1、 Price trend

The price of toluene rose this week, according to the bulk list data of business society. On July 25, the price of toluene was 5780 yuan / ton; The price on Sunday (August 1) was 0.52 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton or 0.52% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 72.92%.

2、 Analysis and review

The overall domestic toluene price has not changed much this week. Due to the reduction of supply in South China, the holders are willing to support the price. Crude oil prices rose this week with good cost support, but due to weather and other factors, toluene demand was weak, long and short offset, and the price fluctuated in a narrow range. In terms of external market, as of July 30, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $765 / ton, down US $4 / ton, or 0.52%, compared with July 23.

In terms of crude oil, the spread of isovirus strains dragged down the market mentality, but the inventory of crude oil and refined oil in the United States decreased, and the demand recovery was good, boosting the oil price. On July 16, Brent rose $2.23 / barrel, or 3.01%; WTI rose $1.88/barrel, or 2.61%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China remained stable this week, and the price of domestic goods was 14333.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 35.82% over the same period last year. The domestic TDI market is waiting to be sorted out. The offer of the cargo holder is large, stable and small. The transaction on the floor is not smooth. The negotiation and shipment are mainly focused. The downstream just needs to follow up. The enthusiasm for entering the market is not high, and the atmosphere on the floor is weak.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable for four consecutive weeks this week, with the price at 7100 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 47.92%. As of July 30, the closing prices in Asia were USD 940-942 / T FOB Korea and USD 958-960 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analysts from the chemical branch of business society believe that: at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of U.S. oil drilling platforms and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States and the progress related to the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the US dollar index and stock market linkage.

Crude oil is expected to remain high in the short term, with good cost support; Downstream PX enterprises still have purchase intention and have certain support for toluene demand. Continue to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external market, maintenance dynamics of toluene unit, toluene inventory information and the impact of downstream demand on toluene price.

Aluminum prices fluctuated upward in July, up 2.69% this week

On July 30, the average market price of aluminum ingot was 19856.67 yuan / ton, up 2.69% from the average market price of 19336.677 yuan / ton last Friday.

According to the data of business agency, on July 30, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 19856.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.45% compared with the average market price of 18830 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Taking the average market price of aluminum ingot at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) of 15726.67 yuan / ton as the benchmark price, it has increased by 26.26%.

Summary of aluminum market

Inventory: the social inventory data of aluminum ingots supported the aluminum price. On July 28, according to statistics, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 765000 tons, down 36000 tons compared with the previous week, especially in Shanghai, Wuxi and the South China Sea.

In terms of supply: the second round of storage dumping began, and the second batch of storage dumping was 90000 tons, slightly lower than the 100000 tons generally expected by the market. Due to the impact of the power consumption peak in summer, the power load pressure of China Southern Power Grid has not decreased. Yunnan electrolytic aluminum plant may be required to increase from the previous 25% limit to 30%. Electrolytic aluminum plants in Guizhou and Guangxi also began to limit power slightly two weeks ago, Some aluminum enterprises chose to carry out annual maintenance in advance or reduce the load a little to deal with the resumption of production capacity shut down in Yunnan Province. There was little hope in July, and the monthly reduction was more than 70000. Overall, the second round of negative reserve selling was partially offset.

Future forecast

The market expects that the State Reserve will start to throw away its reserves or at the end of the year, about 50000 tons per month, and the supply is expected to change from tight to balanced in the second half of the year. In addition, Russia plans to increase tariffs on exported aluminum ingots from August to the end of the year, which is expected to have little impact on aluminum prices.

Business analysts believe that the current price range of 18500-20000 yuan / ton is a steady-state shock range formed by the market game. It is expected that the price of aluminum ingot will still operate around 19000 yuan / ton in the near future

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride rose this week. As of July 31, the average price of maleic anhydride by benzene hydrogenation remained at 11500 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.22% compared with the average price of 11250 yuan / ton on July 26, and an increase of 19.17% compared with the same period last month.

On July 31, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 108.33, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.40% from the highest point of 123.67 in the cycle (December 26, 2017), and up 111.66% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the start of domestic benzene maleic anhydride market was basically stable. International crude oil rose and domestic chemical prices rose slightly; The operating rate of unsaturated resin in the downstream decreased, and the resin market was dominated by weak consolidation and just needed procurement. As of the 30th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 10800 yuan / ton, the liquid anhydride in Jiangsu was about 11000 yuan / ton, the solid anhydride in Shanxi was about 11000 yuan / ton, the solid anhydride in Hebei was about 11000 yuan / ton, and the solid anhydride in South China was about 11400 yuan / ton.

Upstream, the price of pure benzene decreased slightly this week. On July 26, the average price of pure benzene was 8210.00 yuan / ton, and on July 31, the average price of pure benzene was 8190.00 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton, down 0.24%. This week, the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong was temporarily stable, at 7950 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 7925 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a decrease of 25 yuan / ton. The overall stable and weak operation is dominated. The price of n-butane decreased slightly, and the price in Shandong was 4650 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 30th week of 2021 (7.26-7.30), there are 41 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 5.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were boric acid (13.26%), acrylic acid (9.90%) and light soda ash (7.41%). A total of 21 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 3 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 3.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were epichlorohydrin (- 8.73%), propylene oxide (- 7.91%) and chloroform (- 5.78%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.46%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the maleic anhydride product analysts of business society, at present, the domestic maleic anhydride market mainly implements early orders, and the factory has no inventory pressure, but the downstream demand is limited, and the maleic anhydride price is under pressure. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will be dominated by weak consolidation in the near future.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of July 29, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 13316.67 yuan / ton, down 9.41% compared with the price at the beginning of the week, up 1.91% compared with the price at the beginning of the month, and down 11.62% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

This week, the epichlorohydrin market was weak, the overall demand performance of the market was poor, the market mentality was negative, the downstream was mainly cautious, the purchase intention was not high, the industry’s shipment was not smooth, the low-cost supply on the site continued to appear, and the market was weak and adjusted.

Upstream propylene, according to the bulk list data of business society, the recent (7.26-7.28) domestic propylene (Shandong) market has not changed much. The average market price on Monday was 7824 yuan / ton and on Wednesday was 7822.18 yuan / ton, down 0.02%.

For downstream epoxy resin, as of July 27, the liquid epoxy resin Market in East China had declined as a whole, and the high-end offer had declined significantly. The mainstream of the local market negotiated the offer of 31500-32000 yuan / ton barrel ex factory price.

Business society epichlorohydrin analysts believe that, on the whole, the current market weakness has not been significantly improved, and enterprise shipments are under pressure. However, supported by the cost side, it is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic LNG on July 27 was 4870 yuan / ton, up 1120 yuan / ton compared with 3750 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 29.87% in the month, up 97.7% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In July, the domestic LNG off-season market continued to rise, with an increase of about 30% in the month, almost doubling from the same period last year, and it was in the traditional off-season performance of consumption. The liquid price of this month increased mainly by the cost increase, the decrease of market supply, and the increase of high temperature weather demand. Meanwhile, the rising tone continued to boost, and the multiple positive superposition supported the domestic LNG price to rise sharply. The liquid price of various regions increased by more than 1000 yuan in the month, and the center of gravity moved up sharply. Now the liquid price in various parts of China has risen to more than 4500 yuan / ton. Shandong, Henan, Xinjiang and other places have exceeded 5000 passes and the sword finger is 6000. Recently, there are heavy rain in many places, which affect logistics in some regions. The market supply continues to decrease, the inventory of manufacturers is not under pressure, and the rising psychology of price rise is still the same. As for the current situation, the domestic LNG market is easy to rise and fall. At present, the price of domestic liquid and imported gas has been increased to some extent, including 4680-4900 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 4750-5050 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 4850-4950 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 4780-4880 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 5000-5210 yuan / ton in Henan, 4950-5200 yuan / ton in Hebei Province, 4600-5000 yuan / ton in Sichuan Province, and about 4500-5700 yuan / ton of air intake.

region Specifications July 27th July 1st Rise and fall

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 4680-4900 3450-3800 + 1230/+1100

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 4750-5050 3670-3800 + 1080/+1250

Shanxi liquified natural gas 4850-4950 3600-3800 + 1250/+1150

Ningxia liquified natural gas 4780-4880 3680-3850 + 1100/+1030

Henan liquified natural gas 5000-5210 3670-3850 + 1330/+1360

Hebei liquified natural gas 4950-5200 3750-3950 + 1200/+1250

Sichuan liquified natural gas 4600-5000 3500-3900 + 1100/+1100

The price of LNG increased, which led to the increase and decrease of downstream products:

Methanol, July 26, methanol reference price is 2585.00, compared with July 1 (2555.00), it is up 1.17%, and the factory quotation of enterprises in the Middle East of Shandong Province is stable around 2550-2600 yuan / ton; Dongying, Zibo and other surrounding industries in early Zhou state of mind partial to watch, pay attention to the price dynamics in Northwest China. The factory quotation of enterprises in southern Shandong Province was stable to 2600 yuan / ton, and the regional commencement fluctuated in a narrow range. The local delivery of Linyi was 2570 yuan / ton, and the demand of downstream was not good.

Liquid ammonia, recently, the domestic liquid ammonia market continued to rise. According to the monitoring of the business agency, liquid ammonia has been in high consolidation from June to early July after a big rise in May. Since mid July, the liquid ammonia market started again, and continued to rise, with a strong increase. According to the monitoring of the business society, liquid ammonia rose 6.72% in the last two weeks (July 12-22). At present, the market price range in Shandong is 4500-4800 yuan / ton, and some quotations have broken through the 4800 mark, reaching the highest level in history. The soaring price of liquid ammonia is the result of the double effects of high cost and tight supply and demand.

Urea, on July 26, the reference price of urea was 2810.00, up 0.36% compared with July 1 (2800.00). The price of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas has increased slightly in recent years, and the cost support is strengthened. From the aspect of demand, there are a few fertilizer dressing phenomena in North China and East China, and the agricultural demand is general; Downstream compound fertilizer, rubber plate factory, melamine enterprises can start, mostly follow up with the use of low and appropriate amount. From the aspect of supply: the unit maintenance of urea enterprises is still in the near future, the start-up recovery is slow, the daily production is still less than 160000 tons, the supply end is tight, and the enterprise inventory and social inventory are also kept in a lower position. International: on the evening of July 13, India issued a new round of import bidding, which has boosted the mentality of domestic market. Overall, the support of urea cost is strengthened, downstream demand is weakened and urea supply is tight.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of liquefied natural gas of business society believe that: at present, there are shutdown and maintenance of liquid plants such as Hongxing, Dazhou Huixin and other liquid plants in Ningxia, and the rain in some areas, the market supply has been tightened, the inventory of manufacturers is not under pressure, the sales pressure is not large, the rising psychology of price rising is still high. It is expected that the domestic liquid gas market will not decrease in the short term, and the price may continue to rise.