On August 28, the rare earth index was 373 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 62.70% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 37.64% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of Neodymium in rare earth metals is 395,500 yuan per ton, dysprosium metal is 2.3 million yuan per ton and praseodymium metal is 695,000 yuan per ton. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxides in rare earth oxides increased by 4000 yuan/ton to 317,500 yuan/ton; the price of dysprosium oxide dropped by 5000 yuan/ton to 191,000 yuan/ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide was 382,500 yuan/ton; and the average price of neodymium oxide increased by 4000 yuan/ton to 315,000 yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 395,500 yuan per ton, and the average price of dysprosium and iron alloys is 191,000 yuan per ton.

Recently, the prices of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market have fallen, but the prices of light rare earth market have risen slightly. The domestic rare earth market has a general trading market. The prices of dysprosium-terbium metal oxides have fallen slightly. Recently, the inquiries for praseodymium oxide and neodymium oxide in the field have increased, and the prices of light rare earth oxides have maintained a rising trend. At that time, the sellers of light rare earth in the field had a pity selling situation. Xu, bullish future market, recent on-site transactions in general. The supply of rare earth is normal in China. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazards of some products, which make the environmental protection supervision stricter. Under stringent environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market input of rare earth oxides, especially some mainstream rare earth oxides, with normal supply and stable price trend in the rare earth market. Recently, large enterprise groups in the field are reluctant to sell. The market of rare earth oxides is general, but for products. Pricing major manufacturers are also cautious.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has made no reduction in its stringent efforts, which has a greater impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a low start-up and a cold market. Recently, the Development and Reform Commission and the relevant departments have stepped up effective measures to regulate the industry, innovate and improve the relevant management mechanism, accelerate the construction of a rational industrial structure, advanced scientific and technological level, effective protection of resources, orderly production and operation of the industry development pattern, and give full play to the special price of rare earth as a strategic resource. Meanwhile, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and people in the domestic market are waiting for the good news of the policy and national reserves.

Rare earth analysts from business associations expect that domestic environmental stringency will not diminish in the near future, coupled with domestic rectification of the order of the rare earth industry, Myanmar’s export restrictions and normal supply, but the demand for rare earth downstream has been supported in the near future, and some prices in the rare earth market are expected to rise.

On August 27, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 27th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant went into operation. Other units operated steadily temporarily due to the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On August 26, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 2 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 762-764 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 781-783 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The fluctuation of foreign prices has a certain impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of domestic p-xylene is temporarily stable.

On August 26, the price of WTI crude oil futures fell to $53.64 per barrel, a decline of $0.53. Brent crude oil futures fell to $58.70 per barrel, a decline of $0.64. In a recent report issued by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the growth rate of global crude oil demand per day in 2019 is expected to be reduced from 1.5 million barrels to 1.1 million barrels. It is also expected that there will be a slight surplus in the oil market in 2020, and that the trend of crude oil prices will decline, which will have a negative impact on downstream petrochemical products and the market price of paraxylene. The trend of the latter is temporarily stable. Recently, the textile industry has maintained a low price, PTA price has been stable for 27 days. The average price of East China is raised near 5100-5200 yuan/ton. As of the 26th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 94.5%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 86.5%, and the PTA social stock is estimated to be about 1.4 million tons. Affected by the shutdown and maintenance of the plant, the overall maintenance in August is carried out. Keep a small tempo of depot. PTA factory inventory accounts for about 30%, polyester factory raw material inventory accounts for about 28%, downstream polyester factory has space to continue to replenish. Towards the traditional sales season of “Gold, Nine, Silver and Ten” for textiles, downstream terminal enterprises may usher in the procurement cycle and demand side will improve. It is expected that the price of PX market will remain volatile in the short term.

On August 25, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Domestic ammonium nitrate market prices slipped slightly on the 26th. Domestic ammonium nitrate plants are running smoothly and are in the off-season of downstream demand. Ammonium nitrate manufacturers have a general delivery market and purchase on demand downstream. In addition, affected by environmental protection control, the downstream civil explosion industry in China has been shut down a lot. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have limited start-up and low on-site prices. The amplitude declined. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream in Shaanxi was 190-2000 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 190-2000 yuan/ton, and in Hebei was 1850-1950 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, some downstream factories were forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate was at a low level, and the market price of ammonium nitrate was small. The amplitude declined.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price has maintained a low trend, with the market price of 1610 yuan/ton as of the 26th. The domestic nitric acid market price has maintained a low level, which has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market. Jiangsu mainstream manufacturers quoted 1600 yuan/ton, Anhui mainstream manufacturers quoted 1620 yuan/ton, Shandong manufacturers quoted 1620 yuan/ton, the low price trend of nitric acid has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, the price trend of ammonium nitrate slightly declined; upstream domestic liquid ammonia Market volatility, the market performance is general, The market turnover is still acceptable. The market price of liquid ammonia is 3210 yuan/ton. The upstream cost of liquid ammonia is lower. In addition, most of the manufacturers’inventory pressure has increased compared with the previous period. Some plants have been restarted and local ammonia supply in the region has increased. Especially in Shanxi and North China, most of the manufacturers have sufficient supply of ammonia, while the manufacturers in North China have sufficient supply of ammonia. The price is maintained in the range of 2900-3400 yuan/ton and 2500-2600 yuan/ton in Northwest China. The low level of liquid ammonia has a negative impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate market. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has increased. However, the price trend of liquid ammonia market is temporarily stable, and the market of ammonium nitrate is shaking at a low level due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market prices remain volatile, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain low in the later period.

Price Trend

Business associations: MTBE market prices rose this week (August 18-August 24)

According to data from business associations, MTBE’s price this weekend was 5,750 yuan/ton, up 2.99% from the previous week’s price.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, domestic MTBE market prices continue to climb, international crude oil prices surge upward, gasoline market prices remain stable as a whole, and as of August 23, the latest crude oil change rate is 1.45%, refined oil is expected to increase by 100 yuan/ton, expected to boost MTBE market prices.

Industry chain: International crude oil prices rose first and then fell this week. WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose slightly by 1.62% and 2.90% this week. Domestic gasoline prices were 6,694 yuan/ton, down 0.88% this week.

In MTBE market, with the increase of crude oil price at the beginning of the week and the anticipated increase of domestic refined oil, as well as the new round of raw material purchasing cycle of georefining, the buying and selling atmosphere of MTBE market has improved, which has pushed up the market price of MTBE. However, the operation of oil dispatchers in the Southern Market is still very negative, and the market mainly operates in a light and stable way. At the same time, this week Southern Alkylated Oil due to Sinopec’s large orders, East China, South China market performance is positive, the market price performance is relatively strong.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of MTBE products of Business Society Energy Branch believe that there is a high probability that international oil prices will continue to oscillate next week. Domestic gasoline market also has “gold, silver and ten” demand support. MTBE market prices are expected to rise steadily next week.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the quotation of domestic n-propanol distributors fell slightly this week. According to the quotation of domestic n-propanol distributors in Shandong and other mainstream areas, as of August 22, the price of domestic n-propanol distributors with packaging was around 10,933 yuan/ton, which was 67 yuan lower than the average price on August 14, down-0.61%.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Beginning this week (August 19), the domestic n-propanol market quotation began to decline slightly. The price quoted by the n-propanol distributor in Zibo, Shandong Province, was around 10,600 yuan/ton (including tax and packaging), down 200 yuan/ton from the previous week. Taiwan’s importers of n-propanol (including packaging) quoted prices near 10,100-11,400 yuan per ton, down about 100 yuan per ton from the previous week. Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd., a domestic n-propanol manufacturer, accepts the discharging price of water purification near 8900 yuan/ton.

Industry Chain: This week, the price of propylene oxide market has risen, the price of mainstream factories has been firm, the quotation has been raised mainly, the market intention is obvious, the supply tension has eased slightly, the short-term market is mainly consolidation, the cash delivery price of Shandong mainstream market of Wanhua Chemistry is 10 850 yuan/ton on 22nd, and the cash delivery price of East China mainstream market is 11.1 yuan/ton. 50 yuan per ton, Shandong and East China market prices were raised by about 100 yuan per ton compared with last week.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the short term, the price of n-propanol market fluctuates slightly. Affected by the environment and other factors, the price of n-propanol may be slightly loosened again.