According to the price monitoring of the business society, the domestic spandex market price remained volatile in January. As of January 15, the average ex factory price of 40d spandex was 43500 yuan / ton, up 5.07% from the beginning of the month and 36.36% year on year. The start-up of the industry is around 90%, and the inventory of manufacturers is low. Affected by the cost support and tight supply, the factory price continues to rise. The actual transaction needs to be discussed in detail. However, the enthusiasm of the terminal market to get goods is general, and the atmosphere of watching the market is strong.

 

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

 

20D 30D 40D

Zhejiang 48000-50000 46000-48000 38000-43000

Shandong Province: 48000-52000 46000-50000 38000-43500

Fujian 48000-52000 46000-50000 38000-43500

Jiangsu Province: 48000-50000 46000-48000 38000-40000

The price of raw material PTMEG continues to be very high in the market. At present, the mainstream quotation of 1800 molecular weight source is 19500-20500 yuan / ton, and the actual negotiation is 19000-19500 yuan / ton. Around 780% of the industry started operation and maintained stable operation. Specifically, in Yizheng Dalian’s 40000 ton plant shutdown, Sichuan Tianhua’s 46000 ton plant load slightly decreased, and Chongqing Chiyuan chemical’s 46000 ton plant load slightly decreased by about 70%. The decline of pure MDI market is slowing down, the supply of imported barreled goods is tight, and most of the goods holders hold steady offer. The current market refers to the wire transfer of 20800-21500 yuan / ton for barreled goods, and some of the barreled goods are tight, which is subject to the actual negotiation. In January 2021, the listing price of pure MDI barrels of Wanhua chemical was 24000 yuan / ton, which was 4000 yuan / ton lower than that in December 2020. In December 2020, the settlement price was 23500 yuan / ton, down 4000 yuan / ton month on month.

 

The downstream terminal market buys on demand, and the overall market maintains a cautious wait-and-see attitude. It is heard that there will be a holiday from the middle and late ten days to the end of the month. Although the local government is also encouraging people to stay in the local area for the Spring Festival, generally speaking, most of the workers are willing to return home. We are cautious about the market in the first half of next year, and some manufacturers hand over some export orders in the early stage, so the pace of production and sales is acceptable. At present, about 55% of the circular knitting machines are started at a lower level, and about 68% of the warp knitting machines are started at a lower level.

 

Business analysts believe that the cost side of good support is not reduced, spandex market supply is not abundant, part of the batch number is still tight, inventory remains low, so the price remains high. However, downstream manufacturers are cautious, and with the Spring Festival approaching, the demand may gradually decrease, so in the short term, the price of spandex market will remain volatile and warm.

PVA

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of January 13, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 8300 yuan / ton, and the domestic DMF market price had a wide increase, with an increase of about 600 yuan / ton in just a few days, and the focus of the negotiation was high.

 

The quotation of domestic DMF market is firm, the negotiation price rises slightly, and the price of domestic DMF market rises. Near the end of the year, the traders have compact stock preparation, the manufacturers are active in shipping, the logistics is smooth, the negotiation center is high, the price is willing to support, the downstream just needs to purchase, the trading volume of new orders has increased, the buying mentality still exists, and the inventory is normal. The mainstream price in East China is 8400-8600 yuan / ton, and that in South China is 8700-8800 yuan / ton.

 

The upstream methanol market is in stable operation as a whole, the price in Guangdong increases slightly, the operating rate is normal, Shandong Hualu region is in stable operation, South China, northeast and southwest regions are in stable operation, East China has a slight upward trend, and the methanol market will be mainly consolidated in the short term.

 

On January 12, the chemical industry index was 809 points, down 3 points from yesterday, down 20.37% from 1016 points (2012-03-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 35.28% from 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

 

Business agency DMF analysts believe that: in the short term, the domestic DMF market is relatively strong, the focus of negotiation is on the high side, and the negotiation atmosphere is good. (the above prices are provided by major DMF manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by business DMF analysts. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact relevant manufacturers for consultation.)

PVA

（1） “Opinions on Further Strengthening the control of plastic pollution” published

 

On January 19, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of ecological environment announced the “opinions on Further Strengthening the control of plastic pollution”. By the end of 2020, China will take the lead in banning and restricting the production, sales and use of some plastic products in some regions and fields. By the end of 2022, the consumption of primary plastic products will be significantly reduced, and alternative products will be promoted.

 

According to the “opinions”, it is prohibited to produce and sell ultra-thin plastic shopping bags and ultra-thin polyethylene agricultural mulch in accordance with the principle of “forbidding and limiting one batch, replacing one batch of recycled products and standardizing one batch”. It is forbidden to use medical waste as raw material to manufacture plastic products. The import of waste plastics will be banned. The production and sale of disposable foam plastic tableware, disposable plastic cotton swabs and daily chemical products containing plastic beads are prohibited step by step. The use of non degradable plastic bags, disposable plastic products and express plastic packaging is prohibited or restricted step by step and field by field. Develop and promote green plastic products and alternative products, explore and cultivate a new business mode conducive to standardized recycling and recycling, and reduce plastic pollution. We should strengthen the classification, recovery and transportation of plastic waste, and standardize the resource utilization and harmless disposal of plastic waste. Carry out special cleaning of plastic waste. At the same time, the Opinions also put forward the establishment and improvement of relevant regulations and standards, the improvement of supporting policies, the strengthening of scientific and technological support, strict supervision and law enforcement and other supporting safeguard measures.

 

（2） Notice on increasing the export tax rebate rate of some products

 

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On March 17, 2020, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued an announcement on increasing the export tax rebate rate of some products. The announcement said that the export tax rebate rate of 1084 products such as porcelain sanitary ware will be increased to 13%; the export tax rebate rate of 380 products such as plant growth regulators will be increased to 9%. At the same time, the announcement will be implemented from March 20, 2020, and the applicable export tax rebate rate of the listed goods will be reported as export goods The date of export indicated on the customs declaration. Among them, the export tax rebates of primary ABS and as were increased.

 

（3） “One helmet with one belt” security operation

 

On April 21, in order to further improve the safety protection level of motorcycle, electric bicycle riders and car drivers, and effectively reduce the death toll in traffic accidents, the traffic administration bureau of the Ministry of public security deployed to carry out the “one helmet one belt” safety guard operation across the country. Many places responded positively and issued relevant regulations one after another. According to the regulations, all provinces and cities in China generally rectify and punish the behaviors of riding motorcycles and electric vehicles without wearing safety helmets, and successively issue documents to implement them from June 1 or July 1.

 

（4） 9:9 jointly issued “notice on solid promotion of plastic pollution control”

 

According to the national development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on July 17, in order to coordinate the prevention and control of the epidemic situation and the control of plastic pollution, and ensure the completion of the phased targets and tasks of plastic pollution control by the end of 2020, nine departments including the national development and Reform Commission (NDRC) recently jointly issued the notice on Solidly Promoting the control of plastic pollution, pointing out that the supervision and inspection on the prohibition of the production and sale of plastic products should be strengthened. Local market supervision departments should carry out supervision and inspection on the quality of plastic products, investigate and deal with the production and sale of ultra-thin plastic shopping bags with thickness less than 0.025mm and polyethylene agricultural mulch with thickness less than 0.01mm according to law; local commercial departments should strengthen the supervision and management on the use of non degradable plastic bags in retail places, take away services, various exhibition activities, etc.

 

（5） “Guide for classification and identification of degradable plastic products” issued

 

On September 13, the China Federation of light industry formulated and issued the guidelines for classification and identification of degradable plastic products (hereinafter referred to as the guidelines). The “guide” further defines the concept and definition of degradable plastics, and puts forward specific requirements for the identification of degradable plastics from five aspects: scope, product definition and classification, testing methods of degradability, identification requirements, identification styles and specifications. At the same time, the “guide” requires relevant product manufacturers, sales enterprises, retail supermarkets, catering enterprises and other users, as well as relevant units, to conscientiously implement the national policies and measures to control plastic pollution, actively carry out product identification and procurement in accordance with the “guide”, and strengthen identification management.

 

（6） : the national standard general technical requirements for disposable degradable tableware was officially released

 

General quality requirements for disposable degradable tableware (GB / T 18006.3, hereinafter referred to as the new standard) is issued, which replaces the relevant contents of GB / T 18006.1-2009 general technical requirements for plastic disposable tableware (hereinafter referred to as the old standard). According to the regulations, the standard will be formally implemented on December 31, 2020. It is found that there are three main changes in the new standard: the name of the standard is changed from general technical requirements for plastic disposable tableware to general technical quality requirements for disposable degradable tableware; the classification method is modified to classify disposable degradable tableware according to heat resistance; the application scope, test method and technical index of degradation performance requirements are modified.

 

（7） Beijing plastic pollution control action plan (2020-2025) officially released

 

On December 24, the Beijing action plan for plastic pollution control (2020-2025) was officially released, which also made clear requirements for the use of plastic products in catering industry and take out service.

 

The “action plan” clearly requires that from January 1, 2021, non degradable disposable plastic straws shall be prohibited in Beijing’s catering industry and replaced with degradable plastic straws; non degradable plastic bags shall be prohibited in built-up areas for takeout (including food packaging) services and replaced with degradable plastic bags; and non degradable disposable plastic straws shall be prohibited in built-up areas and scenic spots Plastic tableware should be used for cleaning, disinfecting and reusing. By the end of June 2021, the city’s catering industry will prohibit the use of non degradable disposable plastic coffee mixing sticks.

PVA

1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, domestic toluene showed a rising trend this week. On January 3, the price of toluene was 3710 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (January 10), the price was 3810 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton or 2.69% from last week.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

Within the week, Sinopec’s Toluene price was increased by 100-150 yuan / ton (the price was reduced in some regions). In terms of external market, as of January 8, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 516 US dollars / ton, up 25.5 US dollars / ton or 5.2% compared with December 31; the price of imported toluene from East China was 525 US dollars / ton, up 23.5 US dollars / ton or 4.69% compared with December 31. During the week, the news of crude oil was good, the price rose rapidly, and the price of toluene in the external market also rose widely. The domestic toluene market has a strong speculation mentality, but the demand for TDI, PX and other downstream products is general, and the mentality of following up is cautious.

 

In terms of crude oil, on January 5, OPEC + reached an agreement to adjust the daily crude oil production. In addition, Saudi Arabia said that it would reduce the daily crude oil production by an additional 1 million barrels in February and March, and the oil price rose rapidly boosted by the favorable situation. Compared with December 31, Brent rose by $4.805/barrel, or 9.52%; WTI rose by $3.63/barrel, or 7.46%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 24.38% and WTI decreased by 19.98%.

 

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rebounded after falling this week, and the price of domestic goods was 12666.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of last week. At present, the domestic market is dominated by consolidation and operation, with cautious attitude in the market, weak follow-up in the downstream and inactive trading.

 

In the PX market, the domestic PX price this week was more stable than last week. Sinopec’s listed price was about 4700 yuan / ton, down 31.88% year on year. The domestic PX operating rate is about 60%. The terminal demand is general, and PX is mainly purchased on demand. As of January 7, the closing prices of p-xylene market in Asia were US $676-678 / T FOB Korea and US $694-696 / T CFR China. This week, PX external price trend rose, to the domestic market to bring a certain positive support impact.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

 

Crude oil, external support is good, toluene is expected to rise next week. However, the domestic downstream demand remained weak, mainly from the rigid demand; the toluene port inventory was high, and it was difficult to consume in the short term, which inhibited the growth of toluene. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the downstream stock before the Spring Festival and the impact of gasoline blending price trend on xylene price.

PVA

1、 Melamine price trend

 

(Figure: p-value curve of melamine products)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, as of January 8, the average quotation price of melamine enterprises was 7266.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, decreased by 2.24% compared with December 8, 2020, and increased by 29.76% year on year in a three-month cycle. At present, some units are shut down for maintenance, and the operating rate of melamine has slightly decreased, but the domestic downstream demand is not good. Although the market quotation is temporarily stable, under the pressure of enterprise sales, the actual transaction price is weak, and some new orders are stable.

 

At present, the mainstream quotation of melamine in Shandong is around 7000 yuan / ton, the mainstream quotation of melamine in Xinjiang is around 6400 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of melamine in Sichuan is around 7000 yuan / ton. The quotation is for reference only, and the actual price shall prevail.

 

Upstream urea, Shandong urea market rose on January 8. The recent high level consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia shows good cost support. The domestic demand is weak as a whole. Affected by the air pollution control, the operating rate of plate continues to decline. The downstream compound fertilizer enterprises purchase moderately, and the agricultural part inquires. The operators are cautious about the high price source, and do not make a lot of preparation.

 

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices on January 7, 2021, there were 18 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, of which one was more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the total number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were propylene glycol (10.29%), crude benzene (3.80%) and cryolite (3.02%). A total of 14 kinds of commodities declined month on month, with phenol (- 3.21%), DMF (- 2.90%) and n-butanol (industrial grade) (- 2.78%) as the top three products. The average daily rise or fall was 0.12%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Melamine analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the price of upstream urea is rising slightly, the cost support is limited, the domestic downstream demand is weak, and the market atmosphere is light. It is expected that the melamine market will be weak and stable in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the market information guidance.

PVA