According to the monitoring data of business society, as of March 14, the average price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was RMB 14966 / T, down 1.10% compared with the price of 1 March (average price of n-butanol reference of 15133 yuan / ton).

In a short 10 day history, butanol prices soared 64 percent

Since February 18, after the Spring Festival, in just ten days, the domestic n-butanol market has staged a scene that has not passed in the past decade. The price of n-butanol has risen 64% in ten days.

Stability under high position: butanol market fell in March

The high level of butanol is nearly March. However, the hidden danger of the surge appeared in early March. The downstream conflict with high prices gradually rose, the market activity atmosphere was stagnant. Since March, the price of the quotation of n-butanol factory gradually declined, and the mentality of the industry weakened some downstream users to digest the raw material reserve, and the high-end market quotation was under pressure. By 5 days, the factory price reference of n-butanol in Shandong Province was made In 14000-15000 yuan / ton, the price fell 300-800 yuan / ton from the first day, down more than 5% and the market remained low.

Tenacious trend to meet rebound price and set “high point” again

On August 8, stimulated by the maintenance of foreign octanol units, the domestic downstream exports of n-butanol increased, the market trading atmosphere was warmer, the factory limited orders were received, and the ex factory price of n-butanol rebounded sharply. On the 10th, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province rose to 15200-15500 yuan / T, with the average price reference at 15300 yuan / T, and the market price rebounded rapidly, and the price rose 500-1200 yuan / T compared with that of 5 days, which has exceeded the month On the first day, the price reached a high of nearly 10 years.

“Deadlock” in the downstream cost bearing heavy n-butanol transaction

However, the so-called “high place is too cold”, the market of n-butanol under high level is once again in a situation of domestic demand turning light, and the cost pressure is increasing. The main downstream butyl alcohol users slow down the purchase of raw materials, the new transaction atmosphere of new orders in the market is flat, the normal butanol industry is active in shipping, and the focus of the talks in the n-butanol market on November and December has been moving down continuously, the high-end offer is slow to go, and the inventory of n-butanol in some factories is tired In addition, the atmosphere in the field is weak and cold.

As of the 14th day, the factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was near the range of 14700-15300 yuan / T, and the low-end quotation fell to 14500 yuan / T. compared with two days ago, the maximum decline was nearly 1000 yuan / T, and the average price of n-butanol was RMB 14966 / T. compared with 10 days, the average price was decreased by 334 yuan / T, down 2.18% in two days. Compared with the previous day, the price was down 166 yuan / ton, or 1.10%.

Upstream, according to the price map of business agency, affected by upstream and downstream, propylene prices rose repeatedly in the second half of February, which was at a high level for many years. At the beginning of the month, it was stable. On the 4th, the price began to decline, and the price generally rose on the 8th. The two days rose 150-250 yuan / ton, and the price was generally stable. The current market transaction was between 8450 yuan and 8650 yuan / ton, with the mainstream price of about 8450 yuan / ton. The low temperature impact of the United States is still in existence, and the capacity is generally recovered; the impact of propylene in Japan has been reduced and the capacity is slightly recovered.

Demand has a profound impact on the short-term n-butanol market, which is still likely to continue to loosen

From the current trend, although the price of butanol is down again, the overall reduction is not large, the high-end offer price is still at 15300 yuan / ton, and the market is still in high-level operation. Therefore, the analysts of normal butanol of business agency believe that, from the current factory price of n-butanol, it is difficult to stimulate a large-scale replenishment in the downstream. Downstream customers continue to wait for the purchase, and the demand can not be improved In other words, the inventory of n-butanol plant will gradually accumulate, so the analysts of normal butanol data of business agency believe that the factory will continue to reduce the delivery price of n-butanol in order to stimulate more shipments, and the market will continue to weaken and loosen.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, toluene rose first and then fell this week, and the price rose slightly compared with last week. On March 7, the price of toluene was 5825 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (March 14), the price was 5877.5 yuan / ton, up 52.5 yuan / ton or 0.9% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, Sinopec’s Toluene price adjustment range is – 50 / + 300 (yuan / ton). Toluene stocks at ports in East and South China fell this week. Toluene market is limited by weak downstream demand, general negotiation within the week, and market participants are cautious. In terms of external market, the price range of toluene in external market fluctuated this week. As of March 12, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 742 US dollars / ton, up 7 US dollars / ton or 0.95% compared with March 5. The price of imported toluene from East China was 760 US dollars / ton, stable compared with March 5.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil showed a rising and falling trend this week. OPEC + decided to extend production reduction, and OPEC raised its oil demand forecast to support oil prices. However, the rapid rise caused market concerns. On March 5, Brent rose $0.28/barrel, or 0.41%; WTI fell $0.28/barrel, or 0.42%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China dropped slightly this week, with domestic goods at 19166.67 yuan / ton, down 0.43% from last week and up 72.67% from the same period last year. The domestic market was reorganized and operated, the offer on the floor moved down, the trading atmosphere was light, the terminal’s overall willingness to receive goods was weak, the purchase was just needed, and the trading and buying were general.

In the PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week was stable compared with last week, at 6700 yuan / ton, up 42.55% over the beginning of the year and 21.82% over the same period last year. The domestic PX operating rate is more than 60%, and the domestic supply of p-xylene is general. As of the 12th, the closing prices in Asia were $838-840 / T FOB Korea and $856-858 / T CFR China. South Korea’s price decline was mainly driven by the overall price decline of polyester industry.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Toluene cost side support is strong; downstream demand follow-up is general, rigid demand is the main. It is expected that the price of toluene will be mainly consolidated in the short term. We will continue to pay attention to the international trend of crude oil, the arrival of toluene in Hong Kong, the dynamic situation of domestic enterprises and the impact of downstream demand changes on the price of toluene.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the domestic PP market was mainly volatile in the second week of March, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell with each other. As of March 12, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 9400.00 yuan / ton, with a 0.53% decrease compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a 11.24% increase compared with the same period of last month.

Cause analysis

PP upstream propylene domestic market increased significantly in early stage, and began to enter the finishing market in March. At present, the price of propylene is relatively high, and the international crude oil is still rising well. This week, the price of propylene rose after a correction. The recovery of overseas units affected by the disaster in February is limited, and it will take time for propylene production to recover significantly. However, the downstream purchasing intention is not strong, and the strategy is inclined to take as you like. Due to the hot early shipment, the current domestic inventory in the controllable range. It is expected that the recent propylene price will continue to fluctuate and adjust.

The current domestic propylene market high finishing, PP cost side support is acceptable. Friday (12) the main futures high open shock, boost market confidence. The signing of the U.S. economic stimulus bill stimulated the price of crude oil, and PP products in the far end and downstream were also affected. This week, the overall operating rate of the industry is more than 90%, the wire drawing material production is still stable at about 30%, and the supply is relatively abundant. At present, the PP price range is high. Although the domestic resumption of work is fast after the festival, the demand is rapidly expanding, but the downstream factories gradually resist the high price orders, and the willingness to receive goods is not strong. Floor trading is not smooth, there is a price reduction business single operation. At the same time, the two kinds of oil and social inventory also increased.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business community, as of March 12, the mainstream offers of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) also rose sharply, with the price of about 9400 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.88% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a rise of 10.37% compared with the same period last month. In terms of production scheduling, domestic fiber PP accounts for about 13% recently, with stable overall output and abundant supply. The market on the floor is similar to that of wire drawing materials. The demand is stable and the price of goods is high.

At the beginning of March, domestic PP melt blown materials continued to rise, boosted by the rise of raw materials and the rise of outer plate melt blown PP. At present, the benefits are exhausted, and the high-risk areas in China are cleared, the epidemic prevention situation is stable, and the demand for epidemic prevention materials is steadily reduced. At present, PP meltblown material market shocks mainly, spot prices have a certain decline. As of March 12, the average quotation of pph-y1500 sample enterprises monitored by business society was 11033.33 yuan / ton. The overseas epidemic situation is still unclear, and many countries have reported a number of new coronal variant strains, so it is inevitable that the compulsory mask policy will be implemented for a long time. Recently, the price of meltblown materials in the outer panel is relatively stable. There is a contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic meltblown cloth manufacturing market, and the profit point of meltblown PP is still not high.

Future forecast

Business community PP analysts believe that: the second week of March domestic PP spot market trend shock consolidation. The high price of propylene in the upper reaches supported the cost side of PP firmly. Futures rose over the weekend, boosting the mentality of the spot market. The current high price spot market trading situation is not good, let the profit shipping so that the recent PP price stagflation and shock. With the high opening rate of the industry and the negative feedback of downstream demand, the overall inventory of polypropylene began to accumulate. It is expected that the PP market trend in the near future will continue to look for the price balance point and concussion operation.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of March 11, the average price of domestic power grade lithium iron phosphate was 46500.00 yuan / ton, which was 13.41% higher than that of the same period last month and 3.33% higher than that of the same period last week. In 2021, the price of lithium iron phosphate is soaring, the power battery market is quietly changing, becoming the mainstream of the new era, and lithium iron phosphate will usher in a new spring.

Lithium iron phosphate battery successfully counterattacks strong price rebound

The market of LiFePO4 power battery is heating up. Many new energy enterprises begin to favor LiFePO4 battery. The demand for LiFePO4 is rising. With its advantages of higher safety and high cost performance, LiFePO4 has made a strong breakthrough in the transformation of best-selling models. Driven by Model3, more and more best-selling models rush to replace LiFePO4 battery, Recently, Xiaopeng launched the standard range model of P7 rear drive, using the LiFePO4 battery of Ningde era. Under the same configuration, the LiFePO4 battery is 20000 yuan cheaper than the ternary battery. Recently, Tesla eco musk said that it will consider using LiFePO4 battery in more electric vehicles. LiFePO4 has really realized the counter attack and entered the price of LiFePO4 in 2021 All the way up, the raw materials in the upstream also rose sharply. In the future development, lithium iron phosphate is expected to become the mainstream product

Product specifications and quotation (ten thousand yuan / ton) date

Lithium iron phosphate ﹣ power ﹣ 4.4-4.9 ﹣ March 11

Lithium iron phosphate ﹣ energy storage ﹣ 3.8-4.3 ﹣ March 11

Lithium carbonate industrial grade 7.9-8.2 March 11

Lithium carbonate battery grade 8.2-8.5 March 11

Lithium manganate ﹣ power ﹣ 3.85-4.1 ﹣ March 11

Lithium manganate ﹣ capacity type ﹣ 2.9-3.4 ﹣ March 11

Licoo3 ﹣ 33.3-35.6 ﹣ March 11

The rise of lithium iron phosphate industry leads to a sharp rise in raw materials

The growth of lithium iron phosphate demand has driven the rapid growth of lithium carbonate, the raw material. The rise of lithium carbonate is far higher than that of lithium iron phosphate. Since November last year, lithium carbonate has been on the rise. Until 2021, lithium carbonate will rebound and rise rapidly. At present, the reference price of industrial lithium carbonate is 79000 yuan / ton, and the price of battery lithium carbonate is 82000 yuan / ton. Lithium carbonate commodity index: on March 10, the lithium carbonate commodity index was 215.54, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 46.79% compared with 405.10 (2018-01-07), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 118.73% compared with 98.54, the lowest point on October 16, 2014. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

LiFePO4 becomes mainstream battery cost reduces by 72%

On March 3, Xiaopeng launched a new P7 equipped with LiFePO4 battery, bringing the entry price of the car to 229900 yuan, which is only 0100 yuan more than the entry model of BYD Han ev. As BYD’s first model equipped with blade battery, Han EV’s model also uses LiFePO4 battery. The production cost of LiFePO4 battery is greatly reduced, so the sales price is also reduced, so it is a quasi car The main reason for this is that the spring of LiFePO4 is really coming, and perhaps LiFePO4 will become the mainstream of the market in the near future.

According to LiFePO4 analysts of business news agency, in addition to higher safety, the main reason for its popularity is that it can reduce production costs, and its market share is also increasing. It is expected that LiFePO4 will become the mainstream of society in the near future. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of commodities, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community, the market is the opportunity).

According to the price monitoring of the business association, as of March 10, 2021, the average ex factory price of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China is 15860 yuan / ton. The price of viscose staple fiber tends to be stable at a high level. At present, the domestic viscose staple fiber production and marketing enterprises are booming, and the inventory is at a low level.

Price trend of viscose staple fiber

According to the survey, the price of viscose staple fiber has nearly doubled from 8300 yuan per ton in August last year to 16000 yuan per ton at present. In particular, after the year, the price soared, from 12900 / T in early February to 15800 / T, an increase of 22.5%. However, since the beginning of March, the price has gradually stabilized, and the manufacturer’s quotation is basically around 16000 yuan / ton.

Upstream raw materials support high prices

On the one hand, the upstream raw material cost support is sufficient, the upstream raw material cotton linter output is less, the supply is short, the price continues to rise, the performance is stronger.

It can be seen from the annual comparison chart of wood pulp prices monitored by the business society that the domestic pulp prices are at a high level, and the output of pulp mills has increased. According to the data monitored by the business society, the spot price of wood pulp has been in a state of mixed rise and fall recently, but the overall trend is still on the rise. On March 4, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong was 7387.5 yuan / ton, while that of hardwood pulp in Shandong was 6087.5 yuan / ton.

On the other hand, from the perspective of the production capacity and inventory of viscose staple fiber, the production and sales of the enterprise are booming, the inventory is low and the pre-sale volume is large,

From the perspective of downstream demand, downstream mills are resuming production one after another, the demand is rising, the yarn delivery of downstream mills is not wadding, the price of rayon yarn is also at a high level driven by the cost, and the price is stabilizing. Since March, it has been basically around 20000 / T, and the transaction performance is good.

Future forecast

Viscose staple price high finishing, fundamentals stable, prices are still expected to rise slightly.