1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of the business club’s large list, the market trend of powdered monoammonium fell slightly this week. The price at the beginning of the week was 1916 yuan / ton, and the price at the weekend was 1906 yuan / ton, down 0.52%.

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

Products: at present, 55% of the factory price of powdered ammonium in Hubei Province is 1800-2000 yuan / ton, 60% of the mainstream factory price of powdered ammonium is 1950-2100 yuan / ton, and some of the enterprises have equipment maintenance. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation. The ex factory quotation of 55% ammonium powder is 1800-1950 yuan / ton. The price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1850-2000 yuan / ton, which is stable. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is 1850-2000 yuan / ton.

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Industry chain: the market price of upstream raw phosphate rock is stable this week, and the volume of new single transaction is acceptable. The domestic price of sulfur remained stable. The demand of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises for monoammonium is still weak.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Analysts of monoammonium phosphate of business association think that the demand for monoammonium of compound fertilizer enterprises is flat, and the demand follow-up is insufficient. It is expected that the weak market of monoammonium phosphate will run in the later stage.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the weak trend of this week’s pure benzene is lower. The listing price of pure benzene on Friday is 5500-5950 yuan / ton, down 1.02% from 5700-5950 yuan / ton on Friday. The highest price of this week is from Monday to Wednesday, and the price is 5700-5950 yuan / ton.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

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1. Product: the port inventory of pure benzene this week is higher than that of last week. There is pressure on the delivery of Shandong local refining Co., Ltd. and the price has been lowered successively. With the increase of market arrivals, the expectation of merchants began to weaken and the market mentality was short. However, it is heard that Zhejiang Petrochemical has produced pure benzene, but it has not been sold to the outside world. It is reserved for trial run of styrene, which to some extent supports the price of pure benzene.

 

2. Crude oil: this week, the price of oil rose and fell, rising slowly, but falling sharply. Although oil prices ended in a light decline on the last day of 2019, the annual increase was still the largest in three years. Compared with December 27, WTI fell 0.81%, Brent fell 2.46%.

 

3. Downstream industry: the downstream profit level continues to be explored, the demand is weak, and the overall mentality is pessimistic.

 

Styrene continued to decline this week, down 1.61%. This week, the styrene market was light in terms of trading, mainly in terms of internal supply and contract issuance.

 

This week coincided with new year’s day, before and after the festival, aniline factory price cut to stimulate shipment, week down 2.53%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

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1. Crude oil: next week, affected by the situation in the Middle East, the oil price is likely to pick up next week, but the upward pressure is large.

 

2. Market: the port inventory rose for two consecutive weeks, and the downstream profit level continued to be worrying, so the market mentality was weak. Near the end of the year, it is necessary to pay attention to the transportation problems in the later period and the impact of low price of hydrogenated benzene on pure benzene.

 

In a comprehensive consideration, Sinopec has the possibility of lowering the listing price, and it is expected that pure benzene will continue to weaken slightly next week.

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According to statistics, the price trend of domestic rare earth market in 2019 shows a trend of “polarization”, and the price trend of domestic heavy rare earth market rises sharply, but the price of light rare earth market falls correspondingly. The price trend of some domestic rare earth products in 2019 is as follows:

 

As can be seen from the trend chart, the market price of heavy rare earth in 2019 has increased significantly. The market price of dysprosium oxide at the beginning of the year is 1210000 yuan / ton, and the market price at the end of the year is 1750000 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 44.63%; the market price of dysprosium metal at the beginning of the year is 1655000 yuan / ton, and the market price at the end of the year is 2125000 yuan / ton, with a year-round increase of 28.40%; the market price of dysprosium ferroalloy at the beginning of the year is 1220000 yuan / ton, with a year The final market price is 1720000 yuan / ton, an increase of 40.98% in the whole year. In 2019, the import of domestic heavy rare earth market is limited, and the increase of heavy rare earth products is large.

 

The price trend of young rare earth market in 2019 is declining. According to statistics, the market price of neodymium oxide at the beginning of the year is 314000 yuan / ton, and the market price at the end of the year is 286000 yuan / ton, with a year-round decline of 8.92%; the market price of praseodymium oxide at the beginning of the year is 397500 yuan / ton, and the market price at the end of the year is 342500 yuan / ton, with a year-round decline of 13.84%; the market price of neodymium oxide at the beginning of the year is 400500 yuan / ton, and the market price at The price of metal praseodymium at the beginning of the year is 660000 yuan / ton, and the market price at the end of the year is 650000 yuan / ton, with a year-round decrease of 1.52%; the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide at the beginning of the year is 317000 yuan / ton, and the market price at the end of the year is 284000 yuan / ton, a year-round drop of 10.41%; the market price of praseodymium neodymium alloy at the beginning of the year is 408000 yuan / ton, and the market price at the end of the year is 359000 yuan / ton, with a year-round drop of, The market price of light rare earth in China has declined to some extent.

 

It can be seen from the rare earth industry index chart and the price trend chart of rare earth products that the price trend of domestic light rare earth market can be roughly divided into three stages: the first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of April, and the light rare earth market price fluctuates and falls; the second stage is from May to the end of June, and the light rare earth market price ushers in a substantial rise; the third stage is the second half of 2019, and the light rare earth market price keeps falling. The price trend of domestic heavy rare earth market also has three stages: the first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of May, with heavy rare earth prices surging higher; the second stage is from the beginning of June to the end of October, with heavy rare earth prices slightly lower; the third stage is from the beginning of November to the end of November, with heavy rare earth prices rebounding higher.

 

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In the first stage, the domestic rare earth market saw ups and downs, and the price of heavy rare earth market was greatly increased by 63% due to the impact of Myanmar customs clearance. In addition, due to the decline of domestic production of ion-based rare earth ores, the on-site merchants were optimistic about the future market development, and the sources of goods were reluctant to sell, resulting in a sharp increase in the price of heavy rare earth market. However, in the first stage, the market price of light rare earth decreased correspondingly. The supply of light rare earth market was sufficient. In addition, the order quantity of downstream NdFeB was too small, and the start-up time was late, which led to less metal demand, so the oxide price was depressed, and the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide fell more than once.

 

In the second stage, the market price of light rare earth in China soared, and the price of light rare earth increased by as much as 30%. Under the strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in the general market input of rare earth oxides. Recently, the rare earth market has turned to the seller’s market, and the manufacturers have reasonably controlled the sales, and are reluctant to sell. In particular, the supply of some mainstream rare earth oxides is tight, and the price trend of rare earth market is rising. In the near future, large-scale enterprise groups in the market are reluctant to sell, and the market situation of rare earth market is improving. However, major manufacturers are also cautious in pricing products. In addition, in this stage, the import of rare earth fell, domestic enterprises were reluctant to sell, and some prices in the rare earth market rose sharply. In addition, the domestic environmental protection department recently issued the rectification requirements for the rare earth industry. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry shrank, and the market price of light rare earth rose sharply. However, the market price of heavy rare earth is slightly lower. Due to the customs clearance of Myanmar in September, the domestic market supply of heavy rare earth is greatly increased, and the market price of heavy rare earth is correspondingly lower.

 

In the third stage, the domestic market price of light rare earth continued to fall. The price fluctuation of rare earth market was related to the environmental protection supervision nationwide. The production of rare earth had particularity, especially some products had radiation hazards, which made the environmental protection supervision more strict. Metal enterprises and downstream magnetic material enterprises are weak in buying. In addition, the price of rare earth has declined compared with the previous period, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. Under the strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in the general market supply of rare earth oxides, especially some mainstream rare earth oxides, the supply is normal, and the market price trend of rare earth is declining. But in November, due to Myanmar’s unilateral customs suspension, the price of domestic heavy rare earth market rebounded. In addition, China has been adhering to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing to promote the development of domestic rare earth industry. It is willing to use rare earth resources and products to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world, play a positive role in promoting the development of China’s economy and the world economy, and make good use of rare earth products Exports, domestic heavy rare earth return to the upward trend.

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The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to release the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining and smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The Ministry of industry and information technology of China announced that the total amount of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2019 was 132000 tons and 127000 tons respectively, while the quota of rare earth mining in 2018 was 120000 tons, an increase of 12000 tons. Moreover, the data in 2019 is from The highest year since 2014. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology, together with relevant departments, drafted the development plan of new energy vehicle industry (2021-2035). After 15 years of continuous efforts, China’s core technology of new energy vehicles will reach the international leading level. By 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales will reach about 25%. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, and China’s domestic demand is expected to further improve The situation of domestic rare earth industry will be improved.

 

In 2019, the price trend of domestic rare earth market presents “polarization”, and the price of domestic heavy rare earth market rises sharply, but the price trend of light rare earth market goes down. In addition, the country is more and more serious in rectifying the rare earth industry, and the rare earth mining volume is also increased in 2019. In addition, the development of new energy vehicles is faster and faster. Chen Ling, rare earth analyst of business society, expects the development of rare earth industry in 2020 There will be some improvement. The domestic market price of heavy rare earth may maintain a high price, and the market price of light rare earth will also be affected by this.

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In 2019, the pattern of large-scale environmental protection has formed and entered the era of intensive cultivation, and in 2020, environmental supervision will be more normalized. In 2020, under the pressure of national supply side structural reform and environmental protection supervision, the construction of main coke enterprises, carbon black enterprises and tire enterprises in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi and other regions will be restricted to varying degrees.

 

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China is the largest producer of carbon black, but there is still a certain gap between the quality of carbon black and the international leading level. In the environment of overcapacity and vicious competition of low-quality carbon black, “win by quantity” is obviously not in line with the development law of carbon black market. In 2019, carbon black products in the domestic market fell into a loss, with an average profit of – 200 yuan / ton, the first decline in the past five years. Last year, the average profit was as high as 600-800 yuan / ton.

 

From 2020 to 2025, the market scale of special carbon black will increase at a compound annual growth rate of 8.1%.

 

One way out for the development of enterprises is to improve the ability of independent innovation, increase the R & D and investment of high-performance and special carbon black products

 

The growing demand for plastics, paints and coatings in the construction, packaging and automotive industries is a major driver of demand for specialty carbon black.

 

According to the application type, the special carbon black market is subdivided into plastic, ink, coating, etc. The plastic application field dominates the special carbon black market and is expected to remain the main application field in the forecast period. During this forecast period, the growth of special carbon black in plastic application is also expected to be the highest.

 

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According to the terminal application industry, the special carbon black market is divided into transportation, industry, construction, printing and packaging, etc. The printing and packaging industry has led the demand for special carbon black, which is expected to remain dominant in the forecast period due to the large demand from household products, food and beverage and pharmaceutical industries.

 

By region, in the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region will still be the world’s largest special carbon black market. The region’s remarkable economic development and growing disposable income have led to the expansion of end use industries such as construction, automobile, food and beverage, personal care and medical care. All these factors are driving the Asia Pacific region to dominate the global carbon black market.

 

There are two aspects to improve the independent innovation ability of carbon black Enterprises: first, carbon black enterprises need to change their business philosophy, increase the R & D and investment of low lag carbon black, conductive carbon black, pigment and other special carbon black needed by green tires, and improve the added value of carbon black products to adapt to the changing market demand; second, the continuous R & D of intelligent integration of carbon black production to continuously realize the domestic market demand The high-tech and market globalization of carbon black production technology focuses on strengthening brand building and improving international popularity.

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Review of aluminum ingot spot market in 2019

 

1. Domestic spot price trend in 2019

In 2018, the aluminum price bottomed out, and throughout 2019, the overall domestic aluminum price trend is upward. According to the data of business agency, as of December 30, 2019, the average market price of domestic standard aluminum ingots is 14520 yuan / ton, 13473.33 yuan / ton compared with the market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), up 7.77% in the year.

 

2. Brief introduction of domestic spot market by stages in 2019

 

Specifically, the annual spot aluminum ingot price trend is divided into seven stages:

 

The first stage: from January to the first ten days of February (before the lunar year), the downward market started in September 2018 was continued. The low price of aluminum ingots fluctuated, with the operating range of 13250-13500, and the operation of the low-level segment of the interval was the main one. The average market price on January 15 was 13223.33 yuan / ton, which was the valley value of the year. At this stage, the domestic aluminum price has touched the industry’s average cash cost line, and the operating pressure of some enterprises is close to the limit. The domestic aluminum industry began to start independent capacity removal. It is reported that in 2018, the capacity of electrolytic aluminum shut down in China has exceeded 3.2 million tons / year, of which about 80% shut down is concentrated in the second half of the year.

 

The capacity changes of some electrolytic aluminum enterprises in 2018-2019 are as follows: (click the hyperlink below, and you can see)

 

Capacity changes of some electrolytic aluminum enterprises in 2018-2019

 

The second stage: from the middle of February to the beginning of June, after the Spring Festival, the consumption of domestic aluminum ingots has improved. The market feedback that the demand side is good and the production capacity in the high cost area is reduced and the backward production capacity is eliminated initiatively begins to appear, supplemented by the information side bonus. For example, the Sino US trade negotiation is good, the domestic financial and monetary stimulus policies are frequent, and the market atmosphere is warmer.

 

2019 aluminum industry chain policy list (domestic part): (click the hyperlink below, you can see)

 

List of aluminum industry chain policies in 2019 (domestic)

 

However, in this stage, the main factor driving the price rise of aluminum ingots is the cost factor. In May, xijiaokou Xinfa and Xiaoyi Huaqing all stopped production due to red mud problems, and alumina raw materials were in short supply in China. The price suddenly rose to 3200, and the cost factor greatly pushed up the market price of aluminum ingots.

 

The third stage: from the beginning of June to the end of July, the aluminum oxide in the early stage rose sharply, obviously exceeding the bearing capacity of the downstream aluminum ingot manufacturers. The market gradually has price and no market, and just needs a small amount of procurement. After that, foreign Hyderabad resumed production, alumina import window opened, alumina market no longer, cost support no longer, superimposed peak season is not prosperous and the off-season is reduced, aluminum price quickly spit back the previous increase. According to the data of business agency, the average market price of aluminum ingots on July 3 was 13646.. 67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.06% compared with the average market price of aluminum ingots on May 27 of 14373.33 yuan / ton.

 

The fourth stage: from the beginning of August to the first ten days of September, about 1.5 million tons of operating capacity of Weiqiao in Shandong Province and Xinxing Xinfa in Xinjiang were reduced due to floods and electrolytic cell leakage accidents, respectively. The operating capacity of ABA aluminum plant in Sichuan Province and Guyang electrolytic aluminum plant in Inner Mongolia was also reduced due to accidents. The domestic operating aluminum capacity was greatly reduced, the social inventory was obviously moved down, the superimposed consumption was in the peak season, and the effects of both sides of supply and demand were overlapped Plus, push aluminum prices up rapidly. According to the data of business agency, on September 13, the average market price of aluminum ingots was 14563.33 yuan / ton, and the price of domestic spot aluminum ingots rose to 14500 for the first time in 2019.

 

The fifth stage: from late September to mid October, the aluminum price trend is good, and the industry’s profit holding level continues to improve. In the early stage, the replacement capacity and new capacity are put into production, and some of the production capacity has also begun to resume production, especially in the southwest and inner Mongolia regions, where the aluminum capacity is received, with frequent news, and the aluminum ingot price under pressure.

 

The sixth stage: from late October to early December, the price of aluminum ingots continued to fluctuate in the first line of 14000, with supply and demand basically balanced, and the multi empty game intensified. On the one hand, the social inventory moved down significantly, and the supply was tight, on the other hand, the market expected more production capacity.

 

The seventh stage: in late December, since December 16, the price of aluminum ingots has ushered in the third wave of small rise in the year. According to the data of business agency, the average market price of aluminum ingots on December 26 is 14600 yuan / ton, the peak value in 2019, and the price of domestic spot aluminum ingots is 14500 for the second time in 2019.

 

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Analysis of electrolytic aluminum industry chain

 

1. Overview of the upstream and downstream of electrolytic aluminum industry chain

 
It is reported that alumina and coal power account for about 80% of the cost of electrolytic aluminum. According to historical data and industry experience, alumina price is about 17.8% of electrolytic aluminum price.

 

2. Price trend of electrolytic aluminum industry chain products in 2019

 

(1) Price trend of aluminum and power coal in 2019

 
(2) Price trend of aluminum and aluminum fluoride in 2019

 
(3) Price trend of aluminum and cryolite in 2019

 
(4) Price trend of aluminum and caustic soda (related to alumina production) in 2019

 
As can be seen from the figure above, the price of electrolytic aluminum in 2019 has little correlation with the price of auxiliary materials, and the factors that have a large impact on the price are mainly reflected in the price change of raw aluminum oxide and the factors of supply and demand.

 

3. Expected increase of alumina production

 

The most upstream bauxite supply, Australia, China, Guinea, Brazil and India account for 86.3% of global production. In recent years, the supply of domestic bauxite is relatively tight due to environmental protection problems, but overseas bauxite is rich in energy and has a large window for import.

 

In 2019, the annual capacity of alumina is expected to increase by about 2.5 million tons. In 2020, 6.2 million tons of new capacity is expected to be put into operation. At present, the capacity under construction in China is up to more than 10 million tons.

 

Data list of supply and demand over the years

 

1. Supply and demand data of electrolytic aluminum in recent 7 years

In the past seven years, the domestic production of electrolytic aluminum increased first and then decreased, mainly due to the supply side reform of policy (2018) and the independent capacity reduction of the industry (2019). In 2018-2019, the aluminum plant was shut down and replaced. In the second half of 2019, due to unexpected shutdown, the supply end shrank significantly. It is expected that the output in 2019 will decrease by 1.5-1.6%. At present, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China continues to move down significantly, and it is expected to decrease by 580000-590000 tons in 2019.

 

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2. The growth of production and consumption of electrolytic aluminum in the past 7 years

 
The data shows that the supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum are weak in recent two years, the domestic market is basically balanced, and the spot pressure is not big.

 

3. Trend of net export volume of electrolytic aluminum in recent 7 years

 
Expectation of electrolytic aluminum in 2020

 

1. Policy: favorable tariff

 

Since January 1, 2020, 107 items of goods, such as ferrochrome, will continue to be subject to export duties. The export tax rate or provisional export tax rate will be applied. The scope and tax rate of the goods will remain unchanged (see the official website of the Ministry of Finance for details). According to table 4, the tax rate of electrolytic aluminum and its downstream products has been greatly reduced.

 

2. Demand side may pick up

 

The recovery of domestic automobile industry and real estate industry will drive downstream aluminum consumption, and the overall supply pattern is expected to be better in China. In addition, aluminum for consumer goods industry and ultra-high pressure aluminum will become the growth point in 2020.

 

To sum up, electrolytic aluminum market will continue to recover in the near future in 2020, and the price operation range is expected to be 14000-15000 yuan / ton in the year.

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