1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of domestic baking soda has stabilized temporarily this week. The average price of domestic market is 1506.67 yuan / ton from the beginning of the week to the end of the week. On September 3, the bicarbonate commodity index was 100.00, which was the same as yesterday, setting an all-time high in the cycle, up 0.00% from the lowest point of 100.00 on September 02, 2020. It reached a new low in the cycle, down 0.00% from the peak of 100.00 on September 2, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the price of sodium bicarbonate has been running steadily after the early rising trend. At present, the price of sodium bicarbonate in Henan is temporarily stable, and the mainstream quotation in the market is about 1450-1600 yuan / ton. The price of sodium bicarbonate is rising, and the downstream demand is fair. It is expected that the price will slightly consolidate in the near future. The price of sodium bicarbonate in Hebei is stable. The mainstream quotation is about 1200-1400 yuan / ton. The price of sodium bicarbonate is temporarily stable. The downstream is mainly purchased on demand. It is expected that the price will be stable in the near future.

Raw materials: according to the understanding of the business agency, the price of soda ash manufacturers increased last week. First, according to the spirit of the association meeting, the price of light alkali increased by 200 yuan / ton, and that of heavy soda increased by 400 yuan / ton. This week, the trend of domestic soda ash market is relatively strong, and the price of enterprises has increased greatly. The market atmosphere is flat, downstream demand has improved, and manufacturers are mainly active in shipping. Second, domestic soda ash inventory declined. According to statistics, the total inventory of domestic soda manufacturers was 842100 tons, down 90400 tons month on month. From the supply side, affected by natural disasters and other factors, the number of maintenance enterprises has increased recently. The domestic total operating rate is about 70%.

Demand: in the downstream, the demand for sodium bicarbonate in medicine, textile and food is fair, while the price of sodium bicarbonate goes up. Business agency analysts believe that: the price of raw material soda ash in the upstream is rising steadily at this stage, and the demand for sodium bicarbonate in medicine, textile and food in the downstream is fair. It is expected that the price of sodium carbonate will be mainly stable in the later stage.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic PA6 market was adjusted in a narrow range in August, and various spot brands were up and down in a narrow range. As of August 31, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 from traders was about 11000.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.61% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

PA6 upstream caprolactam market fell slightly in August, with the decline mainly concentrated in the first ten days. The monthly low point appeared on August 7, and the average ex factory price was about 9416 yuan / ton. In the second half of the month, the restart of downstream maintenance units was delayed, which caused pressure on the supply and demand side of the north, and the price of caprolactam was adjusted. The average ex factory price of caprolactam was 9416 yuan / ton on August 17, and 9450 yuan / ton on August 23. Raw material pure benzene Market Volatility in August, the direction of the introduction of lactam market direction is more ambiguous. The improvement of downstream demand is limited, and it is expected that caprolactam prices will be low in the short term, and the finishing operation will be dominated.

The price of PA6 in August showed two cycles of rise and fall, and the whole month’s price fluctuated. Among them, the first ten days of the market continued the negative trend of July low, combined with the decline of upstream lactam, cost support weakened, the overall lack of good news to boost. In the second half of the month, caprolactam gradually stabilized, which affected the recovery of PA6 price, but the market atmosphere was still mainly stalemate. Business operation is biased towards stable price shipment, and the actual order is more profitable. As traders and downstream factories have a certain amount of advance consumption for the coming “golden nine silver ten”, it is necessary to further observe the downstream inventory consumption in order to improve the market trading.

3、 Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe: in August, domestic PA6 market volatility, the spot price of each brand up and down each other. The upstream caprolactam is generally stable, with a high price, and a general support for the cost end of PA6. The inventory of downstream factories is sufficient and the inquiry intention is general. The business mentality is not strong, the actual order has the profit to move the single operation, the market presents the trend of mutual game between cost and demand. It is expected that the PA6 market will continue to fluctuate in a narrow range in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic xylene market has been stable this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3510 yuan / ton, down 0.57% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Xylene price trend this week is generally stable. Port inventory continued to fall, but it was still high. As of the end of last week, the port inventory in East China was about 134000 tons, down about 9000 tons compared with last week, so the pressure to go to the warehouse still exists. There are over supply, low operating rate of downstream PX producers, weak gasoline blending demand, tepid demand for isomerized xylene, and inactive market transactions. The upstream raw material naphtha continued to rise, the downstream product paraxylene fell, and the marginal profit margin of MX industry remained low. According to CFR calculation, the price difference of px-mx narrowed to about $93 / T. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3600 yuan / ton. The market continued to pay attention to the impact of the geopolitical situation on the supply of crude oil due to the new coronavirus epidemic, the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on the supply of crude oil, the continued spread of the overseas epidemic delayed the impact of economic restart on the demand for crude oil, and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan.

Upstream, crude oil: at the beginning of this week, affected by the hurricane, a large number of refining facilities in the Gulf of Mexico coastal area were closed, and oil prices rose strongly. In the middle of the week, the impact of Hurricane transit was less than expected, and US crude oil and Brent crude oil rose sharply and fell back. As of Friday, spot Brent rose $1.305/barrel to close at $44.875/barrel, up 3% from last week. The longer the oscillation lasts, the greater the possibility of large fluctuations in the future. The future market will pay close attention to the fluctuation and breakthrough of Brent crude oil between $42-46 / barrel. The future crude oil demand outlook and oil price trend mainly depend on the global epidemic trend and the orderly recovery of various countries’ economies. Meanwhile, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the linkage with the US dollar index and the stock market, and how oil producing countries and oil companies adjust their production are also important factors affecting oil prices.

Downstream, in PX market, the listed price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises was about 4600 yuan / ton this week, and the latest external price was about 517 US dollars / ton, FOB Korea and 535 US dollars / ton CFR China, down about 14 US dollars / ton compared with last week. It is expected that the short-term PX market will be a small correction. In terms of PTA market, this week’s market price fell back. The domestic PTA spot market price is about 3574 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 447 US dollars / ton CFR China. PTA price is expected to maintain a stable trend next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec’s o-benzene quotation was stable, with the price of 4400 yuan / ton. The external price of o-benzene was about 530 US dollars / ton, FOB Korea and 545 US dollars / ton CFR China, up about 20 US dollars / ton and 10 US dollars / ton respectively compared with last week. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will rise slightly next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil drilling and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the continuous spread of the global second epidemic on the economic restart of crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the geopolitical situation of the Middle East and China and the United States, and the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on crude oil supply, the impact of the continued spread of overseas epidemic on the demand for crude oil due to the economic restart, and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan. Overall, it is expected that xylene prices in the domestic market will continue to fluctuate slightly next week.

In August 2020, the domestic market price of 1 ᦇ antimony ingot will rise. The average price of domestic market will be 36875 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 38375 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 1500 yuan / ton or 4.07%.

On August 30, the antimony commodity index was 53.42, unchanged with yesterday, down 47.79% from 102.32 (2012-10-16), and 13.71% higher than 46.98, the lowest point on December 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-08 to now).

This month, the price of antimony products increased for three consecutive days from August 10 to 13, mainly due to the tight supply of raw materials. The manufacturers were reluctant to sell related products, so they raised the ex factory prices continuously, and the market prices of manufacturers kept rising. As of the 31st day, the average price of 2 × low bismuth antimony ingot, 1 × antimony ingot, 0 × antimony ingot and 2 × high bismuth antimony ingot were 37250 yuan / ton, 37750 yuan / ton, 38750 yuan / ton and 35750 yuan / ton respectively. The market price of antimony trioxide keeps stable with the trend of antimony ingot. As of 29, 99.5% of the average price of antimony trioxide was 34500 yuan / ton, and 99.8% was at 36000 yuan / ton. Compared with the same period of last month, it increased by 1250-1500 yuan / ton.

According to the statistics of antimony trioxide output of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, in June 2020, the output of antimony trioxide was 8559 tons, with a month on month increase of 5.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.6%; from January to June, the output of antimony trioxide was 42588 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%. Judging from the above enterprises’ production of antimony trioxide by province, from January to June 2020, the top five provinces and regions with antimony trioxide output ranking first are Hunan 25939 tons, Guangxi 7975 tons, Guangdong 4818 tons, Yunnan 1982 tons and Guizhou 1831 tons, accounting for 60.9%, 18.7%, 11.3%, 4.7% and 4.3% of the total output, respectively. In the first half of the year, domestic production was relatively stable, and the supply was slightly tight, and the related manufacturers were reluctant to sell.

According to the business association, at present, antimony products manufacturers mainly support prices, and metal market fluctuates frequently in recent years. However, when the transaction volume of antimony market is relatively low, most manufacturers mainly support the price, and it is expected that the future market price will remain high and consolidate.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on August 24 was 1883 yuan / ton, and that on August 28 was 1866 yuan / ton. The price fell by 0.88% during the week.

According to the business club’s big list data, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on August 24 was 2218 yuan / ton, and that on August 28 was 2268 yuan / ton. The price rose by 2.25% in the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of monoammonium phosphate fell slightly, and the operating rate of enterprises was about 75%. In Anhui Province, 55% powdered ammonium was quoted at 1900-1950 yuan / T, and the start-up was stable. In Hubei Province, the ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium is about 1900-1950 yuan / ton, and the mainstream factory quotation of 60% powdered ammonium is 2050-2150 yuan / ton. The stable operation of Henan market, 55% ammonium powder factory quotation of 1900 yuan / ton, stable start-up. The price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1950 yuan / ton.

This week, the price of diammonium phosphate continued to rise, the operating rate of enterprises was about 60%. At present, the mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei Province is 2300-2350 yuan / ton, that in Shandong Province is 2300-2350 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan Guizhou area is 2300-2450 yuan / ton, and that in Anhui Province is 2200-2450 yuan / ton. In Gansu Province, 64% DAP mainstream factory quotation is 2300-2450 yuan / T. The quotation of 64% diammonium at the first arrival station in Heilongjiang Province is about 2500 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic market of raw material phosphate ore is weak, and the market price has not fluctuated greatly. The on-site trading is cold, the downstream demand is flat, and the mining enterprises mainly keep a steady wait-and-see attitude. At present, the new orders are mostly small orders and mainly for shipping. The domestic price of raw material sulfur is firm and the market continues to rise. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises purchase on demand.

3、 Future forecast

Ammonium phosphate business club analysts believe that due to a small number of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises to make up a small amount of single ammonium market trend is weak. The price of diammonium is rising steadily, and the domestic and foreign market demand continues to rise. It is expected that in the short term, primary ammonium will be dominated by weak operation, while the trend of diammonium will continue to rise.