaldehyde

(Photo Source: Business Association Commodity Analysis System)

According to the monitoring of business associations, the average price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong Province on August 6 was 4833 yuan/ton, which was down 0.67% from last week.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Shandong Aldehyde Industry Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30,000 tons of polyformaldehyde, the price of polyformaldehyde (96) is 4800 yuan/ton with tax, and the price is stable. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. produces 9,000 tons of polyformaldehyde per year. The price of polyformaldehyde (96) is 4700 yuan per ton with tax. The price has a downward trend. Weifang Xudong Chemical Co., Ltd. produces 20,000 tons of polyformaldehyde per year. The price of polyformaldehyde (96) is 5,000 yuan/ton with tax, and the price is stable for the time being. Influenced by environmental inspection factors, most manufacturers have stopped production, and their quotations are slightly firm.

Industry chain: Polyformaldehyde is affected by the upstream raw materials, the price has a downward trend, the downstream demand of polyformaldehyde is general.

3. Future Market Forecast

To sum up, the analysts of polyformaldehyde in business associations believe that the market of polyformaldehyde will be adjusted mainly in the short term.

On August 6, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 6th, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant was started one line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Unit was put into operation, and other units were running steadily for the time being due to the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On August 5, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 15 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 778-780 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 797-799 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On August 5, the price of WTI crude oil futures fell to 54.69 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.97 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures fell to 59.81 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 2.08 U.S. dollars. Crude oil prices declined, which lost some cost support for the price of downstream petrochemical products. The price trend of p-xylene market is temporary. Steady. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA prices declined on the 6th day. The average price in East China was raised near 5200-5300 yuan/ton. By the 5th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate was about 95%, the polyester industry start-up rate was about 84%, and the downstream production and sales rate did not change much. However, PTA market prices were slightly lower. It is expected that PX market prices will be maintained in the later period. Keep oscillating.

On August 5, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 5th day. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field, 50% of Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started operation, one line of Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started operation, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Unit put into operation, and other units operated steadily temporarily due to the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On August 2, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 24 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 793-795 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 812-814 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On August 2, the price of WTI crude oil futures rose to 55.66 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.18 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures rose to 61.89 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.01 U.S. dollars. Crude oil prices rose, which has a certain cost support role for the price of downstream petrochemical products. The price trend of paraxylene Market is temporarily stable. 。 Recent textile industry volatility, PTA prices declined on the 5th day, the average price of East China is around 5250-5300 yuan/ton, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 95%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 84%, downstream production and sales rate is lower, but PTA market price is slightly lower, and it is expected that PX market price will be maintained in the later period. Keep oscillating.

Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of business associations, the average price of mainstream refineries of domestic naphtha was 5995.00 yuan/ton as of July 31, up 8.02% from 5550.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and the price of refined naphtha continued to rise this month.

On July 31, the naphtha commodity index was 73.99, up 0.34 points from yesterday, down 27.90% from the peak of 102.62 points in the cycle (2012-09-24), and up 75.17% from the low of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-01 to date)

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Refinery naphtha prices continued to rise this month. At present, most refineries have low inventories and less pressure on merchants to ship. At present, the mainstream price of hydronaphtha is around 5950 yuan/ton. The Asian naphtha cracking spreads rose for the fourth consecutive day on Wednesday, July 31, to $32.40 a tonne, the highest since July 15, as sustained demand underpinned the market.

Industry Chain: Upstream: According to the monitoring of business associations, WTI crude oil in the United States was 58.47 US dollars per barrel at the beginning of the month, 58.05 US dollars per barrel at the end of the month, with a weekly increase and decrease of -0.72%; Brent crude oil was 66.55 US dollars per barrel at the beginning of the month and 64.72 US dollars per barrel at the end of the month, with a weekly increase and decrease of -2.75%. Several factors, such as tension between the United States and Iraq, the Gulf of Mexico storm and worries about oversupply, affected the trend of international crude oil prices in July. Downstream: Sinopec suppliers increased demand in the middle of the month, the end of the month and August stockpiling has not yet started, downstream resistance to high prices. According to business associations, toluene market prices rose by more than 5% this month. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 5,500 yuan per ton. The market price of xylene is firm and rising steadily. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 5850-5880 yuan/ton. This month, due to the sharp decline in pure benzene port inventory and import volume, as well as the shortage of pure benzene supply in the United States, domestic pure benzene prices fell after a sharp rise this month, and the current price of pure benzene is 5000-5350 yuan/ton. In the PX market, the PX pre-maintenance device will be restarted soon, and the new device is planned to be put into production at the end of the month.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in July 2019, there were 7 kinds of commodities rising annually in the energy sector, including 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were MTBE (12.29%), diesel (8.34%) and gasoline (8.07%). There are 9 kinds of commodities falling annually, and 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5% accounted for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in the plate. The products of the first three declines were methanol (-9.55%), petroleum coke (-6.15%) and Brent crude oil (-2.75%). This month’s average rise and fall was 0.98%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from business associations believe that most refineries have low inventories and less pressure on merchants to ship. Sinopec suppliers will purchase demand in September and October in August. Refining naphtha prices are expected to rise in August, with the average price range of 5800-6300 yuan/ton.

On August 1, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but recently with the warming of the weather, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles. Domestic prices are declining. As of the 1st day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations in 1900-2050 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance for environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is temporarily stable.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, the market price is 1756.67 yuan/ton as of the 1st day. The declining trend of nitric acid price has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate keeps low. The domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream is slightly declining, the market performance is general, and the market transaction is still acceptable, mainly by the upstream transaction. The impact of this increase, transaction remains stable, most of the manufacturers’inventory pressure has eased slightly compared with the previous period, and some of the overhauls are the main ones. The supply performance of most manufacturers in North China is still acceptable. The price quoted by manufacturers in North China is maintained at around 3300 yuan/ton. The price quoted by manufacturers in Northwest China is between 2800 yuan/ton and 3000 yuan/ton. The normal shipment of manufacturers is downstream. Reasonable purchasing of manufacturers and the downward trend of raw material prices have a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has increased. However, the price trend of liquid ammonia market is temporarily stable, and the market of ammonium nitrate is shaking at a low level due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain shocks in the later period.