1、 Price trend of sodium pyrosulfite in China

According to the monitoring of the business association, the domestic sodium pyrosulfite price continued to run at the bottom this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 1676.67 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 1676.67 yuan / ton, with a rise or fall of 0.

2、 Market analysis

Products: in April, with the start-up of domestic production enterprises, the domestic sodium metabisulfite inventory continues to increase, while the downstream demand continues to be weak, and the upstream and downstream trade subjects have a strong wait-and-see attitude. In April, some enterprises once again slightly reduce the factory offer, and the market price of domestic industrial grade sodium metabisulfite is reduced to 1600-1750 yuan / ton. (the above prices refer to the foreign quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, some of which are temporarily out of their scope, and the prices are only for reference, not related to the final pricing of the manufacturer. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation).

Industrial chain: in April, domestic soda ash and sulfur prices are relatively stable, raw material costs remain low, downstream demand remains weak, and sodium metabisulfite prices are under pressure.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the market supply is strong and demand is weak, and the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to move forward at the bottom in the short term.

In March, affected by the irrational decline of international crude oil, the price of the gas market as a whole fell, and the market never recovered. In March, the decline of LPG was 26.85%, that of liquefied propane was 26.7%, and that of dimethyl ether was 14.87%. However, liquefied natural gas (LNG) was the only red spot in the collective decline of the gas market, with an overall increase of 7.42% in March.

After two consecutive months of decline in LNG market, it was finally clear that the downstream resumption rate was significantly increased in March, the demand for liquefied natural gas recovered, and the price rebounded. On the one hand, the opening of domestic transportation bottlenecks has cleared the obstacles for the LNG market, and the LNG shipment has gradually increased. What’s more, with most of the downstream manufacturers returning to work, the demand has increased, providing support for the price of liquefied natural gas, the price pushing psychology of the manufacturers is obvious, the domestic liquefied natural gas market continues to rise, and the rising trend starts to slow down in the middle of the year. In the middle and late ten days, urban pipeline gas replenishment continued to decrease, demand growth slowed down, LNG began to callback, prices fell, erasing some of the previous gains.

In the later stage, the Business Association believes that in April, the heating in the northern region began to end one after another. As the heating demand in the downstream of natural gas gradually decreased, China’s LNG market gradually entered the off-season. In addition, at present, the import gas has been making profits continuously, which has impacted the domestic LNG market. The pressure of liquid factory’s delivery is large, and the inventory is on the high side. It is expected that LNG will still have a downward trend in the short term.

 
In March, the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market was greatly affected by the crude oil slump, mainly following the decline. At the beginning of the month, the average price of the domestic liquefied gas market was 3700 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 2706.67 yuan / ton, with a drop of 26.85% in the price within the month, 32.28% lower than the same period last year. At the beginning of the month, although the CP price fell in March, it fell less than expected, which brought certain benefits to the market. Coupled with the rebound of international crude oil, downstream market access improved, manufacturers shipped smoothly, and prices rose slightly. But then crude oil plummeted, and the market was in a bad mood. The downstream markets withdrew one after another to wait and see. In the middle of the month, crude oil plummeted again, hitting the market obviously, manufacturers kept making profits, and the shipment situation slightly improved. Then, with the retaliatory rebound of crude oil and the growth of market demand, the LPG market ushered in the rising market again. However, the positive results are limited. At the end of the month, with the crude oil exploring again, and under the influence of the sharp fall of CP price expectation in April, liquefied gas turned back to the downward trend again. At present, although the terminal demand has improved, it has not fully recovered, and the contradiction between market supply and demand is still in progress. However, at present, liquefied gas has fallen to a relatively low level, and manufacturers have an obvious mentality of protecting the market. The trend in April may be expected to rise.

As a pure product, liquefied propane continued to decline in March. At the beginning of the month, the average price of propane market was 3717.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 2725 yuan / ton, with a drop of 26.7% in the month. The price was 35.08% lower than that of the same period last year. The main reason for the decline is due to the impact of crude oil, and the expectation of CP in April keeps falling, which continuously depresses the mentality of the industry. The later shipment situation of the manufacturer is light, and the price is constantly lowered to make profits. But during this period, the downstream continued to wait and see, with a more cautious attitude. At present, affected by seasonal factors, with the gradual warming of the weather, the propane market demand is expected to decrease. But at present, the price has been at a low level, and there is little room to fall. The propane market is expected to rise to a certain extent in April.

Dimethyl ether is a kind of coal chemical raw material, flammable gas, which is a new type of energy converted from coal. Now it is mostly used for mixing liquefied gas. In March, the market of dimethyl ether continued to bottom out, during which it rebounded twice, but the momentum was insufficient, and the overall market still fell. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic DME market was 3003.33 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 2556.67 yuan / ton, with a drop of 14.87% in the month, 24.36% lower than the same period last year. In March, the operating rate of dimethyl ether was about 10%, and the market trading atmosphere remained depressed, which was hard to change. The international crude oil fell sharply this month, which significantly depressed the liquefied gas market. Although the demand for civil gas increased this month, the range was relatively limited, mainly following the broad decline of crude oil. However, there is no difference in the price of gas ether, and the demand for dimethyl ether decreases. The market of cost methanol continued to decline in March. Affected by the emergency safety events, the downstream demand of domestic methanol spot market recovered slowly, especially the traditional downstream market. However, after the middle of March, the impact of the development of foreign public health events, the continuous drop of foreign financial market triggered the circuit breaker, the pressure of the surrounding environment, the wide drop of methanol, and many new lows in the year. Some regional production enterprises have touched the new low And production lines or losses. Affected by the weakness of civil gas and cost methanol, the market of dimethyl ether rebounded twice this month, and it was difficult to reverse the situation and continue the decline. It is expected that if the LPG market rises significantly in April, it will give a boost to the DME market.

On April 6, the rare earth index was 334, the same as yesterday, 66.60% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 1000 (2011-12-06), and 23.25% higher than the lowest point, 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium in rare earth metals decreased by 2500 yuan / ton to 360000 yuan / ton, 2325000 yuan / ton and 635000 yuan / ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide in rare earth oxide decreased by 1000 yuan / ton to 262500 yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium oxide was 1795000 yuan / ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide decreased by 5000 yuan / ton to 305000 yuan / ton; the average price of neodymium oxide decreased by 2500 yuan / ton to 282000 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy decreased by 2000 yuan / ton to 332500 yuan / ton; the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 1795000 yuan / ton.

In the rare earth market, the price trend of rare earth continued to fall, and the domestic heavy rare earth market was well supplied. Myanmar unilaterally closed the customs clearance port, but the domestic manufacturers continued to resume work, the domestic supply increased, and the domestic heavy rare earth price trend continued to fall. The reduction of orders in the rare earth terminal industry is transmitted to the reduction of demand for upstream rare earth raw materials. In addition, domestic metal factories and downstream enterprises mostly maintain on-demand procurement, and the overall transaction situation of market orders is weak. Some upstream businesses are actively shipping, and the quotation of upstream businesses is gradually moving down. In recent years, the demand for permanent magnet has declined, the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products has been slightly lower, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth has weakened in recent years, and some market prices have continued to decline. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controlled the sales, but in the near future, the downstream demand declined, and some rare earth prices fell.

According to the Ministry of industry and information technology and other documents, by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for about 25%. Global electrification is stepping into the acceleration period of high-quality models at the supply side. China’s double point policy and European carbon emission requirements have established a long-term development mechanism for new energy vehicles. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, domestic demand in China has improved, and the price of heavy rare earth in domestic rare earth market remains high. Recently, the Ministry of natural resources and the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the issuance of the total amount control index (the first batch) for the exploitation of rare earth ores and tungsten ores in 2020, which clarified that the total amount control index for the exploitation of the first batch of rare earth ores (rare earth oxide REO) in China is 66000 tons, and the total amount control index for the exploitation of tungsten concentrate (65% of tungsten trioxide) is 52500 tons. The national policy is conducive to the balance of supply and demand of rare earth industry. In the near future, the downstream demand is not good, and the market price continues to fall.

Rare earth analysts of business agency expect the supply of domestic heavy rare earth market to be normal in the near future, and the downstream demand to be weakened. But recently, Lynas group, the largest rare earth producer outside China, Australia’s rare earth miner, is the largest in the world On March 31, Corp said it would follow the Malaysian government’s order to extend the closure time of Malaysian factories for two weeks to April 14, and expected the momentum of the rebound of rare earth market prices in the later period.

On April 3, the PX commodity index was 34.40, which was the same as yesterday, setting a new low in the cycle, 66.41% lower than the highest point of 102.40 on February 28, 2013. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 till now)

According to statistics, the market price trend of p-xylene in China is temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun is stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou is stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi is started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang is started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant is overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical is put into operation, other units are temporarily stable, and the operation rate of domestic p-xylene plant is stable In about 70%, the domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On April 2, the closing price of PX market in Asia increased by 19 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 439-441 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 459-461 US dollars / ton CFR China. More than 40% of PX in China needs to be imported. Recently, driven by the rise of crude oil price, the external price of PX rose, while the market price trend of PX was stable.

As of the 2nd day, WTI crude oil futures market prices in the US rose sharply, with main contracts at 25.32 yuan / barrel, or 5.01 US dollars. Brent crude oil futures market price rose sharply, the main contract was 29.94 US dollars / barrel, up 5.20 US dollars. Due to the possibility of production reduction agreement between Russia and Russia, the crude oil price was supported to some extent, the international crude oil price closed up, and the domestic p-xylene price was supported and the trend was temporarily stable.

In terms of downstream PTA, the price of domestic PTA spot market rebounded slightly. As of April 3, the market average price was 3296.67 yuan / ton, and PTA price rebounded slightly in recent two days. Affected by the rise of crude oil price, the price of PTA Market in the downstream rebounded higher. In the near future, Fuzhou chemical industry and trade and BP Zhuhai were restarted, and the domestic PTA plant load increased by 7.06% to 82.53%. At present, the overall inventory pressure in the market is still large. Domestic polyester production fell to 80.73% and weaving industry production rate was 58.3%. The United States actively brokered oil price negotiations. Oil prices rose rapidly, PTA prices rose. At present, the load has returned to a higher level, inventory remains high, and polyester warehouses exist for 30-35 days. Affected by the decline of export orders, the inventory and capital pressure of textile enterprises rose, but PTA price rose due to the support of crude oil, while the domestic price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable.

Recently, the crude oil price has risen, the downstream PTA market price rebounded, and the downstream demand of the terminal has not improved significantly. The business analysts believe that PX market price may maintain a low volatility trend.

1、 Price trend

Yellow phosphorus prices fell in March, according to commodity data monitoring. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 17700 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 16500 yuan / ton. The price fell within the month by 6.78%.

2、 Market analysis

Product: yellow phosphorus prices fell this month. The start-up of yellow phosphorus enterprises has increased slightly, and there are many enterprises planned to resume production in the near future. The local market of yellow phosphorus is average, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is not high, the wait-and-see mood is obvious, and the mentality of traders is unstable. By the end of the month, the mainstream price in Yunnan is about 16200-16300 yuan / ton. The main price in Sichuan is about 16800-17000 yuan / ton. The main price of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou is about 16200 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: at the beginning of this month, the overall operation of domestic phosphorus ore market was basically restored. The recovery of phosphorus ore market in Guizhou is relatively fast, and the operation rate in Yunnan is still low. Up to now, the domestic phosphorus ore market is still in stable operation as a whole after a small fluctuation in March. At present, in Guizhou Province, 28% of the grade phosphate ore plants quote 320-340 yuan / ton; 30% of the grade phosphate ore plants quote 340-370 yuan / ton. Hubei area: the price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore shipboard is about 380-410 yuan / ton. Yunnan area: 28% of the price of ammonium phosphate ore car plate is about 270-290 yuan / ton. Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) market price, the mainstream price in 1830 yuan / ton, is expected to maintain stability in the short term. This month, the phosphoric acid market was not trading well, and the overall waiting atmosphere of the market was strong. Phosphate Market operation rate is not high, enterprises temporarily wait and see the market, the current order contract based.

3、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the overall atmosphere of yellow phosphorus in China this month is poor, the downstream demand is insufficient, and the wait-and-see mood is strong, which is difficult to form a strong support for the market. It is expected that the weak operation of yellow phosphorus price is the main factor.