1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the price trend of TDI market in this week is stable. The average price of East China market in this week is 11100 yuan / ton, which is stable compared with last week, down 17.37% year-on-year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: this week, the domestic TDI market narrowed and weakened, the downstream current construction situation is not optimistic, the demand for raw materials is limited, the pressure of the industry’s shipment is large, the actual shipment order negotiation is low, and the factory policy is waiting. By the end of the 13th, the market in North China has been stabilized and sorted out, and the attitude of the operators is mainly wait-and-see. The weak market in East China has been followed up, and the atmosphere in the market is cold. The quotation of the operators is stable and wait-and-see. The quotation of domestic goods with tickets is 10500-10700 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with tickets is 10900-11000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: in terms of toluene, although domestic enterprises have gradually entered the resumption period, and market demand has gradually improved, domestic toluene prices still follow the decline due to the sharp drop in international crude oil prices and the sharp drop in market prices in South Korea, the main source of toluene imports. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 4500 yuan / ton, the demand for toluene is lack, the terminal consumption is slow, and the market price is stagnant.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, the TDI market is weak, the downstream construction situation is not optimistic, the atmosphere in the market is relatively cold, the overall offer of the industry is stable, the downstream demand is weak, and the transaction volume is insufficient. It is expected that TDI market will wait and see in the later stage and pay attention to the factory news.

1、 Market price trend of POM

Price curve of POM

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of polyformaldehyde (96) in Shandong this week is 4600 yuan / ton, which is stable.

2、 Market analysis

Products: Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4600 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4500 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4700 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. The price of POM manufacturers is mainly firm, and the market demand is general.

Industry chain: upstream methanol situation, pessimistic methanol market fell sharply, domestic methanol market fell sharply this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market was 1962 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, it was 1842 yuan / ton, down 6.11% in the week.

3、 Future forecast

Polyoxymethylene analysts believe that: upstream methanol prices down, polyoxymethylene prices may be lowered.

Commodity index: on March 12, the polyaluminium chloride commodity index was 105.41, down 1.35 points from yesterday, down 3.30% from the highest point of 109.01 (2019-08-28), and up 4.47% from the lowest point of 100.90 on December 19, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Market: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), in March 2020, the proportion of poly aluminum chloride (solid, content ≥ 28%) manufacturers returning to work continued to rise. The mainstream quotation in the domestic market: poly aluminum chloride solid (industrial level, content ≥ 28%) with tax quotation of about 1750-2200 yuan / ton, liquid (industrial level, content 10% – 12%) with tax quotation of about 390-450 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s delivery gradually recovered Reply. Enterprises with high inventory generally dump goods after the start of construction, and the quotation is slightly reduced, and most manufacturers’ quotation is relatively stable.

Upstream and downstream: after the Spring Festival holiday and delayed resumption of work, the price of hydrochloric acid in the domestic market is generally stable. In February, the price of hydrochloric acid market manufacturers was average, and the price in North China was about 243.33 yuan / ton temporarily. Due to the general market situation of upstream liquid chlorine and weak support of hydrochloric acid, downstream dyes, calcium chloride and chloroethane still mainly purchase hydrochloric acid according to early demand, and the pressure of hydrochloric acid delivery is relatively large.

Downstream: according to the manufacturer, the water treatment project is still under construction, and the demand is still recovering. The polyaluminium manufacturer is under normal operation, but the current demand is not so much, and it will take time to recover.

Industry: in late July 2019, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production suspension, which requires that: according to the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution and future pollution weather, the municipal office requires all deep treatment enterprises to stop production and treatment before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the office. The production was resumed for ten days in August and stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the shutdown was more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection was strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi were required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from now until January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution control. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production. During the Spring Festival holiday from January to February 20, 2020, the relevant enterprises in the main production area stop production and delay to return to work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area returned to work one after another. At present, the logistics gradually recovered in March, and the transportation cost has returned to normal. Before the year, the inventory was still in consumption. Some enterprises with higher inventory had slightly lower prices.

Future forecast: the analysis of the business community shows that although the impact of the current epidemic has not been lifted, the resumption of work in various regions continues to improve, and the downstream demand for polyaluminium chloride will increase with the continuous improvement of the situation, and will wait for some time. The current supply of the manufacturer is sufficient, the return to work and production of the water treatment enterprises in Henan, the main production area, is in good condition, the initial inventory is high, the upstream cost is stable and the demand is general, the market situation of polyaluminium in the future will be temporarily stable, and the price concessions that the manufacturer will make to accelerate the inventory consumption will not be excluded.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin:

(Figure: epichlorohydrin product p value curve )

2、 Market analysis:

Product: according to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market of epichlorohydrin has fallen again and again recently. The terminal demand is low, the production factory’s shipment is blocked, the inventory is under pressure, the manufacturer’s intention of low delivery is enhanced, the new single offer offers the profit for shipment actively, the negotiation center keeps falling, the downstream start-up load is low, the enthusiasm for market operation is not high, and the on-site wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. As of the 9th, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 10500 yuan / ton, down 13.93% compared with March 1st and 25.88% compared with January 1st. At present, the main quotation of epichlorohydrin market in China is about 9500 ~ 11000 yuan / ton.

On March 9, the epichlorohydrin commodity index was 74.15, down 6.59 points from yesterday, down 44.54% from 133.71 (2019-10-29), and up 58.27% from 46.85, the lowest point on September 7, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Industrial chain: on March 9, the market price of propylene in Shandong Province remained stable. On September 9, the market turnover was still between 6600-6800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was between 6600-6650 yuan / ton. Now affected by OPEC meeting, international crude oil plummeted, and some chemical futures market also fell sharply. Now, due to the low production and inventory of propylene plant and the shortage of market supply, the propylene market is still stable on September 9. However, due to the impact of upstream and downstream, the propylene price is expected to decline, and the strength is not small. Downstream epoxy resin, double raw materials fell together, the cost support weakened, and the terminal demand is poor, the production enterprise shipment is not smooth, the market trading atmosphere is weak, and the actual single operation is limited.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business association, the downstream start-up load is low, the demand side is weak, and the market lacks the support of strong positive factors. It is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market will be weak and put into operation to release the inventory pressure.

On March 8, the fluorite commodity index was 110.33, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.46% from 127.49 (2019-01-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 124.20% from 49.21, the lowest point on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to statistics, the price trend of fluorite in China has increased significantly. As of the 9th day, the average price of fluorite in China is 3366.67 yuan / ton. Recently, the operation rate of fluorite plant in China is relatively low, the part of mine and flotation plant in the site has not been started yet, and the supply of fluorite in the site is very tight. Recently, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream has increased slightly. For the purchase on demand in fluorite market, the goods in the fluorite field are in good condition, and the market price of fluorite is good The trend has risen sharply. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is tight, and the downstream of the terminal is purchased on demand, resulting in higher market price. As of September 9, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 3200-3400 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 3300-3500 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 3300-3500 yuan / ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 3300-3500 yuan / ton. The price trend of fluorite rose sharply.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in the downstream of fluorite slightly increased. As of 9 days, the price of hydrofluoric acid Market in China was 11500 yuan / ton. The price rise of hydrofluoric acid market has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, in the near future, the operation of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, the demand for fluorite is normal, and the enterprise has not yet started construction, the supply of goods in the site is relatively tight, and the price of fluorite is significantly higher. In the near future, the transaction market of downstream refrigerants of the terminal has increased. At present, the automobile industry is gradually back to work. The supply of R22 in China is tight. The price trend of domestic refrigerants R22 market is rising slightly. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production units is still not high. The supply of goods in the market is general. The downstream air-conditioning manufacturers are gradually starting to work. The demand changes little. The price mainstream of domestic large enterprises rises to 16500-1850 0 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market is temporarily stable, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is average. At present, the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, and the price remains stable. The downstream purchase is still on demand. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is slightly higher, and the downstream market is slightly higher. In addition, the recent price of hydrofluoric acid market is higher, so the fluorite market is favorable Support prices to rise substantially.

On the whole, the market of downstream refrigerant industry rose slightly, the supply of fluorite was tight, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly in the near future. Chen Ling, an analyst of business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may continue to rise.