On October 21, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 88.75, unchanged from yesterday, 36.80% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 140.43 (2018-02-21), and 65.61% higher than the lowest point, 53.59, on November 30, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable. Up to now, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 9780 yuan / ton, and the operation rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. The enterprise reflects that the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid in the field is sufficient at present, and the goods in the hydrofluoric acid field can not be moved in the near future. Due to the lack of improvement in downstream demand, the prices of some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers are stuck, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid remains low. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is about 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the north market is 9000-10000 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid maintains a low level, the supply of spot goods is sufficient, but the demand is poor, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid maintains a low level of volatility.

The price of fluorite in the upstream market increased slightly. As of the 21st day, the price of fluorite was 2877.78 yuan / ton. The rising price of upstream raw materials has brought some good support to the hydrofluoric acid market. The market price of hydrofluoric acid is at a low level affected by the low price of raw fluorite. In the near future, the trading market of downstream refrigerants in the terminal market is general, and the domestic market price of refrigerant R22 remains low. From the perspective of market supply, the market price of refrigerant R22 continues to be weak, the manufacturer’s production device reduces the starting load, the market supply capacity has declined, and the inventory pressure has been slowed down. In terms of demand, the downstream air-conditioning manufacturers maintain the air-conditioner, and the demand only decreases but not increases. The main price of domestic large enterprises is 12000-14000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is at a low level, the unit operating rate of production enterprises remains at a low level, the market demand for refrigerants is reduced, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the transaction price in the market keeps falling, the merchants purchase on demand, the peak season ends, the downstream demand of the terminal only decreases but not increases, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market declines. However, the transaction price in the market is low, and businesses purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods, the downstream demand is not improved, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid remains low.

The transaction situation in the refrigerant market is poor, the unit operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low, the demand for the upstream hydrofluoric acid market is limited, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, but the manufacturer reflects that the loss is relatively serious, and Chen Ling, an analyst of the business agency, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may maintain a low level.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market continued to decline this week, with a decline of 4.06% within the week. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2850-3000 / ton; in Shandong, it is about 3050-3200 yuan / ton; in Hebei, it is about 3200-3250 yuan / ton; in Shaanxi, it is about 2750 yuan / ton; in Jiangsu, it is about 3050-3150 yuan / ton; in Zhejiang, it is about 3250-3350 yuan / ton. About 3300-3350 yuan / ton for delivery in South China.

II. Cause analysis

Product: this week, the domestic acetic acid market continued to decline, and the price of acetic acid continued to decline. Except for Tianjin Bohua and Jiangsu Thorpe, other acetic acid production enterprises were in normal production, with the overall operating rate maintained at about 90%, and the inventory of some enterprises gradually increased, and the stock pressure significantly increased. Therefore, the enterprises made more profits to ship out. Because the price of acetic acid decreased significantly, the production enterprises tended to Stable intention is obvious, but the downstream market is weak, and there is no obvious sign of recovery in the short term.

Industry chain: upstream, domestic methanol market fluctuated and adjusted in a week, with the market mainly on the sidelines, down 0.25% in a week. At present, about 2350 yuan / ton is not enough to support the price of acetic acid; domestic acetate and vinyl acetate and other industries are not satisfied with the terminal gas purchase, and the support is insufficient under the condition that the raw material acetic acid continues to be soft, and the soft operation is weak in a week; PTA Market vibrated and operated, and the downstream just needs to be flat. , the overall delivery intention is not high.

International: the North American acetic acid market was affected by the previous Celanese parking, the spot supply of acetic acid was tight, and it continued to rise in the week, with the current price of 620 US dollars / ton; the Asian acetic acid market was affected by the poor demand, and the price continued to fall in the week, with the current price of 390-440 US dollars / ton; the European acetic acid market supply declined, and the acetic acid price rose slightly in the week, with the current price of 665 euros / ton.

III. future forecast

According to the acetic acid analyst of the business agency, the domestic acetic acid price has fallen sharply in recent years, the stock pressure in the industry has gradually increased, the downstream demand has not recovered, and the export-side negotiations are flat, resulting in the continuous weakness of the acetic acid price due to multiple negative factors. It is expected that the domestic acetic acid market will continue to operate in a weak position in a short period of time.

I. price trend

According to the data of the commodity list of the business association, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong Province recently fell. The average price of formaldehyde on the 14th was 1296.67 yuan / ton, and the average price of formaldehyde on the 17th was 1280.00 yuan / ton, down 1.29%. The current price is 21.58% lower than last year.

II. Market analysis

Products: the price of formaldehyde in the domestic market has fallen. As of the 17th, the mainstream factory quotation in Hebei is about 1170 yuan / ton, the mainstream factory quotation in South China is about 1200 yuan / ton, the mainstream factory quotation in Shandong is about 1250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream factory quotation in Jiangsu is 1450 yuan / ton. The annual output of 120000 tons formaldehyde plant in Linyi Yinhe, Shandong Province has been restarted, with the formaldehyde content of 36.7-37%. Linyi Jinyuan Chemical has two formaldehyde production lines with an annual production capacity of 80000 tons and formaldehyde content of 37%. The plant has been restarted. Formaldehyde plant restart more, formaldehyde market stock up, formaldehyde factory mentality is empty, the price all the way down.

Industry chain: the upstream methanol is affected by the phenomenon of high inventory in the port, the delivery of methanol in the inland market is not smooth, and the delivery of upstream enterprises such as Inner Mongolia is general, the operators in the field are passive, and most traders wait and see. The price was 2356.00 yuan / ton on the 14th and 2330.00 yuan / ton on the 17th, down 1.08%. The downstream market demand is relatively stable, affected by the drop in supply and demand costs, formaldehyde prices fell.

III. future forecast

Recently, the upstream methanol has a large inventory in the site, and the phenomenon of high inventory in the port is hard to disappear in a short time. The overall trading atmosphere of the market is depressed. The methanol market continues to fall, and the cost side is insufficient. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of the business society predicted that the recent domestic formaldehyde price or overall decline is the main trend.

I. price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene in the external market has declined recently. The average price of ethylene on the 15th was 877.25 US dollars / ton, down 5.24% from 925.75 US dollars / ton at the beginning of the month. The current price is down 9.19% year on year.

II. Market analysis:

Product: ethylene has declined in recent days. Asian ethylene market prices fell in shock, as of 15 days, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $737-745 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $787-795 / ton. European ethylene market prices fell, as of 15 days, European ethylene market prices for FD northwest Europe closed at $1031-1042 / T, CIF northwest Europe closed at $937-946 / T. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region fell. As of the 15th, the price was US $435-447 / ton. Overall, the price of upstream crude oil fell for the second consecutive trading day, and the overall ethylene market fell. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

Industry chain: International: on October 15, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose to 52.81 US dollars / barrel, down 0.78 US dollars or 1.5% from the previous trading day, while Brent crude oil futures fell to 58.74 US dollars / barrel, down 1.0% or 0.61 US dollars from the previous trading day. According to the news, the latest estimate of the International Monetary Fund shows that the global economic growth rate is expected to drop to 3% this year. The drop in factory prices of Chinese industrial producers has also dampened the atmosphere in the international oil market. The cost support was weak, and the ethylene market fell. The price of downstream styrene continued to fall and the price of ethanol was consolidated, which could not support the price of ethylene, and had a downward trend.

3. Future forecast:

The International Monetary Fund warned that the trade war between the United States and China would reduce the global economic growth in 2019 to the lowest level since the financial crisis in 2008-2009, but the economy would rebound if the additional tariffs were removed. The next round of high-level economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States will affect the supply and demand changes in the crude oil market to be further observed. The market is mainly guided by the news, so the data analysts of the business agency expect that the ethylene price will keep a narrow range of shocks in the future.

I. price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China in early October was 2466 yuan / ton, while on October 15, the average price of nitric acid in East China was 2100 yuan / ton, down 14.86%.

II. Market analysis

Products: the price of concentrated nitric acid continued to decline. As of October 15, Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 2100 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton compared with the pre holiday offer; Anhui Jinhe offered 2100 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton compared with the pre holiday offer; Shandong helitai offered 2100 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton compared with the pre holiday offer. Anhui Audley offered 1950 yuan / ton, 650 yuan / ton lower than that before the festival; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offered 2200 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton lower than that before the festival. At present, the demand for nitric acid is not good, and the price of the negative manufacturers is constantly reduced.

Industry chain: liquid ammonia, the upstream raw material of nitric acid, fell first and then rose slightly in Shandong after the festival according to the monitoring of the business association; the price of aniline and TDI, the downstream products, remained stable last week compared with that before the festival. The market price of aniline in Shandong is 7600 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing is 7800 yuan / ton. The price trend of TDI in the East China market is up. On the 14th, the price of TDI in the East China market was 13100.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.29%.

III. future forecast

The demand of nitric acid market is light, and the nitric acid analyst of the business agency thinks that the nitric acid market may continue to decline.