I. price trend:

On November 8, crude benzene commodity index was 64.70, flat with yesterday, down 50.93% from 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 64.84% from 39.25, the lowest point on December 22, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

II. Market analysis:

This week (11.4-11.8), the domestic crude benzene market was slightly lower. The average price in the domestic market was 4145 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 4131.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.32%.

Domestic market: the crude benzol Market is slightly lower this week, down by about 100 yuan / ton. As of Friday, Shanxi’s offer is 3850-3950 yuan / ton, and Shandong’s offer is 4150-4200 yuan / ton. Affected by the decline of pure benzene expatriates before the rise, the transaction in the spot market of pure benzene this week was limited, which put pressure on the crude benzene market. The bidding price in the main production areas rose and fell in half this week, and the price fluctuated slightly. Although coking enterprises have strong strong strong price sentiment, but the operating rate of downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises has declined, with limited support for crude benzene.

Industrial chain: crude oil: pure benzene: this week, the atmosphere of pure benzene negotiation in East China is stronger, driving the market to be better. This week, the spot supply of pure benzene market was tight and the source of goods was concentrated. The port inventory continued to be less than 100000 tons, and the price of pure benzene was supported higher.

3. Trend forecast:

Next week, the favorable macro environment will provide support for the oil price. The supply pressure of pure benzene is high, and the price has some support. However, the weak downstream demand, coupled with the low demand for replenishment at the beginning of the month, the lack of sustained upward momentum in the market, and insufficient market support, the crude benzene industry chain will be dominated by weak shocks in the short term.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of Friday (November 8) this week, the average price of n-butanol in the mainstream region was 6116.67 yuan / ton (including tax), and the price in the mainstream region continued to fall by 1.61% compared with that on Friday (November 8). At present, the main quotation of n-butanol in China is about 6150-6600 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

Product: the n-butanol market continued to run weak this week. At the beginning of this week, the negotiation atmosphere of the n-butanol market was light, the market focus appeared a slow downward trend, and the new orders in the market were not smooth. In the middle of the week, the center of gravity of the n-butanol market fell, a small amount of goods in the northwest region were released, spot transactions in Shandong market were cold, coupled with the increase of the load of the n-butanol unit of the large factory, the shipping pressure of the large factory in Shandong increased, the pressure of the market supply was increased, the downstream market was also weak, the raw material procurement maintained rigid demand, waiting for the profit of the upstream factory, and then the Shandong market fell. East China’s market was weak, and the focus of negotiations fell with Shandong. At present, the overall supply of n-butanol market has recovered, the inventory of large factories has been gradually accumulated, and the market negative impact has been expanded. The market as a whole is still bearish and weak As of November 8, the quotation of Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. this week is relatively stable, with a slight adjustment of 100 yuan / ton compared with the quotation at the beginning of the week at the weekend. At present, the ex factory quotation of Wanhua in North China is 6100 yuan / ton, the ex warehouse quotation of East China is 6350 yuan / ton, and the ex warehouse quotation of South China is 6600 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the overall price of propylene market has increased in this week’s stability. As of November 7, the current market turnover is about 7230-7500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7300 yuan / ton. At present, the external supply of goods is not fully recovered, and the crude oil and PP market is still ideal, and propylene shipments are smooth, but the upward speed is relatively fast in the short term, so it is expected that the market price of propylene will remain stable and stable in recent days.

III. future forecast

According to the analysis of the data analyst of the business club, it is expected that the market of n-butanol will be affected by the demand of downstream butyl and other products, as well as the cautious attitude of customers, and the focus may continue to be explored in the short term.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of November 7, the latest price of cyclohexanone in China was 7366 yuan / ton, down 18.60% month on month and 42.82% year on year. The market of cyclohexanone in China is weak.

II. Market analysis

Products: at present, domestic cyclohexanone manufacturers have made it clear that there are not many offers. The shipping level of enterprises is around 7600-7800 yuan / ton. Most of them supply supporting downstream production demand, and the inventory level is low. The market of cyclohexanone in South China is weak. The price is 7800-7900 yuan / ton for negotiation. The demand for solvent procurement in the downstream is weak, and the intention tends to be near the low end. The supply of goods in the site is general, and the optimism is insufficient. The market of cyclohexanone in East China is relatively weak, and the negotiation reference is 7800-7900 yuan / ton. The main purchase intention tends to be low-end or lower, the trading atmosphere is relatively weak, the downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand, and the upstream small rebound has certain support.

Industrial chain: pure benzene: Asian pure benzene Market: in January, the intention of sales is 638-647 USD / ton FOB South Korea. Domestic pure benzene Market: the pure benzene Market in East China continues to rise, and the external market has been uplifted. The negotiation reference is 5350-5450 yuan / ton, some of the sales are slightly higher, and the far monthly negotiation is 5150-5200 yuan / ton, with a certain support for inventory decline.

Caprolactam: the US dollar market of caprolactam has been kept in order, the offers of merchants have been temporarily stable, the inquiry atmosphere of downstream factories is light, there are not many actual orders in the market, and the main market negotiation reference is 1330-1350 US dollars / ton. The caprolactam liquid market maintained consolidation, and the main real single negotiated price in East China market was 11300-11400 yuan / ton (delivered by acceptance within 6 months), stable. Caprolactam business offer is temporarily stable, the focus of market negotiation is low-end. Downstream just need to buy mainly, the market trading atmosphere is light.

III. future forecast

On the positive side, the price of pure benzene rose. On the negative side, the demand for solvent is insufficient; the price of enterprise is low. The supporting role of the upstream rise is reflected in a certain extent. The weakness of the downstream limits the rebound. According to the forecast of the cyclohexanone analysts of the business society, the short-term domestic market of cyclohexanone is dominated by consolidation.

On November 6, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 121.05, the same as yesterday, a record high in the cycle, 56.46% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

On June 6, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market was temporarily stable, the operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturer’s devices was stable, the delivery market of ammonium nitrate manufacturer was general, the downstream purchased on demand, and affected by environmental protection control, the domestic downstream civil explosive industry still stopped production more, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturer started construction limited, and the market price trend was temporarily stable. Up to now, the negotiation mainstream in Shaanxi Province is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, in Shandong Province is 2200-2300 yuan / ton, and in Hebei Province is 2300-2500 yuan / ton. Affected by environmental protection, some downstream manufacturers are forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate is at a low level, but the cost of raw materials is well supported, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is stable.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic nitric acid market continues to maintain a low level, and the quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu Province is 1600 yuan / ton. The quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Anhui is about 1650 yuan / ton. Shandong manufacturers offer 1650 yuan / ton, the price trend is weak. The delivery of nitric acid is general. The low price of nitric acid has a negative impact on the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. The market of liquid ammonia in the upstream domestic market is volatile, and the trend of some enterprises in Shandong is stable, and the price in the northwest region is declining. At present, the local ammonia scale is normal, especially the supply of some manufacturers in Shandong is relatively tight, but the price of manufacturers with large ammonia is stable Mainly, the main quotation in Shandong Province is 3000-3200 yuan / ton, and the main quotation in Hebei Province is 2950-3100 yuan / ton. The rise of liquid ammonia market has a certain positive impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. In the near future, the market of the downstream civil explosive industry has not changed much. The market demand for ammonium nitrate is limited. The inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is high, but the market price of raw materials remains high. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is generally stable due to the commodity market. Analysts of ammonium nitrate of business association think that in the near future, the market price of upstream raw material nitric acid remains low, and the downstream demand is still low, and it is expected that the market price of ammonium nitrate will remain stable in the later stage.

I. market price trend chart of polyformaldehyde

Price curve of POM

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of business association, on November 5, the average price of polyformaldehyde (96) in Shandong Province was 4783 yuan / ton, which was stable.

II. Market analysis

Products: Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30000 tons of polyoxymethylene. The factory quotation of Polyoxymethylene (96) is 4650 yuan / ton, including tax. The quotation is stable. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4700 yuan / ton, which is stable. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of polyoxymethylene, and the ex factory quotation of Polyoxymethylene (96) is 5000 yuan / ton, including tax; the manufacturer’s quotation is firm, and the downstream resin and pesticide demand is general.

Industrial chain: methanol in the upper reaches is mainly in weak operation since the beginning of November, and the methanol quotation was basically stable on November 5.

III. future forecast

The price of raw material methanol is weak. According to the analysis of POM in the business association, the price of POM may maintain stable operation.