Zinc price trend

 

PVA

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the trend of zinc price in July can be divided into several stages: 1 July to 8 July shock and maintain stability; 9 July to 13 July the first wave of rapid rise; 14 July to 27 July shock adjustment stage; 27 July to 31 July again rapid rise stage. As of July 31, the average price of zinc was 18980.00 yuan / ton, up 11.12% from 17080.00 yuan / ton on July 1.

 

The retail scale of home appliances in the first half of the year reached 369 billion yuan

 

On July 27, the report on China’s home appliance market in the first half of 2020 released by the China Institute of electronic information industry development showed that the retail sales of China’s home appliance market in the first half of 2020 was 369 billion yuan, down 14.13% from the same period last year. In the second quarter, the total retail sales of China’s home appliance market reached 248.6 billion yuan, twice as much as that in the first quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 2.64%. Affected by the epidemic situation, domestic household appliances consumption fell sharply in the first quarter. With the resumption of work and production in the second quarter, consumption recovered and there was a certain amount of retaliatory consumption, which led to a year-on-year increase in household appliances consumption in the second quarter. It is expected that household appliances consumption will recover in the third quarter. As the main downstream of zinc ingot consumption, the zinc market demand is expected to maintain stability, and the positive effect on the zinc market is weakened.

 

Domestic zinc production

 

Date output of the month (10000 tons) cumulative output (10000 tons) year on year increase (%) cumulative growth (%)

June 2020 52.304.8 1.2 7.7

May 2020: 51.4 252.7 4.5 9.1

April 2020 51.7 201.3 7.3 10.7

March 2020 48.9 149.5 4.7 11

February 2020 — 104 — 12.9

It can be seen from the table that the output of zinc ingots in the first half of the year increased year on year, but the increase slowed down month by month. The supply growth of zinc market slowed down significantly, the risk of excess supply decreased, and the risk of supply shortage increased.

 

Zinc inventory in Shanghai market

 

Time this week inventory increase / decrease

Subtotal futures

June 29 – July 3 95809 37146 – 1896 – 104

July 6 – July 10 91307 36696 – 4502 – 450

July 13 – July 17 93637 38895 2330 2199

July 20 – July 24 89188 37285 – 4449 – 1610

July 27 – July 31 88347 35631 – 841 – 1654

It can be seen from the table that the zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures exchange market decreased slowly in July, the futures inventory also decreased slightly, and the domestic zinc market supply decreased. With the recovery of domestic economy, the demand for zinc ingot is gradually increasing, and the shortage pressure of zinc market is increasing.

 

Zinc inventory in LME Market

Time stock (ton) change (ton)

July 1 122550 – 25

July 2 122525 – 25

July 3 122525 0

July 6 122275 – 250

July 7 122150 – 125

July 8 121950 – 200

July 9 121775 – 175

July 10 123375 1600

13 July 123475 100

14 July 123200 – 275

July 15 122975 – 225

July 16 122525 – 450

July 17 122400 – 125

July 20 121700 – 700

21 July 121050 – 650

22 July 133450 12400

July 23 150050 16600

July 24 154500 4450

27 July 158825 4325

July 28 173000 14175

July 29 187475 14475

July 30 188175 700

It can be seen from the table that the zinc ingot warehouse in LME market has a small fluctuation and drop in the first and middle of July. Affected by the epidemic situation, zinc ore production is more stopped, the supply of zinc market is reduced, and the zinc ingot inventory is reduced. However, since late July, the inventory of zinc market has increased sharply, and the pressure of excess supply in zinc market has increased. Affected by the epidemic situation, the global economy is weak seriously, and the economic recovery in the second half of the year is not ideal, and the demand for zinc is bad. After the market zinc ingot supply surplus risk surge.

 

China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index

 

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According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in July, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry was 51.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, which was above the critical point for five consecutive months. China’s economic prosperity continued to recover, and the operating conditions of enterprises continued to improve. The improvement of macroeconomic environment is good for the zinc market, which has a certain upward momentum.

 

Zinc concentrate processing fee

 

Name: Rise and fall time of average quotation (yuan / ton)

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Guangxi 5000-5200 5100 00 June 29

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Hunan 5100-5200 5150 0 June 29

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Yunnan 4800-5100 4950 0 June 29

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Shaanxi 4800-5000 4900 0 June 29

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Inner Mongolia 5000-5200 5100 00 June 29

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Guangxi 5200-5400 5300 200 July 6

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Hunan 5400-5500 5450 300 July 6

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Yunnan 4800-5100 4950 0 July 6

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Shaanxi 4900-5100 5000 100 July 6

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Inner Mongolia 5200-5400 5300 200 July 6

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Guangxi 5200-5400 5300 0 July 13

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Hunan 5400-5500 5450 00 July 13

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Yunnan 4900-5100 5000 50 July 13

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Shaanxi 4900-5100 5000 0 July 13

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Inner Mongolia 5200-5400 5300 0 July 13

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Guangxi 5200-5400 5300 0 July 20

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Hunan 5400-5500 5450 00 July 20

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Yunnan 4900-5100 5000 000 July 20

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Shaanxi 4900-5100 5000 0 July 20

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Inner Mongolia 5200-5400 5300 0 July 20

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Guangxi 5400-5600 5500 200 July 27

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Hunan 5400-5500 5450 00 July 27

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Yunnan 4900-5100 5000 000 July 27

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Shaanxi 5100-5300 5200 200 July 27

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Inner Mongolia 5200-5400 5300 0 July 27

It can be seen from the data in the table that the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee rose sharply in July, ranging from 200-500 yuan / ton. The zinc concentrate processing fee rose and the zinc ingot cost rose, which was good for the zinc market, and the driving force for the rise of the zinc market was increased.

 

Analysis, review and Prospect

 

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at the business agency, believes that since July, the processing cost of zinc concentrate has risen sharply, the impetus for zinc ingot rise has increased, the domestic economy has recovered, the demand for zinc market has recovered, the zinc price has been supported by the rise, and the domestic zinc market inventory has continued to decline slightly, which is the specific manifestation of the recovery of zinc market demand. However, we should pay more attention to the risk of zinc market while we pay attention to the rising power of zinc market. After the sharp rise of zinc market in July, the price of zinc is relatively high. However, the international market is affected by the epidemic situation, the risk of excess supply in zinc market is increasing, the inventory of LME market is soaring, and the risk of zinc market falling sharply. After the market zinc ingot falls the pressure to increase. Generally speaking, the good zinc market supported the ladder rise of zinc market in July, but the decline risk of zinc market in the future was greater. After the price of zinc should avoid chasing higher and be alert to the falling risk.

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According to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride decreased in July. As of the 30th day, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 5037.5 yuan / ton, which was 3.59% lower than the price of 5225 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 12.14% lower than that at the beginning of the month. In July, the price of phthalic anhydride dropped and the market price of phthalic anhydride fell.

 

PVA

In July, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride declined, and the market situation of phthalic anhydride was general. In the near future, the downstream demand was not good, and the price of o-phthalic anhydride dropped, which affected the price of phthalic anhydride slightly. Domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers started normal operation, and the operating rate of phthalic anhydride was about 60%. The domestic phthalic anhydride spot supply was sufficient. The downstream plasticizer industry mainly purchased on demand. The merchants in the market were bullish and the market was general. In East China, the market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride declined, and high-end transactions were limited. In East China, the main source negotiation of neighboring France was RMB 5000-5100 / T, while that of naphthalene process was 4800-4900 yuan / T; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China was 4900-5100 yuan / T, and the market outlook of phthalic anhydride was still in existence, and the market price of phthalic anhydride fell.

 

The domestic price of o-benzene decreased slightly in July. As of the end of the month, the price of o-benzene was 4400 yuan / T, down 1.35% from the price of 4460 yuan / T at the beginning of the month. The decline of domestic o-benzene price was a big negative effect on the phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the price of imported o-benzene in the port area declined, and the external quotation of o-benzene declined. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation. The actual list was discussed in detail. In addition, the on-site o-benzene merchants had a strong wait-and-see mood, The price of o-benzene decreased slightly, and the price of raw material o-benzene declined, which was detrimental to the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride.

 

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The DOP market price in the downstream of phthalic anhydride fell in July. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of DOP at the end of July was 7133.33 yuan / ton, which was 4.04% lower than the price of 7433.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The price of isooctanol in the field fell down. DOP device operated stably, and the spot supply was sufficient. The DOP market price fell. The market of plasticizer industry declined. DOP market quotation was 6800-7200 yuan / ton. The turnover of plasticizer in the market decreased, and the downstream market was poor. Affected by bad luck, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride declined.

 

Generally speaking, under the background of severe epidemic situation, it is very difficult for fuel demand to fundamentally improve. Although the United States and Europe have recently introduced economic stimulus policies, most of them are monetary policies. Due to the particularity of the epidemic situation, it is difficult to solve the problem from the perspective of increasing money supply. At present, the rebalancing of market supply and demand is mainly due to the efforts of oil producing countries to limit production. Crude oil prices mainly fluctuate, but there are also downside risks. Domestic petrochemical products prices are affected by certain negative effects.

 

In the future, the domestic o-benzene price trend is mainly volatile, but the transaction price of plasticizer is general, the plasticizer price has a downward trend, and the downward pressure of DOP market is still there. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will decrease slightly in August.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the market of chloroform in Shandong was stable and weak in July. At the beginning of the month, the average price of chloroform in Shandong remained at about 2000 yuan / ton. Near the end of the month, the average price of chloroform dropped to 1900 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5% compared with the beginning of the month.

 

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Production capacity and operation of the enterprise

Jinling, Shandong: 440000 tons / year, 80%

Dongying Jinmao 120000 tons / year parking

400000 tons / year

Jiangsu Liwen 160000 tons / year normal

Jiangxi Liwen: 120000 tons / year: 50%

The overall chloroform market in this month is mainly horizontal arrangement. The production start-up of enterprises is limited, and the inventory pressure is not high. Due to the high price of liquid chlorine of raw materials, the production cost of enterprises is high. However, the demand of downstream market is not good, and the price of chloroform continues to be stable. Near the end of the month, with the gradual recovery of enterprise production, the price of chloroform continues to decline. At present, the price quoted by Shandong is about 1900-1950 yuan / ton, Jiangxi Liwen is about 2300 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu is about 2650 yuan / ton.

 

In terms of upstream market, methanol market fluctuated downward, maintenance enterprises in Northwest China gradually recovered, enterprises and port inventory increased, spot price of methanol continued to decline, at present, about 1622 yuan / ton; liquid chlorine market was high, regional differences in enterprise start-up were large, regional market was affected by enterprise start-up, the current average price was about 700-900 yuan / ton.

 

On the other hand, the terminal demand of after-sales market of R22 downstream of trichloromethane is in general, the export is not good, and the domestic after-sales market has not improved significantly. Due to internal and external troubles, R22 manufacturers are under pressure to ship, and the market start-up is not high, at present, about 15000-16000 yuan / ton; pharmaceutical and agricultural diluents and other industries mainly purchase rigid demand, and support the chloroform market is flat.

 

Analysts of CH4 chloride data from business society believe that the current spot supply of chloroform market is increasing with the operating rate of enterprises, while the downstream refrigerant market is approaching the off-season, and the market demand will further decline. Under the high production cost of enterprises, it is expected that the chloroform market will remain weak and stable in a short time.

PVA

According to the data monitored by the business agency, today’s market comprehensive price is 13600.00 yuan / ton, and the domestic PC market is running in a weak position, and the price has decreased slightly, down 0.73% compared with the same period last week, down to 100 yuan / ton.

 

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The focus of the domestic PC market is low, the downstream demand is insufficient, the upstream lacks good support, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the negotiation atmosphere is cold, the center of gravity in South China moves down, and the negotiation is cautious. At present, the market price in East China is 12700-14500 yuan / ton, and the middle and high-end price is 14200-16000 yuan / ton. The latest price of the enterprise, Luxi Chemical 12900 yuan / ton, Lihua yiweiyuan 13500 yuan / ton, Shanghai Kesi 14400 yuan / ton, slow delivery.

 

The upstream market price of bisphenol continued to decline, with poor trading atmosphere and cold negotiation atmosphere. The reference price in East China market was around 9100 yuan / ton.

 

On July 27, the rubber and plastic index was 610 points, down 1 point compared with yesterday, 42.45% lower than 1060 (2012-03-14), and 15.53% higher than the lowest point of 528 on April 06, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

 

PC analysts of business agency believe: it is expected that the PC market will be stable and weak in the short term, and the decline is likely to continue. (the above prices are provided by major PC manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business PC analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

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In the second half of July, the polyethylene market did not rise and opened a downward channel. LLDPE, LDPE and HDPE in East China all showed different degrees of decline. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the decline range of the three major PE varieties ranged from 50 to 450 yuan / ton, of which the decline of LDPE in East China was the most prominent, with a decrease of 3.18% during the period (7.16-27).

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Average price range of regional varieties and specifications on July 16 and July 27

East China LLDPE 7042 7416.67 yuan / ton 7216.67 yuan / ton – 2.70%

LDPE 2426h 9037.50 yuan / ton ￥ 8750.00 yuan / ton – 3.18% in East China

HDPE 5000S 8300.00 yuan / ton ￥ 8100.00 yuan / ton – 2.41% in East China

In the second half of July, the PE market mainly fell. With the restart of Zhongtian and Zhongsha devices, the operating rate rose, and the market supply increased compared with the previous period. At this time, the downstream was in the off-season. Under the influence of social and public health events, the factory operating rate was low, the demand was general, and the enthusiasm of entering the market was not high. Liansu futures has an obvious downward trend, which affects the mentality of the spot market. Manufacturers have lowered the factory price, polyethylene trend is weak. Business mentality is general, follow the decline mainly.

 

In terms of supply, the supply pressure increased during the week (7.17-24), the average operating rate of PE enterprises increased by more than 3%, the output increased by 14000 tons, and the maintenance volume decreased by 21200 tons. In terms of demand, the downstream agricultural film operation rose by 0.3% month on month, and the operating rate this week was 18.1%, while the packaging film operation decreased slightly, ranging from 0.1% to 67.1%.

 

In terms of futures, the price of plastic futures rebounded due to the supply pressure of the spot market and the impact of macro sentiment. The main plastic contract rose 0.21% on Monday (July 20), and then showed a downward trend for four consecutive days. As of the end of Friday (July 24), the price of plastic futures fell 145 within the week.

 

At present, the weakness of futures has affected the mentality of the spot market, and the maintenance of petrochemical plants’ devices has gradually recovered. Recently, the market supply pressure has increased, the downstream demand is general, and the import volume is low. In the short term, the market is still expected to fall.

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