1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, on June 5, the average ex factory price of mainstream manufacturers was 18500 yuan / ton, down 1.77% compared with 18833.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 35.84% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, R134a demand in refrigerant market has not improved significantly, the support of raw material end is general, foreign demand is still not optimistic, and there are plenty of goods in the field, more driving enterprises, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, the mentality of the industry is negative, the bearish mood for the future market is more, and the trend of R134a market is weak in the short term, According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of June 5, the average price of refrigerant R134a is 18500 yuan / ton, and the market price is concentrated around 17000 yuan / ton – 22000 yuan / ton.

On June 5, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market was temporarily stable, the on-site unit operation was stable, the supply of goods was normal, and the market price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid was at a low level. In the near future, the price trend of fluorite was stable, which may bring some cost support to the hydrofluoric acid market. The operating rate of downstream refrigerant industry was still at a low level, and the actual demand did not improve significantly, but it was supported by raw materials Impact, hydrofluoric acid market is expected to remain stable.

3、 Future forecast

According to refrigerant analysts of business club, the support of raw material end of refrigerant R134a this week is general, while the demand end is still not optimistic, and it is expected that the market of refrigerant R134a will decline slightly in the short term.

According to statistics, the price trend of ammonium nitrate in China this week is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the market price of ammonium nitrate in China is 2330 yuan / ton, which is the same as 2330 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 18.47% year on year. On June 5, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 122.63, unchanged from yesterday, down 2.10% from 125.26 (2020-03-15), the highest point in the cycle, and up 58.50% from 77.37, the lowest point on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

This week, the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market in China is temporarily stable. The operation of domestic ammonium nitrate plants is normal. The on-site supply of ammonium nitrate is normal. The price trend of manufacturers is temporarily stable. In the near future, the on-site supply of goods is normal. Transportation has been alleviated to a certain extent. The market price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. In the near future, ammonium nitrate manufacturers have a good shipping market, downstream purchase on demand, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start normal operation, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. Up to now, the negotiation mainstream in Shaanxi is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2100-2300 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2500-2700 yuan / ton.

This week, the price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China was temporarily stable, with the weekend price of 1433.33 yuan / ton, and this week’s price trend was temporarily stable. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1300 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 1350 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offers 1700 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli offers 1400 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offers 1580 yuan / ton. In the near future, the operation of domestic maintenance devices is normal, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, the goods are in poor condition, the price trend of nitric acid market remains low, the low price of nitric acid is the negative impact of the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia this week rose slightly. In June, the price of liquid ammonia kept a narrow range, and the adjustment range was 50-150 yuan / ton. Some units in the liquid ammonia plant were shut down, the spot supply in the plant was reduced, and the market price of liquid ammonia rose slightly. However, the peak season of spring ploughing has passed, and the downstream demand has not improved significantly, unable to continue to drive the rise of liquid ammonia Market. The procurement efforts of downstream nitrogen fertilizer manufacturers have slowed down significantly, most of which are based on demand procurement. At present, the overall supply and demand of the market is in the balance stage, and the market price of liquid ammonia has increased slightly. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the current price of liquid ammonia in the northern region is 2700-2800 yuan / ton, the price trend of upstream raw materials is rising, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable.

In the near future, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is limited. In addition, the production and sales of nitro compound fertilizer are general. The price trend of raw materials market is rising slightly, which has certain cost support for the ammonium nitrate Market. The ammonium nitrate analyst of the business association thinks that the market price of ammonium nitrate in the later period may be stable temporarily.

On June 2, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of major contracts at $36.81/barrel, up $1.37 or 3.86%. Brent crude oil futures market price rose, the settlement price of main contract was $39.57/barrel, up $1.25 or 3.26%, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil also reached their highs in nearly three months. It is mainly driven by the expected warming of OPEC + extended production reduction agreement and economic recovery sentiment in the United States and Europe.

Oil prices rose for four consecutive trading days as the OPEC + video conference held on June 4 drew near and the market released the expectation of crude oil producers to extend the production reduction agreement. It is widely believed that OPEC + is considering extending the implementation period of its 9.7 million B / D production reduction agreement to July or August at this week’s meeting. According to the previous agreement, the scale of production reduction from July to the end of this year will be reduced to 7.7 million barrels / day. Saudi Arabia has always advocated deep production reduction. Previously, Russia had an ambiguous attitude on this issue. Oil price was once under pressure. Now market people generally have optimistic expectations on the production reduction agreement, and oil price naturally rebounded continuously.

In addition, according to the news, the production reduction scale and intensity of OPEC + oil producing countries in May are still in line with the market expectation. In May, all 13 OPEC member countries implemented a production reduction of 5.84 million barrels per day, with an average daily output of 24.6 million barrels, the lowest since 2002. Among them, Saudi Arabia has undertaken the production reduction of 2.89 million barrels, accounting for nearly half of OPEC’s total production reduction share, reducing the daily output to 8.7 million barrels. It is worth mentioning that Russia’s performance is also remarkable. According to the data, Russia’s oil production in May was 9.388 million barrels / day, down 15.5% year-on-year and 17.2% month on month. Just two months ago, Russia’s crude oil production was at an all-time high, with 11.35 million barrels per day in April. The sharp reduction of oil production in oil producing countries has balanced the problem of excess supply, and the dilemma of shortage of storage capacity has gradually broken the ice, which plays a decisive role in restraining the continued decline of oil price.

Good news continues in the market. On June 2, the inventory data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) did not disappoint. The data showed that the crude oil inventory in the United States fell unexpectedly last week. U.S. crude oil inventories fell 483000 barrels in the week to May 29, after analysts had expected an increase of 3 million barrels. For the week ending May 29, crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, fell 2.2 million barrels, API said. The positive inventory data also helped the oil price rise.

The market demand is also slowly picking up. The blockade measures caused by the epidemic have been gradually cancelled in Europe and the United States. In addition, Europe and the United States have entered the summer driving season, which further promotes the market demand for crude oil. The slow recovery of demand is also an important factor supporting the oil price. According to the business community, although the continuous rebound of oil price is mainly due to the centralized release of the recent market good news, in which the market plays a major role in the optimistic expectation of OPEC + to extend the production reduction, and at the same time, the demand is also slowly picking up, but for the basic supply and demand of the crude oil market, it may take some time to return to the normal level before the outbreak, or even the duration will still be longer than In general, if the results of this week’s OPEC + video conference are as expected, the oil price may maintain an optimistic trend, but the increase may be subject to the early release of favorable expectations. In the medium and long term, the oil price market is generally relatively cautious.

1、 Price trend

The domestic BDO market continued to decline. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic BDO market price at the beginning of the week was 8700 yuan / ton, and the average domestic BDO market price at the end of the week was 8366 yuan / ton. The price fell 3.84% in the week, 9.46% month on month, 6.00% year-on-year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic BDO market continued to rock bottom. With the price of raw calcium carbide moving up significantly, the cost side support is obvious, BDO production profits are greatly squeezed, and the production enterprises have no intention to yield profits. From May 26 to 27, Mercer and Tunhe announced that BDO settled 8430 yuan / ton in East China and 8530 yuan / ton in South China in May, 8400 yuan / ton in East China and 8500 yuan / ton in South China in June; Henan energy and Shaanxi chemical settled 8250 yuan / ton in East China and 8350 yuan / ton in South China in May, 8200 yuan / ton in East China and 8300 yuan / ton in South China in June. Compared with the previous month, they all fell sharply, which made the air atmosphere more attractive to the industry. The downstream price is obviously depressed.

In terms of devices, the restart time of Dongyuan, Ronghe and Ronghe is uncertain this week; hecian plans to restart at the beginning of June; MEC’s load is 50%, and the whole line will be shut down for maintenance from June 3 to June 30; Tianye’s phase I 30000 ton device will be shut down for maintenance on May 18, and it is expected to restart in the middle of June, and the restart time of other devices will be determined; Tunhe’s phase I 50%, and phase II will be shut down; Xinye’s catalyst will be replaced in the evening of March 25 It is planned to restart at the end of June; Sinopec’s load is reduced to about 50%; black cat’s load is about 50%, and maintenance is planned in June; Kaixiang’s two units are in full load operation; Panjin Dalian’s maintenance plan in June; Guotai’s maintenance plan in early June at the end of May.

In terms of raw materials, methanol, the overall methanol market this week showed a downward trend, and the delivery atmosphere was general. In the first half of the week, the turnover was light, and in the second half of the week, the main olefin factories in Ningxia increased their efforts in the external procurement, while the inventory pressure of the factories in the north and south of Shaanxi was slightly relieved. At the beginning of the week, the delivery of goods in Guanzhong area was not good, the factory’s secondary adjustment quotation fell to 1400-1430 yuan / ton of ex warehouse spot exchange, the factory’s inventory was running at a high level, and the business owners held a bearish attitude towards this, and the trading atmosphere in the second half of the week was still stalemate.

Calcium carbide: in recent years, the domestic calcium carbide market is in short supply. Since May 10, the ex factory price in Wuhai has been increased by 300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream transaction price is 2600 yuan / ton. Driven by the rapid price increase, the early production of calcium carbide devices is planned to start or increase the load. At present, some calcium carbide furnaces are still in the opening stage, and there are commodity quantities put on the market in succession.

Downstream demand: PBT: normal operation of Kaixiang device; Meiyuan, Shandong weijiao; one line of Kanghui, followed by or reopened; Yizheng Chemical fiber load of about 60%; Wuxi Xingsheng load of 3-40%; Tunhe device current load of 50%; Changshu Changchun load of 50%. Meizhou Bay operates normally.

3、 Future forecast

Raw material calcium carbide rose sharply, BDO production profit changed from profit to loss, and production enterprises mostly held a mentality of stop and stabilize, so many main factories planned to stop maintenance in June, aiming to achieve the purpose of keeping the price. However, the demand side has not improved significantly, and the cost and inventory pressure are concerned, and the downstream industries maintain the rigid demand to bargain hunting. Although the on-site operating rate of BDO starts to decline next week, the early inventory is to be digested, and the shipment is still the current key work. BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will continue to decline next week, but there is limited space to focus on downstream construction and device maintenance.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the price of aniline remained stable this week. On May 29, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4400-4490 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 4600-4820 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and comment

Raw materials: the listing price of pure benzene on Sunday (May 31) is 3450-3850 yuan / ton (average price 3600 yuan / ton), up 4.05% from last week. This week, Sinopec increased the price of pure benzene by 150 yuan / ton to 3500 yuan / ton. Prices rose on Tuesday, supported by positive crude oil and external market conditions. At present, the price of pure benzene in the far month is rising, but the spot negotiation is general.

The price of nitric acid has been stable since May 7, and the production price in East China this week was 1433.33 yuan / ton.

Product: the aniline Market was stable again after the reduction of 200 yuan / ton of aniline in Shandong last Thursday. The price of aniline remained stable for a week, while the price of aniline remained weak.

3、 Future expectation

Raw materials: it is heard that the turnover of pure benzene is 3600 yuan / ton in May, 3680-3700 yuan / ton in June, 3760 yuan / ton in July and 3800 yuan / ton in August. The operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has increased, the pressure on supply and demand has increased, or the pure benzene market has been affected. In the long run, the market price of pure benzene will continue to rise, but there is still a possibility of oscillation in the short term.

Aniline profit margin still exists, downstream demand recovery is slow, and aniline is expected to maintain weak stability in the short term.