In the second half of July, the polyethylene market did not rise and opened a downward channel. LLDPE, LDPE and HDPE in East China all showed different degrees of decline. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the decline range of the three major PE varieties ranged from 50 to 450 yuan / ton, of which the decline of LDPE in East China was the most prominent, with a decrease of 3.18% during the period (7.16-27).

Average price range of regional varieties and specifications on July 16 and July 27

East China LLDPE 7042 7416.67 yuan / ton 7216.67 yuan / ton – 2.70%

LDPE 2426h 9037.50 yuan / ton ￥ 8750.00 yuan / ton – 3.18% in East China

HDPE 5000S 8300.00 yuan / ton ￥ 8100.00 yuan / ton – 2.41% in East China

In the second half of July, the PE market mainly fell. With the restart of Zhongtian and Zhongsha devices, the operating rate rose, and the market supply increased compared with the previous period. At this time, the downstream was in the off-season. Under the influence of social and public health events, the factory operating rate was low, the demand was general, and the enthusiasm of entering the market was not high. Liansu futures has an obvious downward trend, which affects the mentality of the spot market. Manufacturers have lowered the factory price, polyethylene trend is weak. Business mentality is general, follow the decline mainly.

In terms of supply, the supply pressure increased during the week (7.17-24), the average operating rate of PE enterprises increased by more than 3%, the output increased by 14000 tons, and the maintenance volume decreased by 21200 tons. In terms of demand, the downstream agricultural film operation rose by 0.3% month on month, and the operating rate this week was 18.1%, while the packaging film operation decreased slightly, ranging from 0.1% to 67.1%.

In terms of futures, the price of plastic futures rebounded due to the supply pressure of the spot market and the impact of macro sentiment. The main plastic contract rose 0.21% on Monday (July 20), and then showed a downward trend for four consecutive days. As of the end of Friday (July 24), the price of plastic futures fell 145 within the week.

At present, the weakness of futures has affected the mentality of the spot market, and the maintenance of petrochemical plants’ devices has gradually recovered. Recently, the market supply pressure has increased, the downstream demand is general, and the import volume is low. In the short term, the market is still expected to fall.

This week (7.20-24), the trend of domestic liquid ammonia market was divided, and the price of some regions went down by a large margin. For example, the price of Shandong, the main production area, dropped sharply, and Hebei followed the Shandong market. According to the monitoring of the business agency, in Shandong area, the drop rate of liquid ammonia is about 300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market quotation is 2500-2700 yuan / ton. According to business agency monitoring, the decline in Shandong was – 5.23%

Specifically:

The price of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province dropped sharply this week, and some large factories reduced their quotation of 300 yuan / T this week. The main reason is that the temporary overhaul of the 800000 ton urea plant of the plant led to a large number of liquid ammonia shipment. Affected by the rising inventory pressure, the liquid ammonia in Shandong gradually accumulated, and the supply continued to increase, leading to a certain supply pressure for enterprises. In addition, the downstream rigid procurement is the main, and the seasonal off-season support for the market is insufficient, and the superimposed impact on the price is obviously lower.

In other regions, the trend of differentiation, regional reasons, Hebei region followed the Shandong market, the price of Shandong region went down, and Hebei market followed. The range is about 200 yuan / ton. Large factories are shipping normally. A small amount of Cangzhou units are currently being shipped. The liquid ammonia volume in the region maintains a basic balance between supply and demand. As of the end of the week, the quoted price is 2650-2800 yuan / ton. In Northeast China, the downstream purchasing strength is fair. Due to the maintenance of some large plants, the amount of ammonia in the region is reduced, and the price is relatively firm. Therefore, the price difference between Shandong and Hebei is about 200 yuan, and the current price is 2800-3000 yuan / ton.

In the future, the business agency believes that the trend of liquid ammonia market is divided this week, and the decline in Shandong is obvious, but most manufacturers have stabilized their prices on Friday. Prices have also bottomed out. It is expected that with the resumption of production of some urea plants in the market next week, the ammonia quantity in Shandong can be effectively controlled, and the price may stabilize and rebound. Other regions, such as Hebei, are also expected to rise. Affected by the balance of supply and demand, the price of liquid ammonia in Northeast and Northwest China is likely to maintain stability.

As of July 22, the average price of acetic acid in East China was about 2626 yuan / ton, up 12.57% compared with 2333 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 17.44% higher than the same period of last month. At present, there are 2600-2650 yuan / ton in Shandong, 2550-2650 yuan / ton in Jiangsu, 2700-2800 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, 2350-2470 yuan / ton in Henan, 2550-2600 yuan / ton in Hebei and 2200 yuan / ton in Northwest China.

Unit capacity (10000 t / a) unit output (T / D)

Yankuang Guotai 110.3000

Hualu Hengsheng 50.1500

Yangtze BP 50 1000

Jiangsu Sopu 120 normal production

Jiantao, Hebei, 50.1400

Tianjin Bohai Chemical Co., Ltd. started 70% of the project

Henan Shunda 40.1400

Longyu, Henan 50.1000

Henan Yima 25 parking

Shaanxi Yanchang 30.1000

Shanghai Huayi 70.1800

Anhui Huayi 50.1300

Dalian Hengli 35.1100

At present, the overall supply of acetic acid Market in East China and North China has basically recovered. On July 21, Henan Longyu dropped the negative briefly, driving the price up slightly. Shandong Yankuang followed the rise, but other enterprises have not yet completed new orders. Therefore, the overall market price did not fluctuate greatly. In addition, the demand in the downstream market was weak, and the acetic acid spot supply was expected to increase, which resulted in insufficient support Due to the limited impact of logistics and transportation, the supply of goods in the region is limited, and the price of acetic acid is strong. With the arrival of ships in the near future, this situation will be alleviated, and the price is expected to be weak in the future.

In terms of the upstream market, the methanol market continued to soften, some maintenance units were resumed and restarted in the early stage, and the supply side was expected to increase in the near future; some downstream enterprises had high inventory, and the downstream market was weak in chasing high prices, and the overall transaction atmosphere turned weak, with the current price of about 1635 yuan / ton. In terms of downstream, the downstream industries of acetic acid, such as vinyl acetate and acetate, started in general, the demand of downstream market was limited, the market transaction was insufficient, and the situation of oversupply was intensified, which was negative for the price support of acetic acid.

In terms of international market, the supply of acetic acid Market in Asia gradually increased with the recovery of maintenance manufacturers, but the demand of downstream market was still in stock, with the current quotation of about 270-310 US dollars / ton; the European market demand was weak, and the transaction situation was not optimistic, about 540 Euro / ton; the North American market situation of oversupply continued, at present about 450 US dollars / ton.

The acetic acid analysts of the business society believe that the domestic acetic acid market is stabilizing, and the fluctuation of some enterprises’ devices has little impact on the overall supply. The market supply is sufficient, and the wait-and-see atmosphere in the industry is relatively strong. With the increase of supply expectation, the lack of support at the cost end and the low demand in the downstream, the acetic acid market is still likely to decline in the long run.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of July 21, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 5133.33 yuan / ton. The market price of DMF rose steadily, the price increased, and the focus of negotiation shifted upward. Compared with the same period last month, the price of DMF increased by 7.32%, 5.12% compared with the same period last week, and 2.67% higher than that of July 20, with an increase of about 400 yuan / ton.

As of July 21, Luxi Chemical Industry quoted 5100 yuan / ton, Zhangqiu Riyue 5200 yuan / ton, Hualu Hengsheng 5400 yuan / ton, Anyang Jiutian 5200 yuan / ton, Shaanxi Xinghua 5250 yuan / ton, Guangdong 5650 yuan / ton, Jiangsu Province Regional 5400 yuan / ton, Zhejiang 5500 yuan / ton, East China market 5350-5500 yuan / ton, South China market 5500-5700 yuan / ton.

The upstream methanol is running weakly and stably, mainly on demand purchase, insufficient gas purchase, little inquiry, and different mentality of traders. At present, South China, East China, Northeast China, stable operation, Hebei, Shanxi and other regions show a downward trend.

On July 20, the chemical index was 658 points, unchanged with yesterday, 35.24% lower than 1016 points (2012-03-13), and 10.03% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

DMF business agency analysts believe: in the short term, DMF market prices rise narrowly, the focus of the negotiations moved up. (the above prices are provided by major DMF manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business DMF analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

1、 Price trend

The factory price of octanol in Shandong Province fell this week. This week, the average price of octanol mainstream factory quotation in Shandong decreased from 7116.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7016.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.41%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.48%. Overall, octanol market fell this week, with the octanol commodity index of 51.59 on July 17.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the main octanol manufacturers in Shandong Province dropped their factory quotations this week: Jianlan Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 7100 yuan / ton of octanol at the end of this week, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; lihuayi’s offer of octanol was 6900 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was 200 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng’s offer of octanol was 7050 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was 100 yuan lower than that at the beginning of the week/ Tons.

Judging from the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of octanol fell slightly this week, with the quotation falling from 6781.82 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6728.18 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.79%, and a decrease of 15.33% compared with the same period last year. Upstream raw material market prices fell, affected by the supply and demand side, had a negative impact on octanol prices.

Octanol downstream market, DOP factory price fell this week. DOP quotation fell from 7166.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7033.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.86%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.05%. Downstream customers’ enthusiasm for octanol procurement declined, octanol demand was general, and the decline of DOP price had a negative impact on octanol market. After the market operators more watch the trend of DOP.

3、 Future forecast

In late July, the market trend of octanol in Shandong was mainly fluctuating and falling. The upstream propylene price fell slightly, the cost support was weak, the downstream DOP market began to fall, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was weak. Octanol analysts believe that: in late July, under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, the octanol market in Shandong may decline slightly.