1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic LNG on February 25 was 2933.33 yuan / ton, down 0.23% compared with the previous day, up 2.33% compared with last Thursday (18th), and down 8.05% compared with the same period last year.

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

In the first week after the festival, the domestic LNG market rose. At the end of the holiday, the logistics recovered, the lower reaches returned to the market one after another, just needed to replenish, the effect of reducing the price of the liquid factory before the festival was acceptable, the stock pressure was not great, the liquid price rose actively, a few areas still reduced the price, the market rose more and fell less, and the trading atmosphere was good. Entering this week, the market ushered in an inflection point, liquid factory shipment pressure, the price began to fall, has been less than 3000 yuan / ton. Since February 20, PetroChina has reduced the price of feed gas for its direct supply liquid plants, increasing the price adjustment space of liquid plants. Meanwhile, the liquid plants such as Huanggang in Hubei Province have started up for sale, and the market supply is increasingly sufficient. However, due to insufficient follow-up of terminal demand, the situation of oversupply is revealed. In addition, with the recent rise of temperature, the price of domestic liquefied natural gas has declined steadily. However, the current price is low, so it is not easy to adjust Deep down, mostly to 50-150 yuan / ton fluctuation consolidation, the future is difficult to say optimistic.

 

According to data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on February 25 was 2933.33 yuan / ton, up 2.33% from last Thursday (18th) and down 8.05% from the same period last year. On the 25th, the price in Inner Mongolia was 2800-3100 yuan / ton, with a daily drop of 30-100 yuan / ton; in Shaanxi, 2930-3550 yuan / ton, with a daily drop of 50-100 yuan / ton; in Shanxi, 3000-3250 yuan / ton, with a daily drop of 100 yuan / ton; in Ningxia, 2950-3000 yuan / ton, with a temporary price stability; in Henan, 3400-3500 yuan / ton, with a daily rise of 100 yuan / ton; in Hebei, 3250-3300 yuan / ton, with a daily drop of 50-150 yuan / ton.

 

Date of quotation (yuan / ton)

Inner Mongolia: LNG 2800-3100 February 25

Shaanxi LNG 2930-3550 February 25

Shanxi LNG 3000-3250 February 25

Ningxia LNG 2950-3000 February 25

Hebei LNG 3250-3300 February 25

Henan LNG 3400-3500 February 25

Downstream products are mixed:

 

In recent years, the domestic methanol market has picked up slightly. Recently, the domestic methanol market rebounded slowly. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, as of February 25, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 2282 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 2.25% and a year-on-year increase of 13.45%. After the festival, the downstream enterprises replenish goods appropriately, the logistics is restored, and the freight is reduced. Domestic methanol market recovered slowly. In the future, traders’ willingness to hold goods is not strong, they have to ship goods at high prices one after another, market buying remains just in demand, and transaction is weak. Business community methanol analysts expect that the domestic methanol market in the short term consolidation.

 

Liquid ammonia. On February 24, the domestic liquid ammonia market rose slightly. Before and after the Spring Festival, the liquid ammonia market has been tepid, but since this week, the market has risen. According to the monitoring of the business community, the liquid ammonia market has risen by 1.52% since this week. Agricultural demand started in succession, the willingness of terminal procurement gradually increased, and the agricultural procurement in mainstream areas was cautious; the starting load of downstream compound fertilizer increased, and some downstream products were still cautious, most of them went with the market. The price of liquid ammonia is expected to rise in the near future.

 

Urea, Shandong urea mainstream factory price rise. On February 24, the reference price of urea was 2190.00, which increased by 6.31% compared with February 1 (2060.00). In late February, the urea market in Shandong was mainly in a slight fluctuation. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand is gradually increasing, the industrial demand is better, the urea supply is increasing, the international urea price is rising, and the domestic urea market is expected to rise slightly in the short term.

 

Dichloromethane, on the 23rd, the market price of methane chloride in Shandong continued to rise. The manufacturer’s offer was increased by 50 yuan / ton. The mainstream ex factory price of dichloromethane was between 3300-3550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream ex factory price of trichloromethane was about 2680-2850 yuan / ton, which is expected to remain high in the short term.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Analysts of LNG from business news agency believe that: at present, the market supply is increasingly sufficient, but the demand follow-up is insufficient, and the situation of oversupply is revealed. Moreover, with the recent rise of temperature and the interweaving of long and short, the domestic LNG price has stopped rising and turned to falling. However, the current price is low, so it is not easy to fall deeply, and the narrow range adjustment is the main. It is difficult to be optimistic in the future.

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitored by the business society (the average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), the mainstream average price of PVC in China on February 24 was 8825 yuan / ton, up 20.07% from 7350 yuan / ton last Wednesday (17th), 23% for the whole month, and 33.97% compared with the same period last year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The PVC market rose in February, with a strong rise after the festival, up about 23% in the whole month. Before the Spring Festival, the PVC market rose, but on the eve of the holiday, most of the downstream companies stopped work for holidays, and the demand decreased. The PVC manufacturers started work more stably, and the market supply was sufficient, so the increase was small. After the festival, crude oil led the energy and chemical industry to advance rapidly. PVC was not outdone and actively adjusted its price. In the first week after the festival, it rose by 3.74%. Some enterprises closed their offer and stopped reporting to wait and see the market. This week, the PVC futures station was above 8600 yuan / ton, driving the spot market to rise in a large area. The enterprises that stopped reporting in the early stage recovered one after another, and the high prices came out frequently. Now the mainstream regional quotation (calcium carbide SG5) has risen to 8600-8950 yuan / ton, and the price of type 8 has risen to 9000 yuan / ton. Just a few days after the festival, the enterprises increased more than 1000 yuan, and the price support sentiment is still strong. As of the 24th, the mainstream average price of PVC rose 20.07% in 7 days. Under the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the industry actively entered the market and the market was positive.

 

At present, the downstream enterprises are reworking one after another. The downstream enterprises start work earlier than in previous years. The demand side support is gradually strengthened. After the festival, they just need to replenish, and the demand is increasing. At the same time, due to the tight supply of international goods due to force majeure, the export of PVC is warmer, and the rising price of raw material calcium carbide and other favorable factors, the trend of PVC may be strong and upward.

 

In terms of spot, the mainstream quotation range of pvc5 calcium carbide in China is around 8600-8950 yuan / ton. The main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in East China is around 8600-8900 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Hebei is 8850-8950 yuan / ton, the range of pvc5 calcium carbide in Hangzhou is 8730-8850 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Changzhou is 8750-8850 yuan / ton, and the main stream price of PVC common calcium carbide in Guangzhou is 8820-8950 yuan / ton.

 

Futures, after the festival before the market, prices rose sharply, 22 limit, boost the spot market. On the 23rd, the main PVC futures contract 2105 opened at 8650 yuan / ton and closed at 8610 yuan / ton. The settlement price of the previous day was 8450 yuan / ton, up 1.89%. The trading range was 8480-8905 yuan / ton, with 660785 transactions and 322112 positions.

 

Regional variety: February 24, 2007

Changzhou ﹣ PVC ﹣ calcium carbide method ﹣ 8750-8850 yuan / ton

Guangzhou ﹣ PVC ﹣ calcium carbide method ﹣ 8820-8950 yuan / ton

Hebei PVC calcium carbide method 8850-8950 yuan / ton

Hangzhou ﹣ PVC ﹣ calcium carbide method ﹣ 8730-8850 yuan / ton

 

Upstream crude oil: on February 23, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States dropped slightly, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $61.67/barrel, down US $0.03. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose slightly, the settlement price of the main contract was $64.48/barrel, or $0.12.

 

Ethylene, the recent external ethylene market overall upward trend. The price of ethylene in Asia rose. By the 23rd, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 978-984 US dollars / ton, up 90 US dollars / ton, CFR Southeast Asia quoted 953-959 US dollars / ton, up 90 US dollars / ton. The price of ethylene market in Europe rose slightly. By the 23rd, FD northwest Europe quoted 1182-1193 US dollars / ton, up 5 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe quoted 1174-1183 US dollars / ton, up 5 US dollars / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States soared. By the 23rd, the quotation of FD US Gulf was 1057-1069 US dollars / ton, up 22 US dollars / ton. Recently, the market of ethylene in Europe, America and Asia showed a rising trend. Generally speaking, the trading atmosphere of the whole ethylene external market was active, and the market continued to rise, especially in the United States.

 

On February 24, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose. In late February, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly and rose mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon was high and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. The downstream PVC market has recently risen, downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement, and the market demand exceeds supply. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise slightly in late February.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

PVC analysts of business news agency believe that the PVC market rose in February and returned after the festival. The rising trend was strong. The sharp rise in futures prices led to a large-scale rise in the spot market, with frequent high prices. In addition, the rising price of raw material calcium carbide, the cost support was strong. With the downstream rework in succession, after the festival just need replenishment, demand rise, and export warm and other positive factors, PVC is expected to be strong in the short term, still rising expectations, but the rise may be narrower than the previous period, mainly high consolidation.

PVA

1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic market price of mixed xylene showed an upward trend this week. On February 9, the price of mixed xylene was 4670 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (February 21), the price was 5120 yuan / ton, up 450 yuan / ton or 9.64% compared with that before the festival.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

From February 10 to 21, Sinopec’s mixed xylene increased by 300-500 yuan / ton. During the Spring Festival, affected by crude oil and cold weather in the United States, energy and chemical products rose. The domestic xylene market was boosted by favorable conditions, and the price rose strongly. Asian PX prices rose due to unscheduled shutdown of some devices and reduced supply. However, there is little change in domestic downstream devices, and the demand follow-up is weak, which limits the growth of xylene. In terms of external market, as of February 19, the price of South Korea’s imported mixed xylene was 697 US dollars / ton, up 56 US dollars / ton or 8.74% on February 12, and the reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 718 US dollars / ton, up 58 US dollars / ton or 8.79% on February 12.

 

In terms of crude oil, during the Spring Festival, affected by the extremely cold weather in the United States, the operating rate of refineries declined, the inventory of refined oil decreased significantly, and the demand for heating oil increased, which was favorable for oil prices. On February 12, Brent rose $2.125/barrel, or 3.47%; WTI rose $2.39/barrel, or 4.11%.

 

Downstream, PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price showed an upward trend this week, the average price at the weekend was 5700 yuan / ton, up 7.55% compared with that before the festival, down 9.52% year on year. The operating rate of PX in China is about 60%, and that of p-xylene unit in Asia is about 60%. During the Spring Festival, the earthquake in Japan, Vietnam a set of device shutdown, PX production was affected. In the short term, the domestic PX market continued to go to the warehouse. By the end of the week, the closing price of PX market in Asia was 762-764 USD / T, FOB Korea and 780-782 USD / T CFR China.

 

In terms of PTA market, PTA prices in East China rose slightly. On February 21, the price was 4119 yuan / ton, up 2.15% compared with that before the festival and down 8.14% compared with that in the same period last year. Domestic PTA started at 87.06%. During the Spring Festival, PTA Yisheng Hainan’s 2 million ton large plant had problems and is expected to be difficult to restart in February. Other PTA plants are in normal operation, and it is expected that PTA supply pressure will remain the same.

 

In terms of ox market, the price of ox in East China was 5500 yuan / ton on Sunday, up 10% compared with that before the festival. The cost of o-benzene and the external quotation rose; the domestic supply of o-benzene was sufficient; the downstream market rose, the market of phthalic anhydride fluctuated, the plasticizer DOP market rose sharply, and the transaction of o-benzene increased.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

 

Mixed xylene market ushered in a good start, crude oil support was strong, the bulk market atmosphere was warm, and the price rose generally. But demand limits gains. Overall, it is expected that the price of mixed xylene will continue to follow the “trend”. Continue to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and the impact of crude oil and external market on the price of mixed xylene.

PVA

1、 Price trend

 

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of baking soda is stable for the time being. On February 22, the average price in domestic market was 1496.67 yuan / ton. On February 21, the commodity index of baking soda was 99.34, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.36% from 121.68 (2020-10-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 12.54% from 88.27, the lowest point on December 22, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

According to the news agency, the price of sodium bicarbonate runs smoothly, and the downstream market shipment is fair. At present, the price of sodium bicarbonate in Henan is about 1420-1600 yuan, which is the mainstream price in the market. The downstream demand is acceptable. It is expected that the price will be slightly consolidated in the near future. The price of baking soda in Hebei is about 1350-1550 yuan / ton, which is the mainstream price in the market, and the downstream demand is acceptable.

 

In terms of raw materials: the domestic soda production started slowly after the festival, but the market atmosphere is still relatively light. The downstream manufacturers are cautious and wait-and-see attitude is dominant. It is expected that in the later stage, the operation of soda production will be mainly stable and small. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1450-1550 yuan / ton. During the Spring Festival, there are few inquiries and transactions. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be temporarily stable in the short term. The price of soda ash in Central China is stable with small movements. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1300-1400 yuan / ton. During the Spring Festival, there are few inquiries and transactions. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be stable with small movements in the short term.

 

Demand side: downstream medicine, textile, food demand for baking soda is fair, baking soda prices temporarily stable. Analysts of business news agency think: the domestic soda market is temporarily stable after the festival, the market atmosphere is light, and the market has not changed greatly. The downstream manufacturers are cautious and wait-and-see attitude is dominant. It is expected that the general market operation of soda will be maintained in the later period. The situation of soda ash in the upstream is more stable than that in the downstream. In general, the short-term price of sodium bicarbonate may maintain a temporary stable trend, and in particular, it depends on the demand of the downstream market.

PVA

1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitored by the business community (the average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), on February 19, the average mainstream price of PVC in China was 7575 yuan / ton, up 3.74% from 7350 yuan / ton before the festival (9th), and 14.23% from the same period last year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

After the holiday, the PVC market rose, and the price continued to rise in the first two days of construction, with a total increase of 3.74%. The daily increase of enterprises was about 100-300 yuan / ton. Now some quotations have risen to more than 8000 yuan / ton, and the market price is not much. Some of them stopped to wait and see. The first wave of price increase after the Spring Festival has started. Two days after the start of construction, the futures price rose sharply, driving the spot price. Meanwhile, during the Spring Festival, due to the extremely cold weather in the United States, the production capacity decreased, the international supply was tight, and the PVC export volume increased, which helped the PVC price rise. At present, there are too many enterprises that stop reporting PVC. They mainly issue orders and are cautious about the market. They are bullish. This year, the downstream demand started ahead of schedule, and the market is expected to be good. Boosted by the positive factors of rising futures price, good export and stronger demand, the PVC market is relatively strong, and the price is expected to continue to rise.

 

In terms of spot, the mainstream quotation range of pvc5 calcium carbide in China is around 7750-8050 yuan / ton. The main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in East China is around 7900-8000 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Hebei is 7750-7900 yuan / ton, the range of pvc5 calcium carbide in Hangzhou is 7900-8050 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Changzhou is 8000-8050 yuan / ton, and the main stream price of PVC common calcium carbide in Guangzhou is 8000-8150 yuan / ton.

 

Futures, futures prices rose, boosting the spot market. On the 19th, the main PVC futures contract 2105 opened at 7960 yuan / ton and closed at 8220 yuan / ton. The settlement price of the previous day was 7955 yuan / ton, up 3.33%. The trading range was 7885-8250 yuan / ton, with 395602 transactions and 358610 positions.

 

Regional varieties 19 Feb 2005

Changzhou PVC calcium carbide process: 8000-8050 yuan / ton

Guangzhou ﹣ PVC ﹣ calcium carbide method ﹣ 8000-8150 yuan / ton

Hebei PVC calcium carbide process: 7750-7900 yuan / ton

Hangzhou ﹣ PVC ﹣ calcium carbide method ﹣ 7900-8050 yuan / ton

 

Upstream crude oil: on February 18, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $60.53/barrel, down US $0.61. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell, settlement price rose, settlement price of the main contract at 63.93 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 0.59 U.S. dollars. On Thursday, oil prices rose. Brent once rose above US $65, and then the market high fell, mainly due to the impact of investment profit taking. Previously, due to the extremely cold weather in the United States, the decline of production capacity and the increase of demand have driven oil prices to rise for several days. Despite the sharp reduction of US crude oil inventory, the market is still uneasy about the current virtual high oil price, and the high selling has led to the decline of oil prices.

 

Ethylene, the recent external ethylene market overall upward trend. Asia’s ethylene market prices rose slightly. As of the 18th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $852-860 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $827-835 / T. The price of ethylene market in Europe increased greatly. By the 18th, FD in northwest Europe closed at US $1164-1177 / T, CIF in northwest Europe closed at US $1150-1161 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States soared. By the 18th, the price was 914-926 US dollars / ton. Recently, the ethylene market in Europe, America and Asia showed a rising trend. Generally speaking, during the Spring Festival holiday, the whole ethylene market kept rising, the market trading atmosphere was warm and the transaction was positive.

 

On February 19, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China was temporarily stable, and the reference price was 3050.00, which was 1.08% lower than that on February 1 (3083.33). The price of raw material orchid charcoal was high and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. The downstream PVC market has risen slightly recently. The downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about purchasing calcium carbide. The output of calcium carbide has risen, and the market supply exceeds the demand. Calcium carbide in the future fluctuated slightly.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

PVC analysts of business news agency believe that the current market is strong, PVC futures prices are rising, spot market prices are rising along with it, and the export volume is increasing, as well as downstream enterprises start earlier than in previous years, and the demand side support is gradually stronger. Under the multiple positive support, the market expectation is good, and it is expected that the PVC market will continue to rise in the short term.

PVA