1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, copper prices fell slightly on the 19th. The spot copper price was 74871.67 yuan / ton, down 1.12% from 75721.67 yuan / ton on the previous trading day, up 29.19% from the beginning of the year and 71.13% from the same period last year. LME3 copper showed a weak trend, closing at US $10258.5, down 1.51%. Shanghai copper showed a downward trend, closing at 74090 yuan, down 2.01%. The main international copper contract closed at 66220 yuan, down 1.88%.

As the data of new housing starts in the United States in April was far less than expected, the market economy showed a slow recovery trend, which made the market worry rise again. In addition, the oil price also weakened, which dragged down the trend of copper price. At present, the copper price is still at a high level, the high cost of raw materials continues to squeeze the profits of the cable industry, and the affordability of small and medium-sized enterprises is limited; Affected by high prices and other factors, the consumption peak season of the downstream market is not strong, the terminal demand is suppressed, and the production of the automobile industry is limited due to the shortage of chips. It is expected that the copper price will maintain a wide fluctuation trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the price of chlorinated paraffin rose this week. On May 10, the average price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5766 yuan / ton, and on May 14, the average price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5866 yuan / ton, up 1.78% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic price of chlorinated paraffin 52 was stable during the week. At present, the ex factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui is 5600-5900 yuan / ton, that in Northeast is 5700 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 5000-5500 yuan / ton, that in Shaanxi is 6000 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong is 5000-5400 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the liquid wax market was stable this week, with good trading. Downstream on-demand procurement, tight supply, stable operation in the short term. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine was low this week, with large regional differences and less inventory.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts think. At present, the chlorinated paraffin raw material market is stable, the downstream demand is good, and the market trading volume is increasing. It is expected that the market of chlorinated paraffin will be strong in the short term and the price will continue to rise. It is suggested to pay attention to the raw material market and downstream follow-up situation.

Spot precious metal prices were weak during the year, and prices rebounded in April

According to business news agency data, on May 17, the average price of silver market in the morning was 5639.33 yuan / kg, up 2.57% in the day, up 6.91% from 5321.67 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (May 1); Compared with the spot price of silver at the beginning of the year (01.01), it was 5550 yuan / kg, an increase of 2.51%.

On May 17, the spot price of gold was 385.59 yuan / g, up 1.6% in the day, 4.5% higher than the average price of 369 yuan / g in the early morning of may (5.1); Compared with the spot price of gold at the beginning of the year (01.01), it was 392.70 yuan / g, down 1.81%.

US data at a glance

In April, the consumer price index (CPI) of the United States increased by 4.2%, the biggest increase in 13 years, and the producer price index (PPI) increased by 6.2%, the biggest increase in history.

In theory, precious metals are the best choice to fight against inflation. At present, it is in the best interests of the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low and the US dollar devaluation. At present, economic data does not support the operation of raising interest rates, which is beneficial to precious metals to a certain extent.

Frequent geopolitical events

At present, the situation in the Middle East is sudden, and the conflict between Palestine and Israel breaks out again, which to a certain extent causes the market risk aversion.

Silver consumption expected to improve

In terms of physical consumption, the industrial demand for silver and platinum is expected to grow strongly driven by economic recovery, especially driven by the concept of green and renewable energy.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable this week. By the end of the week, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate was 2880 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 2880 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 23.61%. On May 14, the commodity index of ammonium nitrate was 151.58, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 4.32% compared with 158.42 (2021-04-08), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 95.92% compared with 77.37, the lowest point on October 31, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from February 1, 2013 to now).

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market maintained a high level. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started their plants normally, and the supply of ammonium nitrate in the yard was normal. Some manufacturers reported that the delivery situation was general, and the price trend of manufacturers maintained a high level. Recently, the supply of goods in the yard was tight, and the transportation was normal, so the market price of ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream is purchased on demand. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start work normally, and the price trend of some manufacturers is temporarily stable. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation in Shaanxi is 2600-2700 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 2200-2300 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei is 3000-3300 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic price of concentrated nitric acid was temporarily stable, with the weekend price of 2266.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 2266.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu chemical quoted 2200 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe quoted 2200 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai quoted 2400 yuan / ton. Shaanxi Xinghua quoted 2150 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic overhaul units have been running normally, the market supply of concentrated nitric acid is normal, the goods on site are in general, the price trend of nitric acid on site remains stable, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia dropped slightly this week, with the weekend price of 3830 yuan / ton, down 0.69% from 3856.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The start-up of liquid ammonia plant in the yard was normal, the spot supply in the yard was normal, and the price trend of liquid ammonia Market declined slightly. In terms of fundamentals, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province was lower. Due to the rising inventory pressure, the operating rate of manufacturers remained at a reasonable level, and there was a certain price difference with other regions in China, the price of liquid ammonia fell slightly. The ammonia quantity in Shandong Province is basically in the balance of supply and demand, which still has some support for the price. In the downstream, the agricultural fertilizer consumption has increased, the downstream demand is general, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

In the near future, the demand of downstream civil explosive industry is normal, and the production and marketing of nitro compound fertilizer is normal, so the price trend of raw material market has a small decline. However, the spot supply of ammonium nitrate in the market is general, and the lower cost has a certain negative impact. The ammonium nitrate analysts of business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may decline slightly in the later period.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of DOP after the festival fluctuated and rose sharply, and then stabilized and fell back. As of May 14, DOP price was 13725.00 yuan / ton, up 10.02% from 12475.00 yuan / ton of DOP price on May 1, the beginning of the month. In May, the plasticizer market rose sharply, raw material prices fell after a big rise, and the plasticizer market surged and stabilized.

Raw material cost rises and falls back

From the trend chart of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride prices, the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride will fall after saving significantly, the cost of DOP raw materials will stabilize after rising, and the downward pressure of DOP will increase and the driving force will weaken.

Market overview and future market expectation

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst with DOP data from business agency, believes that the cost of DOP raw materials has risen significantly after the festival, which stimulated the sharp rise of DOP prices, stabilized the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride 10 days later, the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride fell on 14 days, the cost of raw materials decreased, and DOP kept up sluggish. Generally speaking, the rise of the DOP market in the future market is weak, and the price of the later market is expected to be weak temporarily stable.