1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 16900 yuan / ton last Thursday and 17366.67 yuan / ton this Thursday, with a slight increase of 2.76%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic market price of yellow phosphorus rose. Affected by environmental factors, Yunnan’s large factories stopped, the spot of yellow phosphorus was tight, in addition, the downstream stock was prepared before the festival, the price in the yard rose, and the transaction price of new orders was higher. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 17200-17500 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Sichuan is about 17500 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Guizhou is about 17100 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole remained stable and high by the 14th. It was heard that the mine factory had the idea to continue to move towards the high end for the actual price of new orders. At present, the price of 30% grade ammonium phosphate ore in Guizhou is about 400-440 yuan / T, and the price of 22% grade ammonium phosphate ore in railway station is 200-240 yuan / T. the factory price of 30% grade ammonium phosphate ore in Hebei is 570 yuan / T- The price of 28% grade phosphate ore in Guangxi is around 350-380 yuan / ton.

In terms of coke, on the 13th, some coking enterprises started the first round of price increase, with an increase of 110 yuan / ton for dry quenching and 100 yuan / ton for wet quenching. According to the price monitoring of business association, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shanxi is 1880 yuan / ton. Port: origin inventory continued to transfer to port, port inventory rose for six consecutive weeks. The market price of port coke in Shandong increased by about 30 yuan / ton today. At present, the mainstream ex warehouse price of quasi first-class metallurgical coke in port area is about 2150 yuan / ton, and the price of first-class coke is 2250 yuan / ton. With the increase of inquiries in the port market, the trading volume has picked up, some transactions have been made, and the mentality of traders has improved.

Downstream, the phosphoric acid market rose slightly. As of April 13, the quotation in Sichuan was about 4850-5550 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan was about 5200-5400 yuan / ton, that in Beijing was about 4800 yuan / ton, that in Hubei was about 5200-5400 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin was about 5900 yuan / ton, and that in Henan was about 5300-5900 yuan / ton. Some enterprises adjusted the price by 100-150 yuan / ton, and the center of gravity moved up. Overall, the phosphoric acid market is stable and strong.

3、 Future forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the chemical branch of business society believe that the price of yellow phosphorus will rise this week. At present, the spot in the yellow phosphorus yard is tight, the downstream stock preparation is more active before the festival, coupled with the warmer coke delivery and investment, the price of phosphoric acid rises. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will rise steadily in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of April 14, the average factory price reference of domestic butanone market was 8666 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous working day (the reference average price of butanone on the 13th was 8166 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 500 yuan / ton, or 6.12% in a single day; compared with the reference average price of butanone on the 1st (8033 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 633 yuan / ton, or 7.88%.

Butanone rises in half month with export support

Before the Qingming Festival, the domestic butanone market rose slightly, the transaction atmosphere of butanone market was low, the purchase of downstream factories was difficult to improve, and the overall inventory pressure of domestic factories remained unchanged. After the Qingming Festival, the butanone market continued to rise slightly, but the market transaction atmosphere was still tepid, and the domestic downstream demand continued to be cold. On August 9, the butanone price fluctuated downward, and then the market continued to be weak.

Until Monday (12th), butanone export gave some support to the market, butanone market began to rise, the market transaction atmosphere improved, and the overall inventory pressure of domestic factories decreased. On the 14th, affected by the parking of butanone factories in East China and the support given by the continuous increase in exports, the spot supply of butanone in the yard was tight, and the ex factory price of butanone rose sharply, and a certain factory in Shandong Province The factory’s ex factory price of butanone rose to 8800 yuan / ton, 7000 yuan / ton higher than that on the 12th of the week. At present, the phenomenon of market closure is increasing. On the 14th, the factory price reference of domestic butanone was around 8500-9000 yuan / ton, and the average price reference was 8666 yuan / ton. Compared with the 13th, the daily increase was more than 6%, and compared with the beginning of the month, the cumulative increase in half a month was 7.88%.

According to the business news agency, the following is the reference price of butanone in some parts of China in April

The price of products rose and fell from April 1 to April 14

Butanone: RMB 7800-8000 / T RMB 8800-8900 / T + 1000

Butanone: RMB 8000-8300 / T RMB 8800-9000 / T + 800

Butanone market is mainly stable in the short term and still has action power in the long term

At present, the recovery of domestic butanone terminal downstream is still relatively slow, and the operating rate of downstream factories is low as a whole. Butanone prices are mainly supported by exports, while domestic downstream support is weak. At present, butanone factories pay more attention to export orders. Therefore, butanone analysts of business society predict that the probability of butanone market prices to continue to rise sharply in the short term is small, and most of them will maintain high and stable operation until April At the end of the month and the beginning of May, the downstream entity manufacturing industry recovered on a large scale, the time to stimulate domestic demand for butanone came, the action power of butanone market increased, and the market price is expected to rise again.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 2566 yuan / ton on April 6 and 2566 yuan / ton on April 9, which remained stable this week.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, on April 6, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 3150 yuan / ton, and on April 9, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 3150 yuan / ton, which remained stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market of monoammonium phosphate was temporarily stable, and the domestic price remained unchanged. The price remained high and firm, the operating rate dropped, and the business owners issued early orders. The ex factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is 2400-2550 yuan / ton, and that of 58% powdered ammonium is 2550-2650 yuan / ton. It is mainly based on actual negotiation. This week, the trading atmosphere of map was general, and the downstream was purchased on demand, with a wait-and-see attitude.

This week diammonium phosphate deadlocked operation, mainly export-oriented, weak domestic market. This week, the maintenance of some enterprises’ devices was completed, and the operating rate was slightly improved. Spring ploughing has come to an end, and there are many enterprises waiting to develop. This week, 64% of the domestic mainstream of diammonium factory offer 3100-3200 yuan / ton, the actual negotiations. The domestic market is flat and the export market is active.

In terms of raw materials, the current domestic reference price of raw material sulfur is 1443 yuan / ton, and the market is slightly consolidated. After the Qingming Festival, many phosphate rock producing areas in China, including Guizhou, Guangxi, Hebei and other regions, have greatly increased the ex factory price of phosphate rock. Downstream exports are good support, and phosphate rock is mainly in strong operation this week.

3、 Future forecast

Business community ammonium phosphate analysts believe that at present, the cost of raw materials for ammonium phosphate is high, and the downstream demand is limited. Now diammonium phosphate is mainly exported, domestic spring ploughing is coming to an end, and the supply and demand are in balance. It is expected that monoammonium phosphate will keep stable operation in the short term, while diammonium phosphate may be adjusted in a narrow range.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the block list of business associations, toluene fluctuated in a narrow range this week, and the price was weak to maintain stability. On April 4, the price of toluene was 5461 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (April 11), the price was 5452 yuan / ton, down 9 yuan / ton or 0.16% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, Sinopec’s Toluene price adjustment range is – 100 / 0 (yuan / ton). Toluene stocks at ports in East China fell this week. At present, the downstream demand is stable. The trend of toluene mainly follows the fluctuation of crude oil. Crude oil continues to fluctuate, and the guidance is weak. Toluene lacks clear upward momentum and runs weakly and stably in the week. In terms of external market, as of April 9, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was US $680 / T, up US $2 / T or 0.29% from April 2, and the price of imported toluene from East China was US $703 / T, flat from April 2.

Crude oil, this week’s crude oil long short game, price shocks. Good news: US commercial crude oil inventory fell, China and US economic data were strong; bad news: OPEC + decided to gradually increase crude oil production, and the epidemic situation in Europe and other places was severe. On April 1, Brent rose 0.08 USD / barrel, or 0.13%; WTI fell 2.13 USD / barrel, or 3.46%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China continued to decline this week, with domestic goods at 16250 yuan / ton, down 2.9% from last week and up 68.62% from the same period last year. The domestic market has been reorganized and operated, the factory’s supply is tight, the downstream inquiry is increasing, the terminal’s overall willingness to receive goods is weak, and the demand for goods is mainly rigid.

In the PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week was stable compared with last week, with the price at 6400 yuan / ton, up 48.84% year on year. The operation of domestic p-xylene units is stable as a whole, Sinopec and private enterprises are in normal operation, the on-site operation rate is more than 90%, the on-site supply is normal, and the goods are in good condition. As of April 9, closing prices in Asia were 786-788 USD / T FOB Korea and 804-806 USD / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

In April, some refineries entered the spring inspection, the market supply of unit maintenance decreased, and the industry expected the toluene supply to be tight in April. However, the follow-up of downstream demand is still weak, and the wait-and-see sentiment of cargo holders is strong. It is expected that toluene will still follow the fluctuation of crude oil in the short term. Focus on the impact of crude oil and gasoline blending price trend, toluene unit spring maintenance dynamic, toluene late arrival and downstream demand change on toluene price.

Market analysis: after the Qingming Festival, the spot price of cotton rose slightly, with an increase of about 100 yuan / ton. On the 9th, the price index of domestic cotton 3128 was 15369 yuan / ton. In the early period of delivery, 26S cotton yarn was slightly better than 32S cotton yarn. In recent days, yarn prices stabilized after some transactions, mainly loose. Cotton yarn early callback basically in place, for downstream weaving, fabrics, clothing and other links to make a part of the profit space. Affected by the rebound of overseas epidemic situation and the decline of cotton price, the international cotton yarn market began to weaken, and the price of imported yarn continued to decline. On April 9, the main cotton yarn 2109 contract price of zhengshangsuo rose 1.06% yesterday, with the opening price of 22165 yuan / ton and the settlement price of 22255 yuan / ton.

Downstream market: downstream domestic yarn, grey cloth inventory low increased slightly. In the first and middle of April, the willingness of textile mills to replenish stock began to pick up, and the enterprises were still cautious in receiving orders, and the replenishment was mainly based on rigid demand. Autumn and winter orders in April have been issued, although it is still mainly exploratory delivery, the price is also lower, but for yarn and fabric enterprises, it is still good news. According to the prosperity monitoring results of the circulation branch of China Textile Federation, from February to March 2021, the prosperity index of the managers of the national textile and garment professional market was 53.12, up 4.03 percentage points from 49.09 in January, and from various indicators, the prosperity index rose significantly compared with January, indicating that the downstream market as a whole maintained a healthy operation.

Future forecast: after the fermentation of market worries caused by Xinjiang cotton, the futures prices of cotton and cotton yarn rebounded, but the trading of cotton yarn market did not show obvious signs of improvement. At present, the atmosphere of cotton yarn market is light, the prices of chemical fiber yarn and cotton yarn have declined, the overall purchasing demand of textile industry is at a low level, the cotton yarn market is mainly wait-and-see, and the order situation is still concerned in the later stage. It is estimated that the future market is still low It will remain low.