I. Trend analysis

According to the data of business associations, the domestic price of cis-butadiene rubber rose mainly in September. At the beginning of the month, the price was 11075 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 1290 yuan/ton, up 16.48%.

II. Market Analysis

Influenced by the slight increase in raw materials, cis-butadiene rubber rose slightly at the beginning of the month, and then stabilized for half a month. On the one hand, the price of raw material butadiene is stable, and the whole cis-butadiene rubber industry chain is in a balanced state. According to the monitoring of business associations, the price of raw material butadiene was basically stable in the first half of September. At the beginning of the month, the price was 10,354 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 10,390, which was relatively stable as a whole. On the other hand, downstream tires started relatively stable, and the purchase of cis-tin was not warm. Although the ex-factory price of petrochemical plants increased slightly at the beginning of the month, the market was mainly shipped, and the offer was relatively stable.

The market of cis-butadiene rubber rose sharply in the second half of September. Firstly, the price of cis-butadiene rubber rose sharply due to the impact of the soaring crude oil, which put great pressure on the price of cis-butadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of business associations, the price of raw material Butadiene on September 16 was 10 401 yuan/ton, and on September 29, the price of butadiene was 1 1845 yuan/ton, up 13.66 percent as a whole. Secondly, the bottom price of Shanghai rubber construction rose to 12,000 yuan per ton in September, which led to the rising sentiment of cis-butadiene rubber. Finally, the start-up of cis-butadiene rubber plant has dropped significantly since the third quarter. After entering the August, the first stop was to stop and stop parking, and then to be forced to stop or reduce the load of the butadiene rubber and Qixiang rubber and other butadiene rubber units, which led to a continuous decline in the operating rate of 50%, and the supply was further reduced.

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In late September, with the National Day approaching, environmental protection supervision became more stringent, production restriction and shutdown plans were gradually implemented in some areas, the purchasing power of cis-butadiene was weakened, and the price rise of cis-butadiene rubber was slightly alleviated. It is understood that the letter issued by the office of the emergency response working group of the heavy pollution weather bureau of the provincial Party Committee on heavy pollution weather in response to the heavy pollution weather process in from September 25th to 29th suggested that municipalities issued the orange warning for heavy pollution weather at 0:00 on September 23rd and launched the second level emergency response at 0:00 in September 24th. At that time, some tire enterprises will have a limited production shutdown plan.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Business analysts believe that, on the one hand, the rising price of raw materials butadiene supports the price of cis-butadiene rubber; on the other hand, the supply of cis-butadiene market is relatively tight, and in the later period, the price of cis-butadiene rubber will remain high.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the market of DMF in Shandong rose in September, with the average price of DMF at the beginning of the month being 4600.00 yuan/ton and at the end of the month being 4966.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.97%. Current prices are down 32.58% from last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: DMF market rose this week. By the end of September, mainstream manufacturers in East China offered 5700-5800 yuan/ton, mainstream manufacturers in Guangdong offered 6000 yuan/ton and mainstream manufacturers in Shandong offered 5500 yuan/ton. Henan Junhua 30,000 tons/year plant parking overhaul has been restarted. The 100,000 tons/year DMF plant in Luxi Chemical Industry of Shandong Province stopped for maintenance on August 14 and restarted in the first ten days of October. The 30,000 tons/year DMF plant in Junhua, Henan Province stopped for maintenance on September 21. There is no news about the restart time. Shaanxi Yanxinghua has annual output of 100,000 tons/year DMF device 18 parking overhaul, restart time may be at the end of the month. Anyang, Henan Province, 9 days of annual production of 120,000 tons/year DMF device 26 due to Anhuan inspection parking, restart time after 11. DMF inventory is at a low level, the major DMF manufacturers have a positive mentality, have increased prices, double positive, DMF prices continue to rise.

Industry chain: The price of methanol in the upstream continues to rise. Influenced by crude oil, methanol futures and the expectation of methanol to olefin production, the methanol market has a positive trading atmosphere. Mainland enterprises have shipped smoothly, and the focus of market negotiations is constantly rising. At the beginning of the month, the price was 1994.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 2289.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.84%. The equipment start-up rate of domestic pulp mills has increased due to the influence of the peak season. The terminal orders of the main factories in the industry have increased, and the purchasing is active, which promotes the rise of DMF prices.

3. Future Market Forecast

Recently, the upstream methanol market was affected by the high price finishing before the end of the 11-long vacation. The downstream slurry enterprises were just in need of improvement driven by the peak season of the gold, silver and ten markets. In addition, the nine-day parking and maintenance in Anyang aggravated the decline rate of DMF inventory. Therefore, the DMF product analysts of business associations believed that the short-term DMF market consolidation was on the upward trend. Lord.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the domestic isomeric xylene market showed a slight pullback this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.7%, due to the effect of oil price pullback and long vacation.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Affected by the rapid recovery of Saudi crude oil production capacity, oil price recovery and the coming of long holidays in China, and the increasingly light trade, the isomeric xylene market showed a slight retracement trend this week despite the support of low port inventory. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 6850-6900 yuan/ton. According to the feedback from traders, the trading volume fell slightly from last week, and the port inventory remained low, at about 15,000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, crude oil, affected by the rapid recovery of Saudi oil production, this week’s oil price rebound, spot Brent fell 3.8%, Brent futures fell 5.11%, WTI futures fell 3.12%, Dubai futures fell 3.98%.

Downstream, PX market, domestic PX price trend is stable, short-term PX market prices are expected to maintain a stable trend. PTA market, this week’s price trend is stable, CFR China is about 650 U.S. dollars / ton, affected by the downstream demand is not strong, PTA is expected to maintain a stable and volatile trend in the short term. OX market, the external offer FOB Rotterdam about 845 U.S. dollars / ton, due to the upstream mixed xylene rise, as well as downstream phthalic anhydride, plasticizer Market warming, this week o-xylene continued to rise, the short-term trend of o-xylene is expected to be stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

Xylene analysts from Business, Social and Chemical Branch believe that next week we will continue to focus on the trend of the Middle East situation, the progress of tariff imposition in Sino-US trade negotiations, and the European and American economies are worried about the expected fluctuation of demand for crude oil in the recession prospects. Due to the long-term holiday effect, the toluene market is expected to adjust its trend in a small way next week.

On September 26, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 69.95, down 0.12 points from yesterday, down 41.77% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), and up 44.47% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined. The market price of phthalic anhydride in eastern China has temporarily stabilized. The downstream factories are still in need of purchasing. Inventory of factories is still under pressure. High-end transactions are blocked. Recently, the inventories of factories have increased, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has temporarily stabilized. In East China, the mainstream of neighbouring French source negotiation is 7200-7400 yuan/ton, naphthalene method is 6800-6900 yuan/ton; in North China, the mainstream price of phthalic anhydride market is 7100-7200 yuan/ton, the price trend of most factories is stable, some factories have lowered their prices, the downstream start-up is not high, purchasing on demand is dominant, and wait-and-see mentality is mainstream. Concentrated, domestic phthalic anhydride plant operation is stable, phthalic anhydride spot supply is sufficient, phthalic anhydride price trend slightly declined.

In recent years, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride is 6700 yuan/ton. Due to the overhaul of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers, the supply of goods on site is tight, the price of o-phthalic anhydride remains high, the import market of o-phthalic anhydride in port area is stable, the recent market of o-phthalic anhydride in port is good, the stock of Negotiations are based on the recent increase in in in-site maintenance facilities for phthalic anhydride in China. The supply of in-site phthalic anhydride is very tight. Supported by the price of upstream raw material phthalic anhydride, the price trend of phthalic anhydride market is limited. Downstream DOP prices remained volatile, isooctanol prices remained stable, and DOP costs did not change much. DOP price is stable, DOP downstream demand is normal, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market volatility declines, DOP high-end transaction is blocked, DOP market mainstream transaction price 8050-8200 yuan/ton, downstream price trend is volatile, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to fall slightly later.

Price Trend

The average price of phosphoric acid was 5400 yuan/ton on September 20 and 5266.67 yuan/ton on September 16, up 2.53% compared with the same period last year, up 26.56%.

II. Market Analysis

Product: After the Mid-Autumn Festival, the market price of phosphoric acid is supported by the favorable raw material end, and the price has been raised. As of September 20, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was around 5400 yuan/ton, Hubei Xingfa Group quoted 5000 yuan/ton, Weng Fuzhou quoted 5200 yuan/ton, Beijing Hangxing Hongda quoted 5400 yuan/ton, Guangxi Mingli Group quoted 5800 yuan/ton, Qianrui Chemical quoted 4600 yuan/ton, Sichuan Kanglong Chemical quoted 5200 yuan/ton, Kunming South Yunnan industry and trade quoted 5900 yuan/ton. Price increases vary from place to place, mainly due to the shortage of spot supply of yellow phosphorus at the raw material end, the shift of trading focus, and the price increase of phosphoric acid enterprises supported by raw material yellow phosphorus. However, at present, phosphoric acid enterprises are mainly in need of purchasing, cautious wait-and-see mentality is rising, individual enterprises are in short supply, quotation is suspended, terminal market is just in need, purchasing is limited. Low enthusiasm, limited acceptance of high prices, phosphoric acid Market Trading atmosphere is not high, the overall weak.

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Industry chain: This week, the phosphorus ore market has not fluctuated and continues to operate steadily. At present, the phosphorus ore market is stable. Enterprises supply old customers’orders sporadically. The atmosphere of new orders is slightly weak. Some mining enterprises plan to stop production and reduce production. Recently, the market digests inventory mainly to reduce production and maintain stable quotation. Yellow phosphorus Market Spot tension, strong wait-and-see sentiment of enterprises, the focus continued to move upwards. Before National Day, the stock is nearing the end. Sporadic replenishment is mainly in the downstream. The net phosphorus turnover refers to about 18500-21000 yuan/ton. The market of downstream monoammonium phosphate continued to be weak, and the market prices continued to fall in mid-September. The domestic diammonium market continued to decline.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 36th week of 2019 (9.9-9.13), there were 1 rising commodities, 2 falling commodities and 2 falling commodities. The main commodities rising were yellow phosphorus (1.25%); the main commodities falling were monoammonium phosphate (-2.33%) and diammonium phosphate (-1.36%). Average gains and losses this week were -0.49%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Phosphoric acid analyst of Business Society Chemical Branch thinks: at present, the demand of phosphoric acid enterprises is mostly in a wait-and-see state, the procurement is not active, the price fluctuates with the good support of the raw material end, and it is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will mainly maintain stable management in the short term.